Nixon Not Offered Arbitration

Midnight of last night was the deadline for major league teams to offer arbitration to all eligible free agents. For those who are unclear, if a team offers a player arbitration and that player then decides to sign with a different team as a free agent, the original arb-offering team is given compensatory draft picks based on the player's rating from the Elias Sport Bureau. The Red Sox only offered arbitration to one player this year: reliever and one-time closer Keith Foulke. It is believed that Foulke is nearing a contract with the Cleveland Indians, nearer, say than any of the players who failed to receive arbitration offers: Mark Loretta, Doug Mirabelli, and Trot Nixon.

The big scandal here is the fact that Nixon, a first-round draft pick by Lou Gorman's 1993 front office, was not given the option of arbitration. Consensus around the the educated halls of the Hub has it that Trot will not and should not be back in right field. At least, not as a starter.

G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+-
  2    4    2    2   1  0   0    0  0   1  .500  .500  .750
 13   27    3    7   1  0   0    0  1   3  .259  .286  .296
124  381   67  103  22  5  15   52 53  75  .270  .357  .472
123  427   66  118  27  8  12   60 63  85  .276  .368  .461
148  535  100  150  31  4  27   88 79 113  .280  .376  .505
152  532   81  136  36  3  24   94 65 109  .256  .338  .470
134  441   81  135  24  6  28   87 65  96  .306  .396  .578
 48  149   24   47   9  1   6   23 15  24  .315  .377  .510
124  408   64  112  29  1  13   67 53  59  .275  .357  .446
114  381   59  102  24  0   8   52 60  56  .268  .373  .394
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+-
982 3285  547  912 204 28 133  523 454 621 .278  .366  .478

Nixon is not exactly a knock-the-cover-off-the-ball corner outfielder, but he's no slouch, either. We're all familiar with his season in 2003, where he hit .306/.396/.598, crushing 28 HR and knocked in 87 RBI. The 2003 season also wrapped up a three-year stretch where Nixon clubbed a total of 79 HR, his only serious power surge. He has been incredibly fragile, playing 130 games in only 3 seasons, his "home run years," and it's this fragility that has come to characterize everybody's favorite Dirt Dog.

Nixon's attitude on the field, deference in front of the cameras and fans, and his efforts in the non-profit community have had a profound impact on everybody who follows the Sox. The outrage that has bubbled to the surface in the last few days (and it's been muted, to be sure) swirls not so much around the on-field performance (which has been commendable), but around his personality. Add to this mix the seemingly inevitable signing of J.D. Drew, an equally fragile outfielder, wearing number 7, who has managed to flash better power numbers, at an outlandish 4 years, $56 million dollars (or somewhere near there), and you have a controversy.

The fact of the matter is that Nixon has been unreliable in right field. I love him as much as anybody, and the thought of him in another uniform is hard to stomach. I have also, however, come to be just as comfortable with Gabe Kapler or Wily Mo Peña in right field as I have Nixon. Offering arbitration to a player that fragile would be akin to paying $7 million for 3 months of average offensive performance (and zero production against lefties). Whatever I or the pundits may say about Drew's clubhouse presence, it is nothing but spectulation, and his performance at the plate and in the field can't really be discredited. It's a shame that Trot may be gone, but it looks as if we'll have an exceptional player in right field in his stead (provided he stays healthy.)