2007 World Series Preview

The Red Sox will be playing in the World Series tomorrow night at Fenway Park, their second in four years. Though it may seem like a "pinch me" scenario, it is most certainly true, and it comes as just another affirmation of how could this team really is. We watched them all season, through the ups and the precarious downs of the final month, and somehow we managed to convince ourselves that maybe they weren't that good.

Well, they are, and when Josh Beckett toes the rubber tomorrow evening in his second Fall Classic appearance, he'll be facing a Colorado Rockies lineup that is nothing like the laughers of several years ago. Todd Helton, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe comprise the backbone of a lineup that posted a line of .280/.354/.437 only after the pitchers' ABs were included. Nothing to shake a stick at, but then again, you've all been listening to the radio the last few days, so you all know that already.

Here's where I think the money is going to be made: starting pitching. I know, it's groundbreaking, isn't it? The series is going to come down to whoever pitches best, nothing new under the sun, but lets see just exactly this one shakes down.

We all know the Sox

ERA W L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+
Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.40 15 12 204.7 191 100 100 25 80 201 108
Josh Beckett 3.27 20 7 200.7 189 76 73 17 40 194 145
Curt Schilling 3.87 9 8 151.0 165 68 65 21 23 101 122

All three, despite any inconsistencies throughout the year, are known commodities. Beckett needs to be Beckett, work his curveball and changeup effectively and keep the Mile High Mashers off balance.

The Rockies' playoff rotation, unlike the Sox, is not at as well known.

Jeff Francis 4.22 17 9 215.3 234 103 101 25 63 165 114
Ubaldo Jimenez 4.28 4 4 82.0 70 46 39 10 37 68 112
Franklin Morales 3.43 3 2 39.3 34 15 15 2 14 26 140


Jeff Francis is the only one we've seen before, earning himself a great season of 17 wins over 215 IP. The problem for Colorado is the number of hits he allowed, 234. That's 43 more than any of the Sox pitchers, meaning that Francis' success is due largely to the best defense in MLB history playing behind him. In a place like Fenway, where the outfield corners are more than a bit quirky and the field certainly can enter in as an unknown, a small but exploitable advantage for the Olde Towne Team.

The other two starters, Jimenez and Morales, were call ups who managed to pitch their tails off and help the Rockies into the Series despite an offense that batted an anemic .222 in the ALCS. They certainly don't have the experience, but both allowed a lot of hits and didn't pick up many K's. If the Sox can hold their own in the box and not get sucked into swinging at bad pitches (and, say, hitting into a record-setting number of double plays), they have a good chance at waiting out the starters and getting into the meat of the 'pen.

Unlike 2004, when the Sox were on the roll to end all rolls (like the Rockies today), the Cardinals didn't have the depth they needed to combat the overpowering pitching of Schilling and Pedro. They were also without their ace, Chris Carpenter. The 2007 Rockies are hampered by neither.

Expect this to be an exciting Series, and hold on to your hats. It could get stressful.