2006 Position Analysis: 2B

So here I am, sitting in a small college auditorium by myself, an hour before Buster Olney is scheduled to come and speak/sign books, when lo and behold, I notice I have wireless access. Seems like as good a time as any to sit down and crank out the next position, second base.Before I get to that, however, I should note that there was an interesting criticism posted at The House That Dewey Built written on the latest piece written by Jim Donaldson of the Providence Journal. Donaldson is given a good going over, and not unjustly so. Here's a taste:

By virtue of parenthetically telling you the player’s batting average and on-base percentage, along with how many home runs, RBI’s and games played a player logged in the prior season alone, Donaldson feels that he is able to perform the sort of statistical analysis that can allow one to draw conclusions... To simply reel off numbers without mentioning where either player played his home games manifests such a fundamental lack of understanding of the game of baseball that it becomes almost unthinkable to me that he gets to professionally cover the sport.

Big words, but he's got a point. The reason I mention it is because, well, I'm doing here exactly what Donaldson was trying to do in his ProJo piece. Now, I may not be the sharpest stat wizard in the classroom, but even I think it's common sense to think that Pro Player, PETCO, and Fenway all have some sort of effect on the offensive output of a player. OK, so, check that out, and let's move on to more interesting things.

Second base in the Fens over the last several years has been nothing short of a revolving door. In 2005, it was Mark Bellhorn, Tony Graffanino, and Alex Cora. 2004 saw Bellhorn again and Pokey Reese. 2003 was Todd Walker, and 2002 was Rey Sanchez. You have to trek all the way back to 2000 and 2001 to find two solid seasons of the same player on the other half of that double play combination: José Offerman. The point is, we've got new faces even now. We had quasi-stability from the second half of 2004 (after Nomar went down) and through much of 2005 in the shape of our super-quiet, bushy-sideburned switch-hitting Human Strikeout, Mark Bellhorn. This year there is a similar situation, in that Tony Graffanino, a mid-2005 acquisition from the Kansas City Royals, came to Boston to replace an offensively anemic Bellhorn. Graffanino provided a steady glove and a decent bat, filling the role enough to avoid any unjust barbs from WEEI callers. Of course, we're all familiar with the fact that in Game 2 of the 2005 ALDS against the White Sox it was Graffanino's Buckner-esque error that took the wind out of Boston's sails, as they had until that point been ahead.

A free agent at the end of the '05 season, Graffanino managed to avoid being a complete scapegoat thanks to his regular season play. The front office offered him arbitration, most likely to recoup the draft picks they would be due when he turned it down. The reason for this line of thinking was the trade in the early months of the offseason with San Diego that brought All-Star Mark Loretta to Boston for our loveable backup backstop, Doug Mirabelli. Loretta, 34, is considered a solid, all-around second baseman, and it is to him that the starting job will likely be assigned. Yet almost as a way of sticking it to the front office, Graffanino, who should've been nothing but a short list of compensation draft picks, ended up accepting arbitration from the Sox. Hm. Well, let's have a look.


STARTER
MARK LORETTA
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1995 23 MIL AL 19 50 13 13 3 0 1 3 1 1 4 7 .260 .327 .380 19 1 0 0 1 1
1996 24 MIL AL 73 154 20 43 3 0 1 13 2 1 14 15 .279 .339 .318 49 2 0 0 0 7
1997 25 MIL AL 132 418 56 120 17 5 5 47 5 5 47 60 .287 .354 .388 162 5 10 2 2 15
1998 26 MIL NL 140 434 55 137 29 0 6 54 9 6 42 47 .316 .382 .424 184 4 4 1 7 14
1999 27 MIL NL 153 587 93 170 34 5 5 67 4 1 52 59 .290 .354 .390 229 9 6 1 10 14
2000 28 MIL NL 91 352 49 99 21 1 7 40 0 3 37 38 .281 .350 .406 143 8 1 2 1 9
2001 29 MIL NL 102 384 40 111 14 2 2 29 1 2 28 46 .289 .346 .352 135 7 3 0 7 6
2002 30 TOT NL 107 283 33 86 18 0 4 27 1 1 32 37 .304 .381 .410 116 6 3 1 5 7
MIL NL 86 217 23 58 14 0 2 19 0 0 23 32 .267 .350 .359 78 6 1 1 5 6
HOU NL 21 66 10 28 4 0 2 8 1 1 9 5 .424 .481 .576 38 0 2 0 0 1
2003 31 SDP NL 154 589 74 185 28 4 13 72 5 4 54 62 .314 .372 .441 260 3 4 2 3 17
2004 32 SDP NL 154 620 108 208 47 2 16 76 5 3 58 45 .335 .391 .495 307 4 16 3 9 10
2005 33 SDP NL 105 404 54 113 16 1 3 38 8 4 45 34 .280 .360 .347 140 2 4 4 8 11
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
11 Seasons 1230 4275 595 1285 230 20 63 466 41 31 413 450 .301 .365 .408 1744 51 51 16 53 111
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 563 78 169 30 3 8 61 5 4 54 59 .301 .365 .408 230 7 7 2 7 15
Career High 154 620 108 208 47 5 16 76 9 6 58 62 .335 .391 .495 307 9 16 4 10 17

