Digg! Tuesday, February 28, 2006

On The Bookshelves

The 2006 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia was released today. As always, it's edited by Gary Gilette and Pete Palmer, with an introduction by Peter Gammons. I don't really know why ESPN has it's name tagged to it, though maybe it has something to do with funding or something. You'd think Major League Baseball would want to publish an official book of statistics. Then again, the Keeping Of The Official Statistics has always been an interesting and contradictory thing. If you're interested, I'd recommend a stellar book called The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination With Statistics, by Alan Schwarz and forward by, you guessed it, Peter Gammons. It should really be required reading for anyone with an interest in baseball history, as it demonstrates how complicated the history of our great game really is.

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Digg! Monday, February 27, 2006

Sox Wallpapers

Nothing too important, just wanted to let anyone who didn't already know that they can find pretty nice Red Sox wallpapers taken by Globe photographers here. They're updated with some regularity.

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Specialty: Sox Slayer


How many of you guys remember all those series we had against the Toronto Blue Jays last year? Now, quick! Name the one player who single-handedly ruined the Sox on multiple occasions! If you guessed Greg Zaun, you'd be wrong, though he did have a knack for hitting most of his home runs against Boston. No, the player I'm referring to is Frank Catalanotto. Catalanotto was particulary effective in the final Sox/Jays series September 27-29 at Fenway, when we were dogfighting the Yankees for the AL East. Have a look:

AB H 1B 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO R RBI SB CS FB GB LD
9/27 8 4 3 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 4 1
9/28 5 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 2 0
9/29 5 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 2 2 0

So maybe he's not the greatest player in the world. After all, he's somewhat of a journeyman, and at 32, he's not likely to get better. Still, I once made the mistake of underestimating his numbers. Won't do that again.



Is Frankie an All-Star? No. But is he a total scrub? Well, it's tought to call anybod\y who posts .301/.367/.451 a scrub. Still, he's not all that exceptional. What's his secret? If you take a look at Catalanotto's BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play), he only occasionally dips below the.300 mark. With the exception of a few dramatic spikes, his BABIP remains at or above average. This could be attributed to a couple of things, not the least of which is the generally atrocious defense in the AL East.

He also struck out just barely over 10% of the time. However, he walked less than 10% of the time as well. What does that tell us? Right, that he puts the bat on the ball, which would explain the high BABIP and support the argument that he was helped by two things: 1. hitting them where they weren't, and 2. poor defense. (SIDENOTE: Very good article today at The Hardball Times by David Appelman called "Dissecting Plate Discipline". Check it out.)

In the case of the Red Sox, we can probably chalk up his insanely clutch success (the numbers don't really do him justice as a Sox killer, save that last Fenway series) to poor pitching and poor defense. No two ways about it.

He's not a superstar, but he's not a slouch. He'll put the bat on the ball and make you work for the out, something the Red Sox have not been so good at as of late.

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Digg! Sunday, February 26, 2006

Sox Strike A Pose

This is just too good to pass up. Every wonder what your favorite ballplayers would look like in model-esque photo shoots? Me either. Still, these images from Red Sox Photo Day are, um, interesting to say the least. This picture of Tito is just a taste of what's in store.

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This One's No Idiot

In today's Boston Globe you'll find a very interesting article on Craig Breslow, just one of the many pitchers in camp with minor league deals and longshot hopes of cracking the big league roster. What makes Breslow different is his Yale education and his background in RNA research. An interesting read. I recommend it if you're tired of reading about how David Wells doesn't want to talk to the media and Curt Schilling is teaching the young ones to stay away from Dan Shaughnessy.

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NESN Spring Schedule

As we move forward into the month of March, the fans across New England will finally be able to watch their beloved Sox on their television screens with NESN's coverage of select Spring Training games. Here's the schedule this far:

Saturday March 4 Pittsburgh at Ft. Myers 1:00 PM
Saturday March 11 Pittsburgh at Bradenton 1:00 PM
Sunday March 12 Minnesota at Ft. Myers 1:00 PM
Sunday March 19 Baltimore at Ft. Myers 1:00 PM
Wednesday March 22 New York (A) at Tampa 7:00 PM
Saturday March 25 Toronto at Ft. Myers 1:00 PM
Sunday March 26 Philadelphia at Clearwater 1:00 PM
Saturday April 1 Philadelphia at Philadelphia 1:00 PM
Sunday April 2 Philadelphia at Philadelphia 1:00 PM

Make sure to mark your calendars and get your viewing gear ready!

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Digg! Saturday, February 25, 2006

Concern over new pitchers

With the surgery and subsequent hospitalization of Dave Wallace for what looks like a good chunk of the 2006 season, and Jason Varitek leaving for the World Baseball Classic this week, numerous individuals have expressed some concern over the effectiveness of the Sox' staff coming out of the April gates. In all honesty, I think they really have no need to worry. Al Nipper, who pitched for the Sox for several years, has been named interim pitching coach after having spent a little bit of time around the staff in '05 and serving as bullpen coach. Though he doesn't have the same comfort level around Terry Francona, and the younger pitchers lose some of the cushion provided by Wallace's 2.5 years of continuity, Nipper has been lauded as being intelligent and confident as a coach in his own right. And as far as Varitek, we all know how hard he works. He's been doing his part to catch the guys he needs to catch before his departure with Team USA, and if anything his absence is going to allow his backup (whomever that may be) to jell with the new staff. The pitchers will be fine. What we should all be concerned about is Wallace's health. Get well soon, Dave.

