2006 Position Analysis: OF

I know that all of you readers out there are starting to ask yourselves, "Why the heck does he keep changing around the formatting of the site? Well, boredom is a pretty big reason, but I've also been looking for just the right combination of personal touch, fidelity to the fact that this is a site dedicated specifically to the Red Sox, and the effective balance of colors and white spaces. So yea, boredom. Anyways, let's keep going with our positional analysis.
Spring has sprung, pitchers and catchers have been inside the Fort since Sunday, and the position players have started to trickle in the front gate. One of the foremost topics around the water coolers in Red Sox Nation has been the status of one Manuel Aristides Ramirez Onelcida, and whether or not he'll show his smiling face 'neath the Monster come April. Whether or not he does will not only affect the pop in the middle of the Sox' lineup but also the general makeup of the outfield. And that is where we will be focusing today, the green pastures of Fenway's outfield. Just a note: in addition to the career hitting stats from Baseball Reference and the scouting reports from The Sporting News (which will be added once I get back to New England and access my book) I’m going to be inserting the Plate Appearance Outcome percentages calculated by the good folks at The Hardball Times in their 2006 Annual. For batters with more than 300 AB in 2005 they break down the sum of those plate appearances into K% / BB% / GB% / OF% / IF% / LD% / OTHER%. And once get the 2006 Baseball Prospectus Guide at the end of this month, I’ll hopefully plug in PECOTA predictions (I could get them now, but I’ll just wait a little bit and save 20 bucks…).

STARTERS (LF/CF/RF):
MANNY RAMÍREZ [LF]
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1993 21 CLE AL 22 53 5 9 1 0 2 5 0 0 2 8 .170 .200 .302 16 0 0 0 0 3
1994 22 CLE AL 91 290 51 78 22 0 17 60 4 2 42 72 .269 .357 .521 151 0 4 4 0 6
1995 23 CLE AL 137 484 85 149 26 1 31 107 6 6 75 112 .308 .402 .558 270 2 5 6 5 13
1996 24 CLE AL 152 550 94 170 45 3 33 112 8 5 85 104 .309 .399 .582 320 0 9 8 3 18
1997 25 CLE AL 150 561 99 184 40 0 26 88 2 3 79 115 .328 .415 .538 302 0 4 5 7 19
1998 26 CLE AL 150 571 108 168 35 2 45 145 5 3 76 121 .294 .377 .599 342 0 10 6 6 18
1999 27 CLE AL 147 522 131 174 34 3 44 165 2 4 96 131 .333 .442 .663 346 0 9 9 13 12
2000 28 CLE AL 118 439 92 154 34 2 38 122 1 1 86 117 .351 .457 .697 306 0 4 9 3 9
2001 29 BOS AL 142 529 93 162 33 2 41 125 0 1 81 147 .306 .405 .609 322 0 2 25 8 9
2002 30 BOS AL 120 436 84 152 31 0 33 107 0 0 73 85 .349 .450 .647 282 0 1 14 8 13
2003 31 BOS AL 154 569 117 185 36 1 37 104 3 1 97 94 .325 .427 .587 334 0 5 28 8 22
2004 32 BOS AL 152 568 108 175 44 0 43 130 2 4 82 124 .308 .397 .613 348 0 7 15 6 17
2005 33 BOS AL 152 554 112 162 30 1 45 144 1 0 80 119 .292 .388 .594 329 0 6 9 10 20
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
13 Seasons 6126 1922 15 1414 30 1349 .314 .409 .599 2 66 138 77 179
1687 1179 411 435 34 954 3668
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 588 113 185 39 1 42 136 3 3 92 130 .314 .409 .599 352 0 6 13 7 17
Career High 154 571 131 185 45 3 45 165 8 6 97 147 .351 .457 .697 348 2 10 28 13 22

**Plate Appearance Outcome (PAO): 650 AB/ 18% SO/ 14% BB/ 25% GB/ 24% OF/ 2% IF/ 16% LD/ 0% OTH


COCO CRISP [CF]
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2002 22 CLE AL 32 127 16 33 9 2 1 9 4 1 11 19 .260 .314 .386 49 3 2 0 0 0
2003 23 CLE AL 99 414 55 110 15 6 3 27 15 9 23 51 .266 .302 .353 146 7 3 1 0 4
2004 24 CLE AL 139 491 78 146 24 2 15 71 20 13 36 69 .297 .344 .446 219 9 2 4 0 8
2005 25 CLE AL 145 594 86 178 42 4 16 69 15 6 44 81 .300 .345 .465 276 13 5 1 0 7
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
4 Seasons 415 1626 235 467 90 14 35 176 54 29 114 220 .287 .332 .424 690 32 12 6 0 19
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 635 92 182 35 5 14 69 21 11 45 86 .287 .332 .424 269 12 5 2 0 7
Career High 145 594 86 178 42 6 16 71 20 13 44 81 .300 .345 .465 276 13 5 4 0 8

