Papelbon in the 9th

As you've no doubt heard by this point, Jonathan Papelbon will be reprising his breakout 2006 role as Red Sox closer in 2007. Despite all of the public statements by both the pitcher and the club that number 58 was bound for the starting rotation because of health reasons, it appears that health is no longer enough of a concern to keep Paps out of the closer spot.

I'm very lukewarm about this move, to tell the truth. With Papelbon moving to the bullpen, Julian "Grooveball" Tavarez is going to be shifting over to the fifth spot in the rotation until Jon Lester or a pitcher of similar comportment establishes himself and takes over. A rotation that appeared to be one of the best going into the 2007 campaign now looks significantly weaker. Of course, I'm pretty sure there are a number of complicated charts and formulas Baseball Prospectus has put together recently that explains exactly just how a fifth starter looks when compared to a dominant closer, and I'm also pretty sure that a closer holds more value, regardless of innings pitched.

The biggest reason for my trepidation is the one we're all talking about: Papelbon's long-term health and career. Nobody wants to see the Red Sox sacrifice a potentially very good starting pitcher over 10 years for a short-sighted fix to the closer situation. Everybody and their mom has been saying that Pap's shoulder will be best served by regular, rhythmic usage and preparation, something the rotation can provide and the bullpen does it's best to avoid.

Still, if Papelbon is destined to be as lights-out in the first 21 outs as he is in the last 3, wouldn't it be better to hedge all bets and pursue the best option for the hurler's arm? In today's blog Peter Gammons addresses this with the kind of proof one only gets with the press pass:

"There is no legitimate bullpen help to be acquired right now," said another AL GM. "And what we saw in Papelbon this spring is that he'd start out at 92-94 mph and gradually fall down to 88. Our people feel that he may throw so many pitches as a starter he's a five-inning guy. And the Red Sox cannot afford to blow five leads in April with Papelbon sitting out there."

If that's the case, then the bullpen is the place to be. As long as the front office can have restrictions in place for Papelbon's usage (no eight-inning, non-playoff saves, par exemple) and can enforce them, then maybe he'll be able to keep his health and help the team.

Before I close this, the first substantial post in some time, let me offer one crazy, unfounded notion to the mix. If Papelbon is the closer, that potentially opens up a rotation spot for Roger Clemens, should he decide to come back, placing him in a powerful rotation, potent offense, and in front of a lights-out closer to boot. Hey, it could happen.