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Digg! Wednesday, February 22, 2006

De Dos Dominicanos...


Making their home inside the three and four spots of the Red Sox batting order one finds two of the most feared hitters in all of baseball: Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Both are legends in New England, both have inspired legions of fans, both can intimidate even the most talented pitchers, and both can change the momentum of a ballgame with one swing of their bat. Their public personas, however, couldn't be more different, and in the last few days this has never been more evident.

If you're any sort of sports fan, you've no doubt noticed at various points throughout the winter that Manny Ramirez has requested to be traded way from Boston. Problem is, when you can hit .300 with 45 HR and 120 RBI on an annual basis, a team is going to be hard-pressed to find fair value. That's exactly what happened to the Sox was talk of a trade with the Orioles for Miguel Tejada. So Manny is still a Sox. Yesterday, however, it was announced that Ramirez has been given special permission to report to camp on March 1, which is several days later than is required by MLB.

Every time Manny has requested a trade, the fans have been split into two camps: those who want no part of someone who doesn't want to be part of the Red Sox, and those who don't care about what he does off the field as long as he produces. But with this request, how will the fans perceive Ramirez? I, for one, still believe that as long as Manny comes in and hits, let him do his thing. He strikes anyone who's ever spoken with him as being detached, socially abnormal within the boundaries of the spotlight. Let him avoid the media, let him vanish inside the Monster in between innings. Sure, it's frustrating to see the Sox recommence preferential treatment, something that they seemed to be trying to phase out after the departure of Pedro and Nomar. But in my opinion, Ramirez's demands, like the demands of many players today, are symptomatic of a bigger problem: the perception that baseball is more than a game, and that it's players are more important than any one of us.

If I didn't show up for work or demanded special treatment, I would be reprimanded, and if it continued I would be fired. Players sign contracts with teams guaranteeing them a specific amount of money over a period of time. That monetary commitment is not alone. The player is also committing to wear that team's uniform until the best interests of the team are better served by his absence. What players seem to forget is that they don't really have a choice. Demands aren't really demands, are they? A team can decide to let the player hold his breath until his face turns blue, but in the end, the player either shows up and gets paid, or doesn't, and loses out on a lot of money.

I don't think this is Ramirez's problem. I'm sure he'll end up doing what he does best and driving in the runs throughout 2006. But doesn't the club have an obligation to put it's foot down every once in a while?

David Ortiz, however, is on the other side of this equation. Far from being moody superstar, he was an under-the-radar signing in 2003 that ended up spawning one of the most impressive slugging careers in the last few decades. And unlike Ramirez, Ortiz has publicly stated a desire to finish his career in The Hub. He's proven that he's more apt to take a fair offer than go for the top dollar (his last contract was well below market value). Problem is, the Sox have a policy that doesn't allow for contract renegotiation (at least with an sort of urgency) until the close of the current season. That would mean Ortiz playing with the spectre of free agency hanging over his head during 2006.

The Damon and Theo fiascoes of the last year have demonstrated the impracticality of a hard-line stance on this issue, while Tim Wakefield has demonstrated that negotiations can succeed before the offseason. David Ortiz has proven to be a great DH, a great clubhouse guy, a great player with the fans, and one of the most beloved sports figures since that young backup quarterback lead the Patriots to their first championship. Let him get a new contract, not for the rest of his career, but for another 2 or 3 years at least. The fans could use a little hope in a front office that has toyed with the emotions of New England repeatedly over the last few seasons.

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Digg! Tuesday, February 21, 2006

2006 Red Sox Prospects

Prospects, prospects, prospects. It seems all we hear about during the offseason is this guy or that guy, tearing it up in low A ball, putting up killer numbers in Portland, or racking up the K's in Pawtucket. We love them, we hate to trade them, but we don't really know them, do we? Sure, we all heard about how good a prospect Hanley Ramirez was, but not many of us actually witnessed it. So when we dealt him away for Josh Beckett, we got over him relatively quickly. Again, we all heard about how Andy Marte was one of the top prospects in all of baseball, that we had to pay an All-Star caliber shortstop and $11 million to pry him away from the Braves' breeding grounds. But then we saw him escape the crush of Boston hype for the relative calm of Ohio and the Midwest. The fact of the matter is that for the average fan prospects are little more than names dropped by journalists and baseball geeks to salt discussions and articles with the legitimacy of depth of knowledge. Who are these guys? Where do they come from? I'm gonna stack up the top 10 prospects for you here, taking both my order and a significant about of info from a fantastic website, www.soxprospects.com. I'm in St. Louis right now, and one of my freakishly OCD habits is the desire to take with me on a trip only what I can fit in 1 large messenger bag, so most of my baseball reference books bit the dust in the face of necessary clothing. So I'm only packing the Hardball Times with me, but a good book to get if you're at all interested in prospects is the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, or if you're really dedicated, check out www.minorleagueball.com for good articles and the way to pick up a copy of author John Sickels' latest Baseball Prospect Book 2006. And now let's move on to the prospects:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, SP
2. Jon Lester, SP
3. Craig Hansen, RP
4. Dustin Pedroia, SS/2B
5. Manny Delcarmen, RP
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
7. David Murphy, OF
8. Brandon Moss, OF
9. Jed Lowrie, SS/2B
10. Clay Buchholz, SP

