Digg! Monday, January 23, 2006

Meanwhile, at 1 Yawkey Way...

At some point last Thursday night, Theo Epstein slipped through the unlocked door, hung up his coat, and turned off the light that had been so lovingly left on for him at the Red Sox front office (which in my head at this moment looks a lot like my grandma's old pea green, linoleum-lined kitchen). Yes, that's right Sox fans, The Boy Wonder has re-entered the building.

Truth be told, this probably doesn't mean a whole lot other than we all can sleep a little more soundly at night because we know Theo is at the helm. Or is he? What's going to happen with Larry? Nothing, says J. Henry. Ben and Jed? Your guess is as good as mine, they say. All we know is that he's going to be full time in baseball operations, and that more details will come this week. Realistically, he's not going the be renamed the GM, since that was his old place and if he wanted his old place, then, well, why leave in the first place? More on this after the press conference.

Ranking just after Theo's return is the rumor that the Sox have all of a sudden figured out how to fill the vacancies they have in CF and at SS. Coco Crisp anyone? He's the apple of the Boy Wonder and Dynamic Duo's eyes and it now appears he's going to be in a Boston uniform before the week is out. Unfortunately, it's going to come at the cost of Andy Marte, the top prospect we picked up from the Braves in the Renteria debacle, and Guillermo Mota, the wunder-reliever from FLA that came over with Beckett. Marte's stats are listed in an earlier post, but let's take a quick gander at Crisp and Mota.

COCO CRISP: Batting
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2002 22 CLE AL 32 127 16 33 9 2 1 9 4 1 11 19 .260 .314 .386 49 3 2 0 0 0
2003 23 CLE AL 99 414 55 110 15 6 3 27 15 9 23 51 .266 .302 .353 146 7 3 1 0 4
2004 24 CLE AL 139 491 78 146 24 2 15 71 20 13 36 69 .297 .344 .446 219 9 2 4 0 8
2005 25 CLE AL 145 594 86 178 42 4 16 69 15 6 44 81 .300 .345 .465 276 13 5 1 0 7
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
4 Seasons 415 1626 235 467 90 14 35 176 54 29 114 220 .287 .332 .424 690 32 12 6 0 19
*www.baseball-reference.com

COCO CRISP: Fielding
G PO A E DP FP RNG THR
LF/CF Career Total 404 896 14 11 4 .988 97 84
*baseball-reference.com; Baseball Encyclopedia

GUILLERMO MOTA: Pitching
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1999 25 MON NL 2 4 51 0 0 0 18 0 55.3 54 24 18 5 25 27 2 1 243 3 1 2.93 4.70 161 1.428
2000 26 MON NL 1 1 29 0 0 0 7 0 30.0 27 21 20 3 12 24 2 1 126 0 1 6.00 4.64 77 1.300
2001 27 MON NL 1 3 53 0 0 0 12 0 49.7 51 30 29 9 18 31 1 1 212 1 0 5.26 4.62 88 1.389
2002 28 LAD NL 1 3 43 0 0 0 11 0 60.7 45 30 28 4 27 49 2 3 256 6 0 4.15 3.79 91 1.187
2003 29 LAD NL 6 3 76 0 0 0 18 1 105.0 78 23 23 7 26 99 1 0 410 4 0 1.97 4.03 204 0.990
2004 30 TOT NL 9 8 78 0 0 0 18 4 96.7 75 33 33 8 37 85 4 5 393 6 0 3.07 4.13 134 1.159
LAD NL 8 4 52 0 0 0 11 1 63.0 51 15 15 4 27 52 2 5 259 5 0 2.14 4.14 193 1.238
FLA NL 1 4 26 0 0 0 7 3 33.7 24 18 18 4 10 33 2 0 134 1 0 4.81 4.10 85 1.010
2005 31 FLA NL 2 2 56 0 0 0 24 2 67.0 65 38 35 5 32 60 1 4 293 7 0 4.70 4.02 85 1.448
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
7 Yr WL% .478 22 24 386 0 0 0 108 7 464.3 395 199 186 41 177 375 13 15 1933 27 2 3.61 4.20 116 1.232
*baseball-reference.com

The Sox are interested in Crisp for a couple of publicized reasons, but mainly because a. he's young, b. he's under control of the FO for the next few years, and c. he is a good leadoff hitter and defensive outfielder... or so they say. He's only posted a career OBP of .332, and while he is fast, he's not necessarily the best defender. Don't look at the errors, because as we all know, errors is a poor stat. Instead, look at his range (RNG) and arm strength (THR). Interpret those numbers (from the Encyclopedia) by taking 100 as the league average, and anything lower as worse, higher as better. His range is just about league average, but his throwing is terrible, and compared to Johnny Damon (which is what this is all about isn't it? trying to replace Johnny?) he's honestly not too bad. Johnny's career RNG is exactly 100, and I'm pretty sure I have a better THR because his is 74. Ouch. Okay, so Crisp can cover ground ok, and is marginally better with his arm than Caveman. But can he hit?

Johnny's offensive prowess needs no discussion, but the belief is that Crisp can hit pretty well, and that he's really improving. It's honestly not a bad assertion, what with his last two seasons being .297/.344 and .300/.345, respectively. He'll probably hit around 20 HR give or take a few every year, and score his share of runs. The real question is, can Coco lead off? His reputation in Cleveland was that of a clutch hitter more than a leadoff guy, but you never know.

The things we'd give up for Crisp are significant, in that Marte's potential ceiling is much higher than Crisp's, and that the Red Sox bullpen is much better and much deeper with Guillermo Mota in it. If you think about it, one of the biggest weaknesses of the 2005 Sox was the bullpen, and in this offseason they've signed 3 very solid to very good relievers to bolster the back half. Along with Julian Tavarez, Mota provides a killer set of relievers before Foulke takes the mound. With Tavarez signing a multi-year deal and having the nutjob mentality and intensity required to pitch out of the Boston bullpen, Mota does become expendable. There are several young arms waiting in the minor league wings to come up and help out the Big Club, and Mota's departure would make room for them.

I guess what I'm saying is that this is not necessarily the worst trade in the world, as Crisp is a legit player for CF. It just makes me a little uncomfortable to know that when we traded for one of the best position prospects in the major leagues, we became willing to ship him and a great reliever away for an above average CF who's not even an All-Star. Should we do it? I don't know. I honestly could go either way on this.

INTERESTING: Bronson Arroyo loves Boston so much that he accepted a 3 yr/12 million dollar deal with the Sox during the middle of last week, a deal that ran contrary to his agents' desires as it is below market value. This is the kind of thing that I miss in baseball. Bronson says he wants to finish his career in Boston, and he actually has the balls to prove it, knowing that he's getting guaranteed money and the chance to stay in the plays he wants. Makes people like a certain center fielder and a certain Dominican pitcher look foolish when the say they want to finish their career here but leave because a few million more dollars. The downside to this trade is that it makes Arroyo more attractive to smaller clubs, as he's below value and locked up for a few years. He's legit trade bait. I will be ridiculously sad if they trade him for somebody, anybody. These are the kinds of players I want to root for. They help me forget about the nasty business side of this, our national pasttime.

Oh yea, and Alex Gonzalez? JUST SAY NO (unless he plays for cold turkey sandwiches...)

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