**PAO: 656/ 12%/ 7%/ 36%/ 23%/ 4%/ 15%/ 4%


TROT NIXON [RF]
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1996 22 BOS AL 2 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 .500 .500 .750 3 0 0 0 0 0
1998 24 BOS AL 13 27 3 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .259 .286 .296 8 0 0 0 0 0
1999 25 BOS AL 124 381 67 103 22 5 15 52 3 1 53 75 .270 .357 .472 180 2 8 1 3 7
2000 26 BOS AL 123 427 66 118 27 8 12 60 8 1 63 85 .276 .368 .461 197 5 5 2 2 11
2001 27 BOS AL 148 535 100 150 31 4 27 88 7 4 79 113 .280 .376 .505 270 6 6 1 7 8
2002 28 BOS AL 152 532 81 136 36 3 24 94 4 2 65 109 .256 .338 .470 250 3 7 2 5 7
2003 29 BOS AL 134 441 81 135 24 6 28 87 4 2 65 96 .306 .396 .578 255 1 3 4 3 3
2004 30 BOS AL 48 149 24 47 9 1 6 23 0 0 15 24 .315 .377 .510 76 0 2 1 1 3
2005 31 BOS AL 124 408 64 112 29 1 13 67 2 1 53 59 .275 .357 .446 182 0 6 3 3 7
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
9 Seasons 868 2904 488 810 180 28 125 471 29 11 394 565 .279 .366 .489 1421 17 37 14 24 46
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 542 91 151 34 5 23 88 5 2 74 105 .279 .366 .489 265 3 7 3 4 9
Career High 152 535 100 150 36 8 28 94 8 4 79 113 .306 .396 .578 270 6 8 4 7 11

**PAO: 470/ 13%/ 12%/ 30%/ 28%/ 3%/ 15%/ 0%


BACKUPS/PLATOONS:
GABE KAPLER
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1998 22 DET AL 7 25 3 5 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 4 .200 .231 .280 7 0 0 0 0 0
1999 23 DET AL 130 416 60 102 22 4 18 49 11 5 42 74 .245 .315 .447 186 4 4 0 2 7
2000 24 TEX AL 116 444 59 134 32 1 14 66 8 4 42 57 .302 .360 .473 210 2 3 2 0 12
2001 25 TEX AL 134 483 77 129 29 1 17 72 23 6 61 70 .267 .348 .437 211 2 7 2 3 10
2002 26 TOT 112 315 37 88 16 4 2 34 11 4 16 53 .279 .313 .375 118 7 3 0 1 5
TEX AL 72 196 25 51 12 1 0 17 5 2 8 30 .260 .285 .332 65 7 3 0 0 3
COL NL 40 119 12 37 4 3 2 17 6 2 8 23 .311 .359 .445 53 0 0 0 1 2
2003 27 TOT 107 225 39 61 13 1 4 27 6 2 22 41 .271 .336 .391 88 0 0 1 0 8
COL NL 39 67 10 15 2 0 0 4 2 0 8 18 .224 .307 .254 17 0 0 1 0 3
BOS AL 68 158 29 46 11 1 4 23 4 2 14 23 .291 .349 .449 71 0 0 0 0 5
2004 28 BOS AL 136 290 51 79 14 1 6 33 5 4 15 49 .272 .311 .390 113 1 2 0 2 5
2005 29 BOS AL 36 97 15 24 7 0 1 9 1 0 3 15 .247 .282 .351 34 1 1 0 2 1
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
8 Seasons 778 2295 341 622 133 13 62 290 67 25 202 363 .271 .330 .421 967 17 20 5 10 48
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 478 71 130 28 3 13 60 14 5 42 76 .271 .330 .421 201 4 4 1 2 10
Career High 136 483 77 134 32 4 18 72 23 6 61 74 .302 .360 .473 211 7 7 2 3 12