WILD CARD: Jeff Natale, 2B

Pitching and defense, pitching and defense. This is the mantra of the Red Sox FO (front office). What the Sox have been preaching for the last 3 years is finally starting to manifest itself in the farm system ratings, and we're just now beginning to reap the rewards of successful drafts and a growing development system. As the organization moves to better understand how to handle prospects so as to avoid someone like Cla Meredith coming up again and giving up a grand slam in his first appearance (Meredith has a good shot at rebounding this year, given the time off as a way to refocus), the fans are going to see a franchise that doesn't need to constantly overpay in cash or prospects for marquee players and aging superstars.

NAME/DRAFTED
1. Jonathan Papelbon: 4th Rnd 2003: Papelbon got his callup in mid to late 2005, and achieved a level of success that did not go unnoticed by both the management, the coaches, and the fans. His demeanor on the mound endeared him as a potentially dominant pitcher, though it remains to be seen whether that dominance will be asserted in the first or last inning. Says SoxProspects.com,
Good pitcher's build with a live arm and solid delivery. Fastball has been clocked up to 95 mph, typically hitting the low-90s with great command. Very good slider and changeup, as well as a slurve curveball. All can be thrown for strikes, and Papelbon has improved his consistency with these pitches. Papelbon also added a splitter to his arsenal in the spring of 2005, after some tutoring from Curt Schilling. Projects as a frontline starter.
Theo has confirmed that Paps will be working in Ft. Myers as a starter, though the success of Keith Foulke as he comes back from offseason surgeries will determine the necessity of someone with Papelbon's mentality in the closer role.

2. Jon Lester: 2nd Rnd 2002: Lester is a lefty, a talented lefty, and that is something very tough to find. For AA Portland in 2005 he went 11-6 with a 2.61 ERA and 163 Ks in 143 innings.
Very athletic lefty. 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs sit in the low 90's, top out in the mid-90s, and have good movement. Lester also utilizes an above-average change-up, an 11-to-5 curveball which sits in the low 70s, and in 2005 worked on developing a cutter. Easy delivery motion with good explosion, similar to Andy Pettitte. Power strikeout pitcher, uses his fastball and occasionally his curve as his out pitch. While Lester typically has top notch control, occasionally he will have games where his control of certain pitchers is off. Very hard worker, prepares will for each game. Has also been compared to Mark Mulder. Great pickoff move.
Yikes. Lester looks to start off in AAA Pawtucket, but could potentially crack the major league roster late in 2006, depending on how the pitching, and consequently the season, shapes up.

3. Craig Hansen: 1st Rnd 2005: Craig Hansen was a holdout, a fluke, a player that shouldn't have dropped to the Red Sox in the first round of last summer's draft. But the fact that his agent was Scott Boras took him off many teams' lists. When Theo & Co. had the chance to nab him, they did, and as a result spent all summer negotiating his contract. When he signed, though, he struck out 10 batters in 9 innings of work before being called up to the bigs for an unimpressive cup of coffee.
Hansen's fastball (the best in the system) has topped out in the high 90s, and he consistently hits the mid-90s. He also possesses an excellent high-80s slider, which also was voted best in the system by Baseball America. A fierce competitor who has an excellent closer mentality. Does not walk many batters. Named "closest to the majors" of all players in the 2005 draft.
Hansen definitely has the potential to be dominant out of the gate this year, possibly in AAA but likely to begin in AA. His arm was fatigued from the college season, and his lack of success in the bigs was probably more a result of that than anything mechanical.

4. Dustin Pedroia: 2nd Rnd 2004: As a shortstop at the University of Arizona, Pedroia proved himself a legit everyday player despite his small size (he's listed at 5'8"). He moved to second base to accomodate Hanley Ramirez in the minors, but with Ramirez's departure could potentially move back to SS as the franchise's top prospect at that position. Built on the model of David Eckstein, Pedroia is one of my personal favorites. He was rated Defensive Player of the Year in the Eastern League, and plays the game with the kind of hustle needed to succeed, impress, and endear. The fact that he's got great hand-eye coordination doesn't hurt either, as he likely would've cracked the big club in 2005 if not for a wrist injury suffered in Pawtucket.
Small infielder had a tremendous career at Arizona State. Average power for a middle infielder, with good bat speed and excellent plate discipline. Loves the game and has fantastic instincts. Plays top-notch defense up the middle, named the 2003 National Defensive Player of the Year. Very scrappy; a great teammate. Moved to second base prior to the start of the 2005 season; Boston hasn't ruled out moving Pedroia back to shortstop.
Although the Sox signed Alex Gonzalez to a 1 year deal, that deal contains a buyout option should they decide not to bring him with them out of camp. This option says to me that there is the strong possibility we could see Pedroia at SS sometime in 2006, possible around the All-Star Break, with Alex Cora keeping his seat warm until it's time. Let's all hope.

