2006 Red Sox Prospects

Prospects, prospects, prospects. It seems all we hear about during the offseason is this guy or that guy, tearing it up in low A ball, putting up killer numbers in Portland, or racking up the K's in Pawtucket. We love them, we hate to trade them, but we don't really know them, do we? Sure, we all heard about how good a prospect Hanley Ramirez was, but not many of us actually witnessed it. So when we dealt him away for Josh Beckett, we got over him relatively quickly. Again, we all heard about how Andy Marte was one of the top prospects in all of baseball, that we had to pay an All-Star caliber shortstop and $11 million to pry him away from the Braves' breeding grounds. But then we saw him escape the crush of Boston hype for the relative calm of Ohio and the Midwest. The fact of the matter is that for the average fan prospects are little more than names dropped by journalists and baseball geeks to salt discussions and articles with the legitimacy of depth of knowledge. Who are these guys? Where do they come from? I'm gonna stack up the top 10 prospects for you here, taking both my order and a significant about of info from a fantastic website, www.soxprospects.com. I'm in St. Louis right now, and one of my freakishly OCD habits is the desire to take with me on a trip only what I can fit in 1 large messenger bag, so most of my baseball reference books bit the dust in the face of necessary clothing. So I'm only packing the Hardball Times with me, but a good book to get if you're at all interested in prospects is the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, or if you're really dedicated, check out www.minorleagueball.com for good articles and the way to pick up a copy of author John Sickels' latest Baseball Prospect Book 2006. And now let's move on to the prospects:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, SP
2. Jon Lester, SP
3. Craig Hansen, RP
4. Dustin Pedroia, SS/2B
5. Manny Delcarmen, RP
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
7. David Murphy, OF
8. Brandon Moss, OF
9. Jed Lowrie, SS/2B
10. Clay Buchholz, SP

WILD CARD: Jeff Natale, 2B

Pitching and defense, pitching and defense. This is the mantra of the Red Sox FO (front office). What the Sox have been preaching for the last 3 years is finally starting to manifest itself in the farm system ratings, and we're just now beginning to reap the rewards of successful drafts and a growing development system. As the organization moves to better understand how to handle prospects so as to avoid someone like Cla Meredith coming up again and giving up a grand slam in his first appearance (Meredith has a good shot at rebounding this year, given the time off as a way to refocus), the fans are going to see a franchise that doesn't need to constantly overpay in cash or prospects for marquee players and aging superstars.

NAME/DRAFTED
1. Jonathan Papelbon: 4th Rnd 2003: Papelbon got his callup in mid to late 2005, and achieved a level of success that did not go unnoticed by both the management, the coaches, and the fans. His demeanor on the mound endeared him as a potentially dominant pitcher, though it remains to be seen whether that dominance will be asserted in the first or last inning. Says SoxProspects.com,

Good pitcher's build with a live arm and solid delivery. Fastball has been clocked up to 95 mph, typically hitting the low-90s with great command. Very good slider and changeup, as well as a slurve curveball. All can be thrown for strikes, and Papelbon has improved his consistency with these pitches. Papelbon also added a splitter to his arsenal in the spring of 2005, after some tutoring from Curt Schilling. Projects as a frontline starter.

Theo has confirmed that Paps will be working in Ft. Myers as a starter, though the success of Keith Foulke as he comes back from offseason surgeries will determine the necessity of someone with Papelbon's mentality in the closer role.

2. Jon Lester: 2nd Rnd 2002: Lester is a lefty, a talented lefty, and that is something very tough to find. For AA Portland in 2005 he went 11-6 with a 2.61 ERA and 163 Ks in 143 innings.

Very athletic lefty. 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs sit in the low 90's, top out in the mid-90s, and have good movement. Lester also utilizes an above-average change-up, an 11-to-5 curveball which sits in the low 70s, and in 2005 worked on developing a cutter. Easy delivery motion with good explosion, similar to Andy Pettitte. Power strikeout pitcher, uses his fastball and occasionally his curve as his out pitch. While Lester typically has top notch control, occasionally he will have games where his control of certain pitchers is off. Very hard worker, prepares will for each game. Has also been compared to Mark Mulder. Great pickoff move.

Yikes. Lester looks to start off in AAA Pawtucket, but could potentially crack the major league roster late in 2006, depending on how the pitching, and consequently the season, shapes up.

3. Craig Hansen: 1st Rnd 2005: Craig Hansen was a holdout, a fluke, a player that shouldn't have dropped to the Red Sox in the first round of last summer's draft. But the fact that his agent was Scott Boras took him off many teams' lists. When Theo & Co. had the chance to nab him, they did, and as a result spent all summer negotiating his contract. When he signed, though, he struck out 10 batters in 9 innings of work before being called up to the bigs for an unimpressive cup of coffee.

Hansen's fastball (the best in the system) has topped out in the high 90s, and he consistently hits the mid-90s. He also possesses an excellent high-80s slider, which also was voted best in the system by Baseball America. A fierce competitor who has an excellent closer mentality. Does not walk many batters. Named "closest to the majors" of all players in the 2005 draft.

Hansen definitely has the potential to be dominant out of the gate this year, possibly in AAA but likely to begin in AA. His arm was fatigued from the college season, and his lack of success in the bigs was probably more a result of that than anything mechanical.

