C.C. Loves Prospect Cookies!
We're just a few days away from July 1 and the countdown to the most overhyped moment in baseball: the trading deadline, and Cleveland is already abuzz with swirling rumors that C.C. Sabathia, their beloved lefty starter, is on his way out the door. Although Sabathia signed a two year extension in 2006 worth $17.75 million, the team's recent inability to get anything done right has GM Mark Shapiro looking for ways to restock his farm system instead of jumping into a nasty free agent bidding war for the ace's services this offseason. The Red Sox are reportedly holding one of the most coveted farm systems in the Tribe's front office, and with good reason. The system is stacked with prospects like Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson that are bubbling to the top levels, and don't forget that this is all due to the knockout blow the Sox delivered to Eric Wedge & Co. last October. It's an ALCS hangover, like whoa. We saw it in Detroit after they were annihilated in the 2006 World Series. Once down, they just can't get up.
But enough of that, the real question is whether or not the Sox should reciprocate the interest. Quick answer, yes, mulled over answer, maybe. Look, it's hard to argue with Sabathia's dominance.
Year Ag W L G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2001 20 17 5 33 33 180.3 149 93 88 19 95 171 4.39 4.48 102 1.353
2002 21 13 11 33 33 210.0 198 109 102 17 88 149 4.37 4.38 100 1.362
2003 22 13 9 30 30 197.7 190 85 79 19 66 141 3.60 4.39 122 1.295
2004 23 11 10 30 30 188.0 176 90 86 20 72 139 4.12 4.36 106 1.319
2005 24 15 10 31 31 196.7 185 92 88 19 62 161 4.03 4.19 104 1.256
2006 25 12 11 28 28 192.7 182 83 69 17 44 172 3.22 4.52 140 1.173
2007 26 19 7 34 34 241.0 238 94 86 20 37 209 3.21 4.61 143 1.141
2008 27 6 8 17 17 114.3 110 49 48 11 32 118 3.78 4.16 110 1.24
Even a quick peek at those numbers will you that, especially lately, Sabathia has been dominant. An ERA+ of 140 and higher in '06 and '07 (plus a Cy Young Award) are nothing to laugh at, and even though he's sub-.500 this season, he's still pitching mostly like he has in the last two. So specifically, why should the Sox pursue him?
First, he's an all-around ace. He's got a dominant sinker to compliment his fastball, slider, and change-up, and he's a workhorse to boot. His lowest IP for a season was the 180.3 in his rookie year. Last year's Cy Young accolade was more a tip of the cap to his ability to save the Indian buillpen from overuse more than anything else, as he topped out at a whopping 240 IP. While his strikeouts aren't spectacular, they're great when held next to a WHIP that's dropped like a stone every year but 2004. He's built like an ox with the strength to match it and, oh yea, and he's all this and more at the ripe young age of 27.
So, then, if he's this good, why any hesitation at all? If he's bigger and stronger than Johan Santana and having a downish year, why not capitalize on Shapiro's interest and trade-and-sign him? Well, while one of his strengths is his durability, it also means he's put 1520.7 innings on that left arm of his before the age of 28, a feat that leaves him in such loveable company as Dan Petry, Tony Cloninger and Dave McNally (I skipped Greg Maddux because nobody's really like Maddux). He could have a lot left in the tank or he could not, but with that large of a load (pun possibly intended) this young, it's a big risk. Also, while Sabathia has shown regular season dominance, we all saw just how ineffective he was in the postseason against the Sox. Giving up 17 ER, 27 H and 18 BB in 21 total postseason innings isn't impressive. Although it's very Yankee-esque of me to say it, you're worth nothing until you've done it in October. Just ask Josh Beckett, who's been everything since doing it twice in the Classic.
His services aren't going to come cheap either way you cut it, but he might be worth pursuing given Schillings surgery and Daisuke's spottiness. The it'll really come down to just what the Indians are going to want, exactly. A top prospect and maybe 2 second tier would be ok, but when you toss in the huge paycheck his agent is going to demand, C.C. might just find himself stuck in Cleveland until December. We've seen just how rewarding it is to wait on the products of the farm system. It's very easy to go to one extreme or the other with these prospects, either spending them too quickly or hoarding them too greedily.