5. Manny Delcarmen: 2nd Rnd 2000: Ever dream about what it would be like to be grow up a Sox fan in the shadow of Fenway Park, be drafed by the Sox, and be good enough to be considered one of their top prospects and crack the big club? Well, Manny Delcarmen is living that dream. This West Roxbury, MA native is everybody's hometown hero, bringing the gas after undergoing Tommy John surfery in 2003. In his cup of coffee he punched out 10 batters in a mere 9 IP, and throughout the entirety of the summer posted very good numbers in both double and triple A.
Boston native always dreamed of playing for the Sox. His career was on the fast track with a mid 90s fastball, and an outstanding curveball - until he injured himself in May 2003. Delcarmen had Tommy John surgery in May 2003, but returned to the mound a year later in May 2004. Post-surgery, Delcarmen's fastball may have actually gained velocity, as he has topped out in the high 90s. Delcarmen has average control, with decent changeup and a very good curve which he uses as his out pitch. Delcarmen's father played in the Phillies Organization.
Delcarmen spent a decent amount of time with Boston last year, but I think is a candidate to come out of Pawtucket later in the season. Should somebody like Rudy Seanez or Julian Tavarez suck it up, we could see him Opening Day. It's' fun to watch someone who knows what it's all about. Good thing we didn't ship him to Cleveland...

*NOTE: This is where my prospect knowledge starts to get pretty shallow, so from here on out I'll just toss out the SoxProspects report and maybe a comment or two.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury: 1st Rnd 2005: Ellsbury posted an .850 OPS in 139 games at A Lowell last summer, and half of that number was his OBP (.418). Though he's not going to cannon blasts at the flagpole in center field, Ellsbury is gifted defensively with speed and decent hands.
Ellsbury was on of the best players in the NCAA in 2005. He is very fast, plays excellent defense, and has shown a great ability to get on base. Decent gap power for a centerfielder who projects as a lead-off hitter. Has often been compared to Johnny Damon. Also said to be a team leader.
Ellsbury will likely not see action in the bigs until 2008.

7. David Murphy: 1st Rnd 2003: Though drafted earlier, Murphy seems to be in a similar vein with Ellsbury.
Murphy is a tall, athletic lefty with a sweet swing. Pulls a lot of pitches, and displays excellent patience at the plate. Loves the game, and displays excellent leadership skills. Needs to work on adding more power. Accurate arm with decent range. Average speed. Injury-plagued 2004 season showed mediocre stats.


8. Brandon Moss: 8th Rnd 2002:
Athletic outfielder with a good arm. Excellent approach at the plate - good swing with a raw power. Moss is a competitor. He didn't show much at the plate in his first two professional seasons, but put in a good amount of work in the off-season prior to 2004, producing an outstanding 2004 season in all respects.


9. Jed Lowrie: 1st Rnd 2005: This guy definitely looks like he could be a character on "Hey, Arnold!" on Nickolodeon, but apparently he can play baseball. Weird.
Excellent fielder with a strong arm and above average range. Above average speed on the basepaths with great power for a middle infielder. Hits equally from both sides of the plate. Smart and athletic.


10. Clay Buchholz: 1st Rnd 2005: Just about my brother's age...
Buchholz has a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, curveball, and a circle change. Also played outfield at Angelina College after transferring from McNeese State.


Last but not least, let's take a look at our Wild Card:

BA's #32 in the Boston organization:

Jeff Natale:
32nd Rnd 2005: Why am I putting Natale here, you ask? Well first of all, he was rated as one of the biggest surprises in 2005 by Baseball America, who noted that he has uncanny hand-eye coordination. He ripped Lowell and Greenville to shreds, and looks to continue. It also doesn't hurt that I went to college with him and was acquaintances with him. And when I say acquaintance, read that as I had lunch with him a few times and I think played him once or twice in beer pong. Saw him last week at a lecture/discussion with Buster Olney the day before he shipped out to Ft. Myers. Nice guy.
Hard worker who dominated competition in the NESCAC. Shows a great hitting eye and good speed. Team captain in college.


Hope you've enjoyed this romp through the minors. Again, SoxProspects.com, MinorLeagueBaseball.com and Baseball America are all great places to scope out the latest prospect news and insight.

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Digg! Monday, February 20, 2006

2006 Position Analysis: SP

"You can never have enough starting pitching," is how the old adage goes, and as the success of the 2005 White Sox and Astros demonstrated, some of those old sayings really do ring true. Coupled with a miserable bullpen, the Sox starters in 2005 did nothing to help the cause of a championship defense. This year, things look to be a bit different. The familiar faces (Schilling, Wakefield, Arroyo, Clement, Wells) have been supplemented by a few new ones (Beckett, Papelbon). Whereas the Bosont pitching depth in 2005 hinged on players who were given fliers, the depth in 2006 appears legit.