4. Dustin Pedroia: 2nd Rnd 2004: As a shortstop at the University of Arizona, Pedroia proved himself a legit everyday player despite his small size (he's listed at 5'8"). He moved to second base to accomodate Hanley Ramirez in the minors, but with Ramirez's departure could potentially move back to SS as the franchise's top prospect at that position. Built on the model of David Eckstein, Pedroia is one of my personal favorites. He was rated Defensive Player of the Year in the Eastern League, and plays the game with the kind of hustle needed to succeed, impress, and endear. The fact that he's got great hand-eye coordination doesn't hurt either, as he likely would've cracked the big club in 2005 if not for a wrist injury suffered in Pawtucket.

Small infielder had a tremendous career at Arizona State. Average power for a middle infielder, with good bat speed and excellent plate discipline. Loves the game and has fantastic instincts. Plays top-notch defense up the middle, named the 2003 National Defensive Player of the Year. Very scrappy; a great teammate. Moved to second base prior to the start of the 2005 season; Boston hasn't ruled out moving Pedroia back to shortstop.

Although the Sox signed Alex Gonzalez to a 1 year deal, that deal contains a buyout option should they decide not to bring him with them out of camp. This option says to me that there is the strong possibility we could see Pedroia at SS sometime in 2006, possible around the All-Star Break, with Alex Cora keeping his seat warm until it's time. Let's all hope.

5. Manny Delcarmen: 2nd Rnd 2000: Ever dream about what it would be like to be grow up a Sox fan in the shadow of Fenway Park, be drafed by the Sox, and be good enough to be considered one of their top prospects and crack the big club? Well, Manny Delcarmen is living that dream. This West Roxbury, MA native is everybody's hometown hero, bringing the gas after undergoing Tommy John surfery in 2003. In his cup of coffee he punched out 10 batters in a mere 9 IP, and throughout the entirety of the summer posted very good numbers in both double and triple A.

Boston native always dreamed of playing for the Sox. His career was on the fast track with a mid 90s fastball, and an outstanding curveball - until he injured himself in May 2003. Delcarmen had Tommy John surgery in May 2003, but returned to the mound a year later in May 2004. Post-surgery, Delcarmen's fastball may have actually gained velocity, as he has topped out in the high 90s. Delcarmen has average control, with decent changeup and a very good curve which he uses as his out pitch. Delcarmen's father played in the Phillies Organization.

Delcarmen spent a decent amount of time with Boston last year, but I think is a candidate to come out of Pawtucket later in the season. Should somebody like Rudy Seanez or Julian Tavarez suck it up, we could see him Opening Day. It's' fun to watch someone who knows what it's all about. Good thing we didn't ship him to Cleveland...

*NOTE: This is where my prospect knowledge starts to get pretty shallow, so from here on out I'll just toss out the SoxProspects report and maybe a comment or two.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury: 1st Rnd 2005: Ellsbury posted an .850 OPS in 139 games at A Lowell last summer, and half of that number was his OBP (.418). Though he's not going to cannon blasts at the flagpole in center field, Ellsbury is gifted defensively with speed and decent hands.

Ellsbury was on of the best players in the NCAA in 2005. He is very fast, plays excellent defense, and has shown a great ability to get on base. Decent gap power for a centerfielder who projects as a lead-off hitter. Has often been compared to Johnny Damon. Also said to be a team leader.

Ellsbury will likely not see action in the bigs until 2008.

7. David Murphy: 1st Rnd 2003: Though drafted earlier, Murphy seems to be in a similar vein with Ellsbury.

Murphy is a tall, athletic lefty with a sweet swing. Pulls a lot of pitches, and displays excellent patience at the plate. Loves the game, and displays excellent leadership skills. Needs to work on adding more power. Accurate arm with decent range. Average speed. Injury-plagued 2004 season showed mediocre stats.

8. Brandon Moss: 8th Rnd 2002:

Athletic outfielder with a good arm. Excellent approach at the plate - good swing with a raw power. Moss is a competitor. He didn't show much at the plate in his first two professional seasons, but put in a good amount of work in the off-season prior to 2004, producing an outstanding 2004 season in all respects.

9. Jed Lowrie: 1st Rnd 2005: This guy definitely looks like he could be a character on "Hey, Arnold!" on Nickolodeon, but apparently he can play baseball. Weird.

Excellent fielder with a strong arm and above average range. Above average speed on the basepaths with great power for a middle infielder. Hits equally from both sides of the plate. Smart and athletic.

10. Clay Buchholz: 1st Rnd 2005: Just about my brother's age...

Buchholz has a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, curveball, and a circle change. Also played outfield at Angelina College after transferring from McNeese State.

Last but not least, let's take a look at our Wild Card:

BA's #32 in the Boston organization:

Jeff Natale: 32nd Rnd 2005: Why am I putting Natale here, you ask? Well first of all, he was rated as one of the biggest surprises in 2005 by Baseball America, who noted that he has uncanny hand-eye coordination. He ripped Lowell and Greenville to shreds, and looks to continue. It also doesn't hurt that I went to college with him and was acquaintances with him. And when I say acquaintance, read that as I had lunch with him a few times and I think played him once or twice in beer pong. Saw him last week at a lecture/discussion with Buster Olney the day before he shipped out to Ft. Myers. Nice guy.

Hard worker who dominated competition in the NESCAC. Shows a great hitting eye and good speed. Team captain in college.

Hope you've enjoyed this romp through the minors. Again, SoxProspects.com, MinorLeagueBaseball.com and Baseball America are all great places to scope out the latest prospect news and insight.