Digg! Thursday, July 31, 2008

Manny-Go-Round

It happened: Manny Ramírez is on his way to the Los Angeles Dodgers and outfielder Jason Bay is en route from Pittsburgh to take #24's place in front of the Green Monster. Here are the specifics (player origins in parentheses):

Red Sox: 
Jason Bay (PIT): .282/.375/.519, 22 HR 0.69 BB/K

Dodgers: 
Manny Ramirez (BOS) .299/.398/.529, 20 HR 0.60 BB/K
est. $7 million (Manny's remaining salary)

Pirates:
Brandon Moss (BOS) .295/.337/.462, 2 HR
Craig Hansen (BOS) 5.58 ERA/29 H/23 BB/25 K, 30.2 IP
Andy LaRoche (LAD/AAA Las Vegas) .293/.452/.439, 5 HR
Bryan Morris (LAD/A Great Lake) 3.20 ERA/74 H/31 BB/72 K, 81.2 IP

Immediate observation produces skepticism from those of us in New England, simply because there is zero way to replace the all-around presence of Manny Ramirez in a lineup. No matter what Jason Bay does, he won't be able to generate the aura of intimidation that Manny has built up over the span of his entire career. That being said, I think this is a great deal. Let's see why.

First of all, the FO got an impressive return on a publicly disgruntled, overpaid, aging, declining superstar. Manny, while one of the best righthanded hitters to ever play the game, isn't the same hitter he was 4 years ago. He can't catch up to the best fastballs in the league, and it's doubtful he'll be able to jack 40+ homers again (unless of course he sees more mediocre cheese in the National League). His defense outside of Fenway made him a liability, and his persona made him a pain in the ass for everybody. So going into today's deadline looked like we could expect an aging 4th outfielder and a bag of old BP balls. Instead, we got Bay.

Bay is the anti-Manny at this point. He's 29, has been in the league for three full years (last year was cut short by injury), hits for average and decent power, and is at least average on defense. Oh yea, and he's a lot cheaper than Manny. Interestingly, his offensive numbers are the result of a lineup with zero protection. He's been the one superstar in the Pittsburgh offense, and now he's just one of the guys. When you factor in his defense, the Jason Bay of today is more valuable than Manny.

The Dodgers here get a totally free upgrade of their offense for the next two months because the Sox are picking up the bill for the remainder of the season. Their defense in expansive Dodger Stadium will suffer pretty severely, in my opinion, but I think they're willing to trade that for somebody (other than James Loney) who can swing a bat. The funniest part of this for the Dodgers is that new manager (and all around nice guy) Joe Torre has to handle a 2004 reunion of Derek Lowe, Nomar Garciaparra, and Manny Ramirez. I feel bad for that guy.

The Pirates got the most questionable end of this deal. The prospects are interesting enough, I guess. Andy LaRoche has been slighted by the genius leadership of a Ned Colletti front office, and he had too few AB with LA to mention. At AAA he's hitting for a high average and getting on-base constantly. Playing in Pittsburgh with his brother with no serious threat to cut his playing time might be good for him. The other minor leaguer, Bryan Morris, is still a pup in Class A ball, but he's been impressive thus far. He causes a few whiffs, as you can well see, but it's still far too early to pass judgement on anything.

Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen, the other two headed to the Bucs? If you've been watching at all this season, you don't need much explanation. Moss is a 5th outfielder who plays average defense and is nothing special at the plate. Hansen's another matter. This kid has potential, but he hasn't shown much of it here. His fastball is total gas, and his slider can be absolutely filthy... when it's working. Otherwise he's a liability. His first pitch strike percentage is the worst on the staff, and he's king of allowing inherited runners cross the plate. He definitely has an upside, and it's possible that he'll flourish in the dead zone of Pittsburgh, but it was clear he ran out of slack on his rope in Boston. Together with the prospects from the Dodgers they helped clear some salary for the Bucs...oh yea, and they're not named Buchholz, Masterson, Anderson, Lowrie, or Ellsbury. Theo pulled the trigger on a great trade but saved the core of the farm system.

In short, this is a good trade for the Sox. They clear the air in the dugout, eliminate an enormous distraction, improve their defense, get a look at a potential free agent before he hits the market in the offseason, and they didn't have to give up any of their top prospects. In a sense I'm sad that the Manny era is over, but mostly I'm glad that we've cleared what appears to be the last bitchy superstar for the next little while... I hope.

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