(Let's try a different format for this article, shall we? I'm kinda getting tired of copying and pasting the stats from Baseball Reference and The Baseball Cube, so from here on out I'll just link you the pages for each respective player.)

Curt Schilling. Will he or won't he be able to pitch at the level required of the man who saved the 2004 season? Ankle surgery in the '04 offseason more or less ensured that hhe would be ineffective in 2005, and though he tried several times to come back, he was mainly unsuccessful.

Behind him, we've got that man, the myth, the legend: Tim Wakefield. When he's on, his knucleball will float and flutter with the most acrobatic of butterflies, but when it's off, you might as well put a scoreboard up on at the edge of each dugout to keep track of the trucks opposing batters will hit on the Mass Pike. You pretty much know what you're going to get from Wake. Despite his age, he's likely good for around 200 innings, 100+ strikeouts, and somewhere around 12 or 13 wins. The longest tenured player on the Sox roster, he will probably be smarted at the outset by the transition from the Mirabelli Era.

David Wells is the other established veteran on this starting staff, and though he pitched very well for a man pushing his mid 40's, he has requested a trade to the West Coast so as to finish his career close to his family. Theo and the front office have promised to do everything possible to get him out there, but his experience and ability, not to mention the depth he brings to rotation, are far too valuable to be replaced by a bag of balls and some Chesapeake Mud.

Getting younger as we move on, you've got Matt Clement, Bronson Arroyo, and our big offseason acquisition, Josh Beckett.Clement needs to come in and prove to everybody that the spurts of dominance and just filthy stuff he showed off at the beginning of 2005 were not flukes, and that despite his declining stats (particularly in the second half) he is worth the $18 million dollars that are still his due from John Henry. Arroyo started off last season with a bang, but when he served his suspension for his part in the beanball war in Tampa Bay he came back a different pitcher. His spot in the rotation is probably the most vulnerable because of his mechanics and his almost rubber arm. Beckett, of course, is most famous for his contributions to the cause of the 2003 World Series-winning Florida Marlins and his WS MVP, but he's just as well known for an incredible average away ERA and recurring blister problems. The fact that he's never once pitched 200 innings in a season and the rumors of a terrifying shoulder MRI continue to haunt him, and though he is potentially the best pitcher to have moved this offseason, he is going to be surrounded by questions. Fenway isn't known as the friendliest place for pitching there if you're not familiar with it, don't ya know? Still, with the depth the Sox are bringing into camp this week, it's hard to see them not see some measure of improvement over last year's rotation.

The one man we have yet to look at, however, could possibly be the most influential of all the starting pitching question marks. I'm talking, of course, of everyone's favorite prospect golden boy Jonathan Papelbon. He's young, he throws smoke, and he was a jolt of life when the Sox needed it down the stretch last summer. He's drawn comparisons to Roger Clemens, and though he has been referenced as a potentially dominant closer, he's being groomed as a starter, and that's the way it should be. Should the Sox trade away David Wells sometime before the beginning of the season, I would see Papelbon as most likely to take his spot in the rotation, with Arroyo remaining in the 'pen. This guy has made every attempt in the offseason to brush aside the comparisons with the Rocket in all but one respect: his workout routine. Gearing up early in his career to make his physical well-being priority number one, Paps could make some serious noise going out.

So despite the question mark and doubts, the Red Sox seem to have taken that old baseball saying to heart, helping take some of the false "Moneyball" shine applied by the media off the front office and proving that "You really can't have enough starting pitching."

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2006 Position Analysis: RP

The 2005Red Sox had one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball, and what had been a relative strength in the 2004 postseason just slit its wrists and bled all over the the schedule. If not for the overwhelming offense the Sox would've dropped like a stone and stayed there, unable to hold onto leads past the sixth inning. The trouble started at the back, with closer Keith Foulke, and continued right on down the line. The 'pen in 2006 holds a slew of new faces and significantly fewer years. The hope is that Terry Francona won't have to worry when he takes the ball from his starters. David Riske, Julian Tavarez, Lenny DiNardo, Mike Timlin, and Rudy Seanez, not to mention either Jonathan Papelbon or Bronson Arroyo, will keep the seats warm just shy of the right field bleachers, and let's all hope they do the job well.

