2006 Position Analysis: 1B

For the last 3 years Kentucky Fried Kevin Millar has occupied first base for the Sox, making it in many cases a defensive dead zone. Doug Mientkiewicz and John Olerud each spent time at first as defensive platoons, and it looks like this year won't be much different. Although our resident loudmouth Texan has left chowder for crab cakes, the formula at first base will not be entirely foreign.

Whereas there appear to be logjams in the middle infield and on the bench, the cast members for first base in 2006 seem pretty well in order. Kevin Youkilis (the "Greek God of Walks" mentioned in Michael Lewis' Moneyball) has made the switch from third base to first base because of the arrival of Gold Glover Mike Lowell. Playing the role of defensive platooner is J.T. Snow, who signed in late November/early December as a free agent from San Francisco. Let's have a look:

STARTER
KEVIN YOUKILIS

YR Team LG Age G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP Avg Obp Slg Ops
01 Low NYPL 22 59 183 52 58 14 2 3 28 4 3 70 28 5 0 0 2 0 .317 .512 .464 .976
02 Aug SAL 23 15 53 5 15 5 0 0 6 0 0 13 8 1 1 0 0 0 .283 .433 .377 .810
02 Sar FSL 23 76 268 45 79 16 0 3 48 0 2 49 37 15 2 0 7 5 .295 .422 .388 .810
02 Tren East 23 44 160 34 55 10 0 5 26 5 4 31 18 5 1 0 1 1 .344 .462 .500 .962
03 Port East 24 94 312 74 10 2231 6 37 7 0 86 40 15 2 0 4 7 .327 .487 .465 .952
03 Paw IL 24 32 109 9 18 3 0 2 15 0 1 18 21 3 2 0 2 2 .165 .295 .248 .543
04 Low NYPL 25 2 4 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 .750 .857 1.500 2.357
04 Paw IL 25 38 154 25 41 12 0 3 18 2 0 19 28 2 1 1 2 1 .266 .350 .403 .753
04 Bos AL 25 72 208 38 54 11 0 7 35 0 1 33 45 4 0 0 3 1 .260 .367 .413 .780
05 Paw IL 26 43 152 30 49 15 1 8 27 1 2 35 29 5 0 0 2 0 .322 .459 .592 1.051
05 Bos AL 26 44 79 11 22 7 0 1 9 0 1 14 19 2 0 0 0 0 .278 .400 .405 .805
MLB Totals: 2 years 116 287 49 76 18 0 8 44 0 2 47 64 6 0 0 3 1 .265 .376 .411 787
Minor League Totals: 5 years 403 1395 275 420 99 5 30 205 19 12 323 209 52 9 1 20 16 .301 .444 .444 888
MLB Average: 2 years 161 400 68 106 25 0 11 61 0 2 65 89 8 0 0 4 1 .265 .376 .411 787


OFFENSE: Youkilis is a gap hitter with good bat control. Knows the strike zone. Is not afraid to work the count and hits to all fields. Has a short, compact swing and good balance. Can be jammed with better fastballs. DEFENSE: His reaction and hands are only average. Has an unconventional throwing motion is erratic because of his footwork. Is not agile and has bad balance. Is much better going to his left. OUTLOOK: Youkilis will get on base, but he needs to produce more runs to be an everyday player. 6.0

BACKUP/PLATOON
J.T. SNOW

Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1992 24 NYY AL 7 14 1 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 5 5 .143 .368 .214 3 0 0 1 0 0
1993 25 CAL AL 129 419 60 101 18 2 16 57 3 0 55 88 .241 .328 .408 171 7 6 4 2 10
1994 26 CAL AL 61 223 22 49 4 0 8 30 0 1 19 48 .220 .289 .345 77 2 1 1 3 2
1995 27 CAL AL 143 544 80 157 22 1 24 102 2 1 52 91 .289 .353 .465 253 5 2 4 3 16
1996 28 CAL AL 155 575 69 148 20 1 17 67 1 6 56 96 .257 .327 .384 221 2 3 6 5 19
1997 29 SFG NL 157 531 81 149 36 1 28 104 6 4 96 124 .281 .387 .510 271 2 7 13 1 8
1998 30 SFG NL 138 435 65 108 29 1 15 79 1 2 58 84 .248 .332 .423 184 0 7 3 0 12
1999 31 SFG NL 161 570 93 156 25 2 24 98 0 4 86 121 .274 .370 .451 257 1 6 7 5 16
2000 32 SFG NL 155 536 82 152 33 2 19 96 1 3 66 129 .284 .365 .459 246 0 14 6 11 20
2001 33 SFG NL 101 285 43 70 12 1 8 34 0 0 55 81 .246 .371 .379 108 0 4 10 4 2
2002 34 SFG NL 143 422 47 104 26 2 6 53 0 0 59 90 .246 .344 .360 152 0 6 5 7 11
2003 35 SFG NL 103 330 48 90 18 3 8 51 1 2 55 55 .273 .387 .418 138 1 2 0 8 7
2004 36 SFG NL 107 346 62 113 32 1 12 60 4 0 58 61 .327 .429 .529 183 2 4 0 7 5
2005 37 SFG NL 117 367 40 101 17 2 4 40 1 0 32 61 .275 .343

OFFENSE: Snow has a very fluid stroke but has had a slight decline in bat speed and a decline in power. Is a gap to gap hitter with line-drive power. Is more of a high-ball hitter. Has trouble with lefthanded pitching. Will be selective at the plate. Does not have the run production typical of the position. DEFENSE: Snow is an outstanding, athletic first baseman with soft, quick hands and excellent agility. Gets good jumps on balls to either side and also is good on short hops. OUTLOOK: His offensive numbers should continue to decline as he begins his 15th big-league season. Is more valuable on a club that has a lot of power at other positions. 7.9

As it stands right now, it appears that the Red Sox front office is finally willing to give Youk a shot at a starting spot on the big league roster. Over the last two seasons he has demonstrated, in stints as Bill Mueller's replacement. He's a contact hitter to all fields, he has occasional power and should produce decently as the starting first baseman. His defense is nothing to brag about, with below average range and absoultely average hands. It could be argued that he is a defensive improvement over Kevin Millar simply because he seems to like a thinker, someone with the ability to assess a situation clearly most times. His true strength, though, is his ability to get on base. His strike zone knowledge and his bat control will help him compensate for the lack of outright slugging ability. He won't be the typical first baseman, but I feel he will do very well.

His backup/platoon partner, J.T. Snow, is widely renowned for being able to lash the leather with the best of them, as he was the winner of six Gold Gloves across both leagues. Snow has never really been an offensive powerhouse, but he's decent against righties, and in addition to providing the late-inning defensive sub that Tito is so fond of, Snow will be a good option against tough righties. We should also consider it a possibility that, should Youk fall flat on his face in the regular spot, Snow would see more and more time.

Final Prediction:
STARTER: Kevin Youkilis
BACKUP: J.T. Snow