Natale Gets His Due

Official "Friend of the Hot Corner" Jeff Natale, an uber-late round pick by the Sox in the 2005 draft, is finally getting his due. After being picked as my wild card prospect back in February, Natale got some love today from The Hardball Times in an article by Chris Constancio.

Here's the link to his stats:

JEFF NATALE

And here's what Constancio had to say:

Natale was the 978th player taken in the 2005 draft, is much smaller than the average ballplayer, and he played college ball at a relatively unknown school in Connecticut. He's under the radar for obvious reasons, but his production is impressive. He rarely strikes out, gets on base at an outsanding rate, and has shown unexpected power:

YEAR LVL AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2006 A 119 .345 .481 .563 6 14 27 14

Natale is already 23 years old, so most prospect analysts are quick to dismiss his numbers until he faces more age-appropriate competition. Natale is in the South Atlantic League so that he can work on his defense with Greenville manager Luis Alicea, but he should get a chance to show what he can do in Wilmington or Portland later this year.

I also don't think his performance in the South Atlantic League should be completely dismissed. I searched my database for 22- or 23-year-old middle infielders with comparable contact rates, walk rates, and isolated power (SLG-BA) against class-A pitchers. Here are the five most similar players:

Year Player K% BB% ISOP
2005-06 Jeff Natale 8.2% 14.9% .218
2005 Kevin Melillo 11.7% 15.5% .171
2004 Ian Kinsler 14.1% 9.8% .290
1998 David Eckstein 8.6% 14.7% .098
2002 Scott Hairston 15.8% 12.4% .231
2000 Nate Espy 18.7% 18.0% .219

In general, the comparison players seem relevant to Jeff Natale. Many of these players seem destined for productive major league careers even though they were not blessed with outstanding "tools." David Eckstein and Ian Kinsler in particular stand out as guys who were dismissed as undersized overachievers early in their careers. I suspect Natale will join those two players in the big leagues two or three years from now. And here's a fun fact: if Natale can earn a starting job in the big leagues, he could challenge a Craig Biggio record some day. Natale has been hit by a pitch 18 times through 80 games with Greenville.

Here's hoping Natale turns the necessary heads in Greenville and gets the call-up, so that maybe everybody here at THC can get a chance to see him without driving to South Carolina.