CLOSER:
KEITH FOULKE
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1997 24 TOT 4 5 27 8 0 0 5 3 73.3 88 52 52 13 23 54 4 1 326 2 0 6.38 4.23 66 1.514
SFG NL 1 5 11 8 0 0 0 0 44.7 60 41 41 9 18 33 4 1 209 1 0 8.26 4.12 50 1.746
CHW AL 3 0 16 0 0 0 5 3 28.7 28 11 11 4 5 21 0 0 117 1 0 3.45 4.39 127 1.151
1998 25 CHW AL 3 2 54 0 0 0 18 1 65.3 51 31 30 9 20 57 4 3 267 3 1 4.13 4.56 110 1.087
1999 26 CHW AL 3 3 67 0 0 0 31 9 105.3 72 28 26 11 21 123 3 1 411 4 0 2.22 4.77 215 0.883
2000 27 CHW AL 3 1 72 0 0 0 58 34 88.0 66 31 29 9 22 91 2 1 350 2 0 2.97 5.17 174 1.000
2001 28 CHW AL 4 9 72 0 0 0 69 42 81.0 57 21 21 3 22 75 8 1 322 1 0 2.33 4.62 198 0.975
2002 29 CHW AL 2 4 65 0 0 0 35 11 77.7 65 26 25 7 13 58 2 1 306 2 0 2.90 4.60 159 1.004
2003 30 OAK AL 9 1 72 0 0 0 67 43 86.7 57 21 20 10 20 88 7 0 338 2 1 2.08 4.26 205 0.888
2004 31 BOS AL 5 3 72 0 0 0 61 32 83.0 63 22 20 8 15 79 6 3 333 5 0 2.17 4.87 225 0.940
2005 32 BOS AL 5 5 43 0 0 0 37 15 45.7 53 30 30 8 18 34 5 0 210 1 0 5.91 4.40 75 1.555
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
9 Years 33 8 0 190 572 253 174 41 11 2863 22 2 3.23 4.63 144 1.057
WL%= .535 38 544 0 381 706.0 262 78 659
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
162 Game Avg 4 4 67 0 0 0 46 23 86.7 70 32 31 9 21 81 5 1 352 2 0 3.23 4.63 144 1.057
Career High 9 9 72 8 0 0 69 43 105.3 88 52 52 13 23 123 8 3 411 5 1 2.08 5.17 225 0.883

Foulke had a miserable 2005, due to both personal, off-field problems and physical injury. His fastball lost several mph, and when your fastball and changeup both range in the mid 80s, you know you're in trouble. He allowed 30 earned runs in just over 40 innings pitched. Yikes. He had both of his knees scoped and worked on a number of shoulder issues, during and after last season. He reported early to spring training and has already thrown his first side session. The expectation is that he will retain his closer's role until it has been proven he can no longer handle it.

SETUP:
MIKE TIMLIN
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1991 25 TOR AL 11 6 63 3 0 0 17 3 108.3 94 43 38 6 50 85 1 5 463 11 0 3.16 4.23 134 1.329
1992 26 TOR AL 0 2 26 0 0 0 14 1 43.7 45 23 20 0 20 35 1 0 190 5 0 4.12 4.11 100 1.489
1993 27 TOR AL 4 2 54 0 0 0 27 1 55.7 63 32 29 7 27 49 1 1 254 3 0 4.69 4.38 93 1.617
1994 28 TOR AL 0 1 34 0 0 0 16 2 40.0 41 25 23 5 20 38 2 3 179 0 0 5.18 4.81 93 1.525
1995 29 TOR AL 4 3 31 0 0 0 19 5 42.0 38 13 10 1 17 36 2 3 179 5 1 2.14 4.72 220 1.310
1996 30 TOR AL 1 6 59 0 0 0 56 31 56.7 47 25 23 4 18 52 2 3 230 4 0 3.65 5.30 145 1.147
1997 31 TOT AL 6 4 64 0 0 0 31 10 72.7 69 30 26 8 20 45 1 1 297 5 1 3.22 4.59 142 1.225
TOR AL 3 2 38 0 0 0 26 9 47.0 41 17 15 6 15 36 1 1 190 4 1 2.87 4.62 161 1.191
SEA AL 3 2 26 0 0 0 5 1 25.7 28 13 11 2 5 9 0 0 107 1 0 3.86 4.53 117 1.286
1998 32 SEA AL 3 3 70 0 0 0 40 19 79.3 78 26 26 5 16 60 3 0 321 2 0 2.95 4.66 158 1.185
1999 33 BAL AL 3 9 62 0 0 0 52 27 63.0 51 30 25 9 23 50 5 1 261 3 0 3.57 4.82 135 1.175
2000 34 TOT 5 4 62 0 0 0 40 12 64.7 67 33 30 8 35 52 4 0 295 6 0 4.18 4.68 112 1.577
BAL AL 2 3 37 0 0 0 31 11 35.0 37 22 19 6 15 26 2 0 157 3 0 4.89 4.72 97 1.486
STL NL 3 1 25 0 0 0 9 1 29.7 30 11 11 2 20 26 2 0 138 3 0 3.34 4.64 139 1.685
2001 35 STL NL 4 5 67 0 0 0 19 3 72.7 78 35 33 6 19 47 3 3 307 4 1 4.09 4.32 106 1.335
2002 36 TOT NL 4 6 72 1 0 0 17 0 96.7 75 35 32 15 14 50 5 3 376 2 0 2.98 3.86 130 0.921
STL NL 1 3 42 1 0 0 10 0 61.0 48 19 17 9 7 35 4 1 236 2 0 2.51 3.91 156 0.902
PHI NL 3 3 30 0 0 0 7 0 35.7 27 16 15 6 7 15 1 2 140 0 0 3.79 3.79 100 0.953
2003 37 BOS AL 6 4 72 0 0 0 13 2 83.7 77 37 33 11 9 65 4 0 340 3 0 3.55 4.71 133 1.028
2004 38 BOS AL 5 4 76 0 0 0 12 1 76.3 75 35 35 8 19 56 5 1 320 3 0 4.13 4.87 118 1.231
2005 39 BOS AL 7 3 81 0 0 0 27 13 80.3 86 23 20 2 20 59 2 3 342 5 0 2.24 4.40 197 1.320
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
15 Years 62 4 0 130 984 403 327 41 27 4354 61 3 3.50 4.53 129 1.266
WL%= .504 63 893 0 400 1035.7 445 95 779
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
162 Game Avg 4 4 67 0 0 0 30 9 78.3 74 33 30 7 24 59 3 2 330 4 0 3.50 4.53 129 1.266
Career High 11 9 81 3 0 0 56 31 108.3 94 43 38 15 50 85 5 5 463 11 1 2.14 5.30 220 0.921
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

