Beckett Loses, Curveball Disappears
Josh Beckett took the loss last night, 3-0, against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in his first purely AL start in some time. All of Tampa's scoring was done on solo home runs, two from Ty Wigginton and one from Russel Branyan. Those three homers put Beckett in a very dubious position of honor: for having given up the most home runs in the major leagues. The problem with the results from last night's game is that Beckett really pitched fairly well. He threw 97 pitches over 7 innings, with 7 hits, 3 runs, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts. The fact that he was able to go 7 without even reaching 100 pitches and that all of his dongs were solo shots is an indication that he did a fairly good job of keeping the Rays off the basepaths. Unfortunately, he missed with a few fastballs over the plate and paid the price.
That seems to be the story with our big offseason pickup this year: "He pitched pretty well, just missed with a few fastballs." Beckett has great velocity on his fastball, and when coupled with his intensity on the mound he's able to ratchet even that up a few notches to get the outs he needs. Unfortunately, the AL is a hitter's league, meaning that in order for a pitcher to have success he needs to do more than simply blow it by guys; he has to outfox them. While the fastball appears to be Beckett's bread and butter, he does have a fantastic power curveball which, when mixed in off the fastball, generates either swings and misses or buckling knees. His success during interleague demonstrated his ability to mix in that curveball throughout the entire game, not simply when he got into jams.
If you look below, notice how much more Beckett uses the fastball than he does his other pitches. Special thanks to Euclis20 on Sons of Sam Horn and his ESPN subscription, which allowed him to dig up these interesting numbers. They extend back through 5000 pitches, placing us all the way back through the middle of 2004.
Throughout all of those numbers the fastball is dominant, but if you look at the OBA (Opponents' Batting Average) against the fastball, it's still only .266. With roughly a year and a half of National League play included in those stats, we can deduce that Beckett's fastball in the NL allowed him to maintain a very high level of success. It's a fastball league, and when you can dial it up, a pitcher of his caliber is going to get the whiffs. However, when you move into the American League a pitcher needs to be smarter in how he goes about his starts. Throwing 94 mph for 100 pitches is a great way to make sure you pitch 6 innings, and an even better way to give up a lot of home runs. With an OBA of .127 against the curveball, it's a wonder he doesn't throw it more often. Even his changeup has a stellar OBA, .209.
In watching his starts, it seems that the lack of curveballs comes from a strange confidence issue. He's going to need to throw that breaking and off-speed stuff for strikes deep in the count if he wants to go anywhere near what he used to do in the NL.
That seems to be the story with our big offseason pickup this year: "He pitched pretty well, just missed with a few fastballs." Beckett has great velocity on his fastball, and when coupled with his intensity on the mound he's able to ratchet even that up a few notches to get the outs he needs. Unfortunately, the AL is a hitter's league, meaning that in order for a pitcher to have success he needs to do more than simply blow it by guys; he has to outfox them. While the fastball appears to be Beckett's bread and butter, he does have a fantastic power curveball which, when mixed in off the fastball, generates either swings and misses or buckling knees. His success during interleague demonstrated his ability to mix in that curveball throughout the entire game, not simply when he got into jams.
If you look below, notice how much more Beckett uses the fastball than he does his other pitches. Special thanks to Euclis20 on Sons of Sam Horn and his ESPN subscription, which allowed him to dig up these interesting numbers. They extend back through 5000 pitches, placing us all the way back through the middle of 2004.
Total:Euclis also posted one more less-than-encouraging number: Hitters that swing at the Beckett's first pitch post a line of 341/.362/.659 and 4 home runs. Apparently, when Beckett said the scouting report on him was to "Swing early," he wasn't kidding.
Fastball: 71%
Curveball: 16%
Changeup: 12%
First pitch:
Fastball: 82%
Curveball: 11%
Changeup: 7%
Ahead in the count:
Fastball: 59%
Curveball: 26%
Changeup: 14%
Behind in the count:
Fastball: 78%
Curveball: 6%
Changeup: 15%
vs. RHB:
Fastball: 71%
Curveball: 20%
Changeup: 8%
vs. LHB:
Fastball: 71%
Curveball: 12%
Changeup: 16%
OBA:
Fastball: .266
Curveball: .127
Changeup: .209
Throughout all of those numbers the fastball is dominant, but if you look at the OBA (Opponents' Batting Average) against the fastball, it's still only .266. With roughly a year and a half of National League play included in those stats, we can deduce that Beckett's fastball in the NL allowed him to maintain a very high level of success. It's a fastball league, and when you can dial it up, a pitcher of his caliber is going to get the whiffs. However, when you move into the American League a pitcher needs to be smarter in how he goes about his starts. Throwing 94 mph for 100 pitches is a great way to make sure you pitch 6 innings, and an even better way to give up a lot of home runs. With an OBA of .127 against the curveball, it's a wonder he doesn't throw it more often. Even his changeup has a stellar OBA, .209.
In watching his starts, it seems that the lack of curveballs comes from a strange confidence issue. He's going to need to throw that breaking and off-speed stuff for strikes deep in the count if he wants to go anywhere near what he used to do in the NL.
Labels: 2006 Season
Ryan Brodeur at 11:55 AM
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