OFFENSE: Loretta has a short, compact stroke and good bat control. Has lost bat speed because of a thumb injury but still makes good contact. Can adjust with the count and use the whole field. Could not drive the ball last season. Is a good hitter with runners on base and is deadly against lefthanded pitching. DEFENSE: His technique is extremely sound, and his instincts are outstanding. Positions himself well and has good hands. Makes the pivot on the double play well and avoids contact. Has an accurate arm. Gets a good jump on the balls to either side. OUTLOOK: Loretta is a steady, professional player with exceptional instincts and intelligence. Always plays under control and should have no complications coming back from the injury. 8.0

BACKUP
TONY GRAFFANINO
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1996 24 ATL NL 22 46 7 8 1 1 0 2 0 0 4 13 .174 .250 .239 11 0 1 0 1 0
1997 25 ATL NL 104 186 33 48 9 1 8 20 6 4 26 46 .258 .344 .446 83 3 5 1 1 3
1998 26 ATL NL 105 289 32 61 14 1 5 22 1 4 24 68 .211 .275 .318 92 1 1 0 2 7
1999 27 TBD AL 39 130 20 41 9 4 2 19 3 2 9 22 .315 .364 .492 64 2 0 0 1 1
2000 28 TOT AL 70 168 33 46 6 1 2 17 7 4 22 27 .274 .363 .357 60 1 1 0 2 2
TBD AL 13 20 8 6 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 .300 .364 .350 7 0 0 0 1 1
CHW AL 57 148 25 40 5 1 2 16 7 4 21 25 .270 .363 .358 53 1 1 0 1 1
2001 29 CHW AL 74 145 23 44 9 0 2 15 4 1 16 29 .303 .370 .407 59 4 3 0 1 4
2002 30 CHW AL 70 229 35 60 12 4 6 31 2 1 22 38 .262 .329 .428 98 4 2 1 2 2
2003 31 CHW AL 90 250 51 65 15 3 7 23 8 0 24 37 .260 .331 .428 107 3 1 1 3 1
2004 32 KCR AL 75 278 37 73 11 0 3 26 10 2 27 38 .263 .332 .335 93 4 2 0 3 5
2005 33 TOT AL 110 379 68 117 17 3 7 38 7 2 31 51 .309 .366 .425 161 2 1 2 4 14
KCR AL 59 191 29 57 5 2 3 18 3 1 22 28 .298 .377 .393 75 2 0 1 2 6
BOS AL 51 188 39 60 12 1 4 20 4 1 9 23 .319 .355 .457 86 0 1 1 2 8
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
10 Seasons 759 2100 339 563 103 18 42 213 48 20 205 369 .268 .336 .394 828 24 17 5 20 39
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 448 72 120 22 4 9 45 10 4 44 79 .268 .336 .394 177 5 4 1 4 8
Career High 110 379 68 117 17 4 8 38 10 4 31 68 .309 .366 .428 161 4 5 2 4 14

OFFENSE: Graffanino has a long stroke and a slider-speed bat, making him vulnerable to inside pitches. Shows occasional power and can hit with runners in scoring position. Has become a better hitter and he has learned to look for pitches. Is a below-average runner. DEFENSE: He has good hands and some quickness on the double-play pivot. Has a strong arm and a quick release. Has limited range. OUTLOOK: Graffanino has become an ideal role player by improving at the plate. 6.1