**PAO: 342 BFP/ 17% K/ 6% BB/ 34% GB/ 19% OF/ 3% IF/ 20% LD/ 1% OTHER

Timlin led the league in appearances in 2005, with a whopping 80.3 innings of work. That be impressive if he were a rookie, but Timlin is entering his 16th season and goign on 40 years old. He was lights out much of the time, and helped solidify a tattered bullpen. Although his personal ERA is stellar for a 39 year old in the AL East, Timlin was miserable at keeping inherited runners from scoring. It would be foolish to expect an identical performance in 2006, but his work ethic and intensity are second to none. Let's just hope nothing happens to him while pitching for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. Lessening the load on Timlin, however, will be one of the front office's best pickups, in my opinion.

JULIAN TAVAREZ
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1993 20 CLE AL 2 2 8 7 0 0 0 0 37.0 53 29 27 7 13 19 2 3 172 2 1 6.57 4.34 66 1.784
1994 21 CLE AL 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1.7 6 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 14 1 0 21.60 4.71 22 4.200
1995 22 CLE AL 10 2 57 0 0 0 15 0 85.0 76 36 23 7 21 68 3 3 350 0 2 2.44 4.63 190 1.141
1996 23 CLE AL 4 7 51 4 0 0 13 0 80.7 101 49 48 9 22 46 1 1 353 5 0 5.36 4.90 91 1.525
1997 24 SFG NL 6 4 89 0 0 0 13 0 88.3 91 43 38 6 34 38 4 4 378 5 0 3.87 4.12 106 1.415
1998 25 SFG NL 5 3 60 0 0 0 12 1 85.3 96 41 36 5 36 52 8 1 374 11 1 3.80 4.07 107 1.547
1999 26 SFG NL 2 0 47 0 0 0 12 0 54.7 65 38 36 7 25 33 8 4 258 3 1 5.93 4.11 69 1.646
2000 27 COL NL 11 5 51 12 1 0 8 1 120.0 124 68 59 11 53 62 7 2 530 9 1 4.42 5.94 134 1.475
2001 28 CHC NL 10 9 34 28 0 0 1 0 161.3 172 98 81 13 69 107 11 2 712 4 1 4.52 4.23 94 1.494
2002 29 FLA NL 10 12 29 27 0 0 1 0 153.7 188 100 92 9 74 67 15 7 714 7 2 5.39 3.99 74 1.705
2003 30 PIT NL 3 3 64 0 0 0 29 11 83.7 75 37 34 1 27 39 5 3 350 8 0 3.66 4.24 116 1.219
2004 31 STL NL 7 4 77 0 0 0 27 4 64.3 57 21 17 1 19 48 6 2 268 0 1 2.38 4.18 176 1.181
2005 32 STL NL 2 3 74 0 0 0 16 4 65.7 68 28 25 6 19 47 8 1 278 4 0 3.43 4.27 125 1.325
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
13 Yr WL% .567 72 55 642 79 1 0 147 21 1081.3 1172 596 520 83 413 626 78 33 4751 59 10 4.33 4.44 103 1.466
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
162 Game Avg 6 5 60 7 0 0 13 1 101.7 110 56 49 7 38 59 7 3 448 5 0 4.33 4.44 103 1.466
Career High 11 12 89 28 1 0 29 11 161.3 188 100 92 13 74 107 15 7 714 11 2 2.38 5.94 190 1.141

The biggest knock against Tavarez, who spent the last two years in St. Louis to the dismay of most Cardinal fans, is his attitude. Well, that and the fact that he looks like Freddy Krueger. He did relatively well with the Cards, and though he may not be the most dominant pitcher to ever don a uniform, he has an attitude that's just crazy enough to lend him success against the stiff AL competition. Interestingly, there hasn't been a single photo of Tavarez in the Globe's galleries, even though all pitchers and catchers were required to report to camp on Saturday.