DUSTAN MOHR:
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2001 25 MIN AL 20 51 6 12 2 0 0 4 1 1 5 17 .235 .298 .275 14 0 1 0 0 0
2002 26 MIN AL 120 383 55 103 23 2 12 45 6 3 31 86 .269 .325 .433 166 2 0 3 1 5
2003 27 MIN AL 121 348 50 87 22 0 10 36 5 2 33 106 .250 .314 .399 139 2 3 0 1 10
2004 28 SFG NL 117 263 52 72 20 1 7 28 0 3 46 64 .274 .394 .437 115 4 3 3 8 5
2005 29 COL NL 98 266 34 57 10 3 17 38 1 2 23 94 .214 .280 .466 124 0 2 2 2 3
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
5 Seasons 476 1311 197 331 77 6 46 151 13 11 138 367 .252 .327 .426 558 8 9 8 12 23
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 446 67 113 26 2 16 51 4 4 47 125 .252 .327 .426 190 3 3 3 4 8
Career High 121 383 55 103 23 3 17 45 6 3 46 106 .274 .394 .466 166 4 3 3 8 10


WILLIE HARRIS
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2001 23 BAL AL 9 24 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 .125 .125 .167 4 1 0 0 0 0
2002 24 CHW AL 49 163 14 38 4 0 2 12 8 0 9 21 .233 .270 .294 48 3 2 0 0 3
2003 25 CHW AL 79 137 19 28 3 1 0 5 12 2 10 28 .204 .259 .241 33 3 0 0 0 1
2004 26 CHW AL 129 409 68 107 15 2 2 27 19 7 51 79 .262 .343 .323 132 7 3 0 1 4
2005 27 CHW AL 56 121 17 31 2 1 1 8 10 3 13 25 .256 .333 .314 38 4 0 0 1 1
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
5 Seasons 322 854 121 207 25 4 5 52 49 12 83 160 .242 .309 .299 255 18 5 0 2 9
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 430 61 104 13 2 3 26 25 6 42 80 .242 .309 .299 128 9 3 0 1 5
Career High 129 409 68 107 15 2 2 27 19 7 51 79 .262 .343 .323 132 7 3 0 1 4


ADAM STERN
Year Team Name League Age Org. Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP Avg Obp Slg Ops
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 U. of Nebraska NCAA 19 NCAA 38 61 17 12 4 1 1 12 2 0 2 14 0 2 0 1 .197 .222 .344 566
2000 U. of Nebraska NCAA 20 NCAA 60 216 54 77 12 2 0 45 12 3 24 26 3 9 4 6 .356 .421 .431 852
2001 U. of Nebraska NCAA 21 NCAA 64 267 68 78 8 4 5 47 27 5 34 33 6 9 3 1 .292 .381 .408 789
2001 Jamestown NYPL 21 Atl A 21 75 20 23 4 2 0 11 9 4 15 11 0 0 0 2 0 .307 .413 .413 826
2002 Myrtle Beach Caro 22 Atl A 119 462 65 117 22 10 3 47 40 8 27 89 3 2 10 1 3 .253 .298 .364 662
2003 GCL Braves GCL 23 Atl Rk 7 29 6 10 1 0 1 6 2 2 6 3 0 0 1 0 1 .345 .457 .483 940
2003 Myrtle Beach Caro 23 Atl A 28 103 11 20 2 0 0 6 7 3 13 21 0 0 4 1 1 .194 .282 .214 496
2004 Greenville Sou 24 Atl AA 102 394 64 127 26 6 8 47 27 10 35 58 2 2 1 3 2 .322 .378 .480 858
2005 Pawtucket IL 25 Bos AAA 20 81 16 26 8 0 2 14 3 1 8 10 1 1 1 1 2 .321 .385 .494 879
2005 Boston Red Sox AL 25 Bos MLB 36 15 4 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 .133 .188 .333 521
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Totals: 1 years 36 15 4 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 .133 .188 .333 521
Minor League Totals: 5 years 297 1144 182 323 63 18 14 131 88 28 104 192 6 5 17 8 9 .282 .343 .406 749