What strikes you first when you look compare the stats from both players is that Loretta is a significant offensive improvement. One of the misleading bits of informations spread in New England was that Graffanino was a solid contributor with the stick, and so little was known about Loretta on this coast that he was seen as only a minor upgrade. When you look at it though, Loretta's career OBP is almost 30 whole points higher than Graffanino, and his SLG is just past the .400 mark. In 2004, while playing for the Padres in notoriously hitter-unfriendly PETCO, Loretta posted .335/.391/.495 in 154 games. That's really nothing to shake a stick at. Granted, that was one of the best years of Loretta's career, but if you take the ability to hit in the abyss that is PETCO and put it in the hitter-happy Fens, you could have a solid contributor keeping Dustin Pedroia's seat warm somewhere at the top of the lineup. The defensive difference between these two is nothing to make a big deal of, save for the fact that Loretta has shown greater ranger over his career than Graf.

I think it's safe to say we're going to see Loretta as the everyday second baseman for the Sox. He's about as good a stopgap as you can find in the majors, and he's smart enough, and consistent enough to win over the Hub fans.

Final Prediction
STARTER: Mark Loretta
BACKUP: Tony Graffanino


Holy crap! I almost forgot Alex Cora! That loveable little utility man is actually probably our best bet to be the backup second baseman, and here's why (it ties into the whole arbitration/compensation picks situation). With a logjam in the the middle infield, there's a very strong chance that Graf will actually end up getting traded before opening day. He's definitely good enough to play every day on most big clubs, and if the Sox can turn him into younger players, why wouldn't they? So let's look at Cora:

ALEX CORA
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1998 22 LAD NL 29 33 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 8 .121 .194 .182 6 2 0 0 1 0
1999 23 LAD NL 11 30 2 5 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 4 .167 .194 .200 6 0 0 0 1 1
2000 24 LAD NL 109 353 39 84 18 6 4 32 4 1 26 53 .238 .302 .357 126 6 2 4 7 6
2001 25 LAD NL 134 405 38 88 18 3 4 29 0 2 31 58 .217 .285 .306 124 3 2 6 8 16
2002 26 LAD NL 115 258 37 75 14 4 5 28 7 2 26 38 .291 .371 .434 112 2 0 4 7 3
2003 27 LAD NL 148 477 39 119 24 3 4 34 4 2 16 59 .249 .287 .338 161 9 2 3 10 5
2004 28 LAD NL 138 405 47 107 9 4 10 47 3 4 47 41 .264 .364 .380 154 12 2 10 18 9
2005 29 TOT AL 96 250 25 58 8 4 3 24 7 2 11 30 .232 .275 .332 83 4 3 0 5 6
CLE AL 49 146 11 30 5 2 1 8 6 0 5 18 .205 .250 .288 42 1 1 0 4 3
BOS AL 47 104 14 28 3 2 2 16 1 2 6 12 .269 .310 .394 41 3 2 0 1 3
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
8 Seasons 780 2211 228 540 92 25 30 197 25 13 159 291 .244 .310 .349 772 38 11 27 57 46
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 459 47 112 19 5 6 41 5 3 33 60 .244 .310 .349 160 8 2 6 12 10
Career High 148 477 47 119 24 6 10 47 7 4 47 59 .291 .371 .434 161 12 3 10 18 16

OFFENSE: Cora has a short stroke and will turn on inside pitches. Doesn't have a quick bat. Likes the ball down and has problems with hard throwers. Is a patient hitter but consistently is behind in the count. Is not a good runner and has below-average base-stealing instincts. DEFENSE: Cora has quick, soft hands and good defensive instincts. Has good agility and plus range to either side. OUTLOOK: Cora's struggles at the plate, particularly agains lefthanders, keep him from being a regular. 5.8

He can't hit a lick, that's for sure, but Cora's real value comes with his glove. Although his statistics don't quite show it, Cora is widely celebrated as being one of the best defenders and heads-up ballplayers in baseball. I'm sure many of you remember that he was part of that stellar Dodger infield in 2004, and we all know that he competently filled in at both shortstop and second base for the Sox in 2005. So there, I guess I should revise this a bit.

Final Prediction
STARTER: Mark Loretta
BACKUP: Alex Cora
TRADE BAIT: Tony Graffanino