In the end, if you ask me, Sabathia is good enough to pursue right now at the midpoint. This Sox team is standing in first place without one of their best pitchers and without their All-Star DH. They should be percentage points behind the Rays this morning, but are in fact in the exact opposite place thanks to a late showing by the Pirates. You can't hope to get into, much less move through the postseason like that. Sabathia would put the Sox over the top a time when they need it most, and with Beckett clearly the ace on this staff, C.C. would set himself up to be the best number 2 starter in the league.
This isn't Santana and this isn't offseason speculation. We know what we have and we know where we need to be. I think a deal would get us there.
But enough of that, the real question is whether or not the Sox should reciprocate the interest. Quick answer, yes, mulled over answer, maybe. Look, it's hard to argue with Sabathia's dominance.
Year Ag W L G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2001 20 17 5 33 33 180.3 149 93 88 19 95 171 4.39 4.48 102 1.353
2002 21 13 11 33 33 210.0 198 109 102 17 88 149 4.37 4.38 100 1.362
2003 22 13 9 30 30 197.7 190 85 79 19 66 141 3.60 4.39 122 1.295
2004 23 11 10 30 30 188.0 176 90 86 20 72 139 4.12 4.36 106 1.319
2005 24 15 10 31 31 196.7 185 92 88 19 62 161 4.03 4.19 104 1.256
2006 25 12 11 28 28 192.7 182 83 69 17 44 172 3.22 4.52 140 1.173
2007 26 19 7 34 34 241.0 238 94 86 20 37 209 3.21 4.61 143 1.141
2008 27 6 8 17 17 114.3 110 49 48 11 32 118 3.78 4.16 110 1.24
Even a quick peek at those numbers will you that, especially lately, Sabathia has been dominant. An ERA+ of 140 and higher in '06 and '07 (plus a Cy Young Award) are nothing to laugh at, and even though he's sub-.500 this season, he's still pitching mostly like he has in the last two. So specifically, why should the Sox pursue him?
First, he's an all-around ace. He's got a dominant sinker to compliment his fastball, slider, and change-up, and he's a workhorse to boot. His lowest IP for a season was the 180.3 in his rookie year. Last year's Cy Young accolade was more a tip of the cap to his ability to save the Indian buillpen from overuse more than anything else, as he topped out at a whopping 240 IP. While his strikeouts aren't spectacular, they're great when held next to a WHIP that's dropped like a stone every year but 2004. He's built like an ox with the strength to match it and, oh yea, and he's all this and more at the ripe young age of 27.
So, then, if he's this good, why any hesitation at all? If he's bigger and stronger than Johan Santana and having a downish year, why not capitalize on Shapiro's interest and trade-and-sign him? Well, while one of his strengths is his durability, it also means he's put 1520.7 innings on that left arm of his before the age of 28, a feat that leaves him in such loveable company as Dan Petry, Tony Cloninger and Dave McNally (I skipped Greg Maddux because nobody's really like Maddux). He could have a lot left in the tank or he could not, but with that large of a load (pun possibly intended) this young, it's a big risk. Also, while Sabathia has shown regular season dominance, we all saw just how ineffective he was in the postseason against the Sox. Giving up 17 ER, 27 H and 18 BB in 21 total postseason innings isn't impressive. Although it's very Yankee-esque of me to say it, you're worth nothing until you've done it in October. Just ask Josh Beckett, who's been everything since doing it twice in the Classic.
His services aren't going to come cheap either way you cut it, but he might be worth pursuing given Schillings surgery and Daisuke's spottiness. The it'll really come down to just what the Indians are going to want, exactly. A top prospect and maybe 2 second tier would be ok, but when you toss in the huge paycheck his agent is going to demand, C.C. might just find himself stuck in Cleveland until December. We've seen just how rewarding it is to wait on the products of the farm system. It's very easy to go to one extreme or the other with these prospects, either spending them too quickly or hoarding them too greedily.
In the end, if you ask me, Sabathia is good enough to pursue right now at the midpoint. This Sox team is standing in first place without one of their best pitchers and without their All-Star DH. They should be percentage points behind the Rays this morning, but are in fact in the exact opposite place thanks to a late showing by the Pirates. You can't hope to get into, much less move through the postseason like that. Sabathia would put the Sox over the top a time when they need it most, and with Beckett clearly the ace on this staff, C.C. would set himself up to be the best number 2 starter in the league.
This isn't Santana and this isn't offseason speculation. We know what we have and we know where we need to be. I think a deal would get us there.
Labels: 2008 Season
Ryan Brodeur at 11:57 AM
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