As we begin our examination in left field, the Red Sox have one of the best righthanded hitters of the last couple decades in Manny Ramírez. He despite his lackadaisical play on the defensive side of the ball, Ramirez is one of the top contributors in the game today, a perennial candidate for AL MVP. He should have 500 HR before his current contract with Boston expires, and a career OPS of 1.008, something that is nothing short of spectacular for a player who has never been accused of steroid use. Manny has power to all fields, and is considered one of the few batters in the League today capable of actually setting up a pitcher. In 2005 his season began rather slowly, and his numbers against lefthanders suffered enormously. To the naked eye, Ramirez looked less comfortable at the plate: his swing was long and he stood further out in the box, making him unusually susceptible to outside pitches. His numbers recovered, though, and he went on to post close to his usual numbers of .298/.388/.594 for the season. Defensively, Ramirez is about as poor as you can get, though with the short LF wall he can play an average defensive game. His arm strength is surprising, and he led the league in outfield assists. It goes without saying that Ramirez will, if he isn’t spun off in a terrible trade before the opening of the season, be the starting left fielder and occupy his usual spot in the 3 or 4 hole in the lineup next to David Ortiz. Who cares about his mental oddities? With a bat like that, I’d have no problem if he decided Saturday night he would go to the Avalon in his best designer miniskirt and stripper boots.

Coco Crisp has been the the talk of New England since late December, when Johnny Damon decided that money wasn’t the most important thing for him, and then went to sign a contract in the Bronx for $13 million more than Boston was offering. I guess his feelings were hurt. (Note: I’m actually not that bothered by the fact that he left, because I think this team needed to get younger. It just bothered me, and interestingly most Yankee fans I know, that Damon decided that the heart and soul of the Red Sox now wore pinstripes, and then he proceeded to rip apart every part of the team he didn’t think he was the leader of. Getting back to the point…)

Crisp has a lot of upside. In no particular order he’s young, he’s reasonably fast, has a below average arm that is better than Damon’s, he’s a switch hitter, and he gets the bat on the ball. His offensive numbers have climbed every year for the last three, batting around .300 with a ~.340 OBP. His power numbers aren’t spectacular, but they stand to improve a little batting in front of Loretta, Ortiz, and Ramirez. The dimensions of the triangle in Fenway's center field may give him a bit more trouble than left field at the Jake, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that would consider him any sort of defensive liability. He will not replace Johnny Damon, that much is for sure, at least for now. His range isn’t as good and his hair isn’t as long. But he can read, write, speak, and reference more pop culture than the latest Green Day album. He only cost the Sox one of the best prospects in the game (who was so good he got traded twice within the span of 2 months.) I think most people are starting to come to some sort of peace with the fact that the dynamic hitter at the top of the Sox lineup will not be back, and that he will be replaced with someone who has the potential to put up strong numbers in comparison without being a clubhouse jackass in the process.

Finally, in right field, Trot Nixon names his home. This self-proclaimed "dirt dog" was Boston's first round pick in the 1993 amateur draft, but has never really lived up to the expectations that preceded him. His entire career has been plagued by injuries to his back, his calf, his quad, his ability to hit lefties... everything. Nixon's overall offense has been impressive, posting a .279/.366/.489 line for his career, and his defense has also never been in question, as he puts everything into every play he makes. His range and speed have declined over the last couple years as a result of both age and injury, but he will, barring injury, be a steady fixture in right field for the majority of the 2006 season.

The backups and platoons are an interesting situation, to be sure. There are more than a few to choose from, and we're likely to see one or two with the Sox throughout the season. The sentimental favorite is Gabe Kapler, who in 2003, 2004, and 2005 endeared himself to the Boston fans with his huge grin, team attitude, and all-out style of play. The injury he suffered in 2005 to his Achilles has him sidelined for at least the first month or so of the season, probably more. I would consider him a favorite when his health catches up no only because of the fans, but also because of what he provides in the clubhouse. If you'll recall, it was Kapler in 2004 who called everyone on the team out in the press during that miserable three month stint of .500 baseball. And what's more, Tito loves him.

Still, you've got to be healthy to play, and among the three options outside of Gabe the Babe, Dustan Mohr (as a possible RF platoon against lefties) and Willie Harris (the speedy utility man from the White Sox) look to be moving in. Adam Stern is on the 40 man roster simply because of the requirements he's subject to as a Rule 5 draft pick. Once the 18 days left are served, look for him to be sent to Pawtucket to develop better routes to the ball and some plate discipline.

Final Prediction
STARTERS: Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp, Trot Nixon
BACKUPS/PLATOONs: Gabe Kapler (post-recovery), Dustan Mohr