GENERAL RELIEF:
DAVID RISKE
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1999 22 CLE AL 1 1 12 0 0 0 3 0 14.0 20 15 13 2 6 16 0 0 68 0 0 8.36 5.02 60 1.857
2001 24 CLE AL 2 0 26 0 0 0 6 1 27.3 20 7 6 3 18 29 2 1 118 3 0 1.98 4.53 229 1.390
2002 25 CLE AL 2 2 51 0 0 0 17 1 51.3 49 32 30 8 35 65 4 1 237 4 0 5.26 4.51 86 1.636
2003 26 CLE AL 2 2 68 0 0 0 24 8 74.7 52 21 19 9 20 82 3 1 293 3 0 2.29 4.26 186 0.964
2004 27 CLE AL 7 3 72 0 0 0 27 5 77.3 69 32 32 11 41 78 2 3 336 4 0 3.72 4.54 122 1.422
2005 28 CLE AL 3 4 58 0 0 0 33 1 72.7 55 28 25 11 15 48 4 0 288 0 0 3.10 4.10 132 0.963
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
6 Yr WL% .586 17 12 287 0 0 0 110 16 317.3 265 135 125 44 135 318 15 6 1340 14 0 3.55 4.39 124 1.261
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
162 Game Avg 4 2 68 0 0 0 26 3 75.0 62 31 29 10 31 75 3 1 317 3 0 3.55 4.39 124 1.261
Career High 7 4 72 0 0 0 33 8 77.3 69 32 32 11 41 82 4 3 336 4 0 2.29 4.54 186 0.963

Acquired in the trade for Coco Crisp, Riske replaces the departing Guillermo Mota. His upside is great: he's going on 29, posted an ERA just over 3 for the Tribe in 2005, and in a bullpen devoid of left-handed relievers, Riske poses a serious threat to southpaw sluggers. He unfortunately fell out of favor with the Cleveland coaching staff after allowing some big hits in some key spots, but the hope is his intensity will serve him well in Boston, especially under a manager who tends to continue playing relievers regardless of how they're doing (see: Alan Embree in 2005). He could help anchor the bullpen for the next couple years.

RUDY SEANEZ
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
1989 20 CLE AL 0 0 5 0 0 0 2 0 5.0 1 2 2 0 4 7 0 1 20 1 1 3.60 3.97 110 1.000
1990 21 CLE AL 2 1 24 0 0 0 12 0 27.3 22 17 17 2 25 24 1 5 127 1 0 5.60 3.92 70 1.720
1991 22 CLE AL 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 5.0 10 12 9 2 7 7 0 2 33 0 0 16.20 4.14 26 3.400
1993 24 SDP NL 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 3.3 8 6 5 1 2 1 0 0 20 0 0 13.50 4.17 31 3.000
1994 25 LAD NL 1 1 17 0 0 0 6 0 23.7 24 7 7 2 9 18 1 3 104 1 0 2.66 3.92 147 1.394
1995 26 LAD NL 1 3 37 0 0 0 12 3 34.7 39 27 26 5 18 29 1 0 159 3 0 6.75 3.81 56 1.644
1998 29 ATL NL 4 1 34 0 0 0 8 2 36.0 25 13 11 2 16 50 1 2 148 0 0 2.75 4.24 154 1.139
1999 30 ATL NL 6 1 56 0 0 0 13 3 53.7 47 21 20 3 21 41 1 3 225 1 0 3.35 4.34 129 1.267
2000 31 ATL NL 2 4 23 0 0 0 8 2 21.0 15 11 10 3 9 20 1 0 89 1 0 4.29 4.64 108 1.143
2001 32 TOT NL 0 2 38 0 0 0 8 1 36.0 23 12 11 4 19 41 1 4 150 0 0 2.75 4.14 151 1.167
SDP NL 0 2 26 0 0 0 8 1 24.0 15 8 7 3 15 24 1 1 102 0 0 2.62 4.01 153 1.250
ATL NL 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 12.0 8 4 4 1 4 17 0 3 48 0 0 3.00 4.41 147 1.000
2002 33 TEX AL 1 3 33 0 0 0 4 0 33.0 28 25 21 5 24 40 0 6 150 1 0 5.73 4.91 86 1.576
2003 34 BOS AL 0 1 9 0 0 0 4 0 8.7 11 7 6 2 6 9 0 3 44 1 0 6.23 4.71 76 1.962
2004 35 TOT 3 2 39 0 0 0 15 0 46.0 39 17 17 3 19 46 0 4 193 3 0 3.33 4.28 129 1.261
KCR AL 0 1 16 0 0 0 7 0 23.0 21 10 10 0 11 21 0 3 100 2 0 3.91 4.45 114 1.391
FLA NL 3 1 23 0 0 0 8 0 23.0 18 7 7 3 8 25 0 1 93 1 0 2.74 4.10 150 1.130
2005 36 SDP NL 7 1 57 0 0 0 9 0 60.3 49 19 18 4 22 84 2 4 248 4 0 2.69 3.85 143 1.177
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
14 Yr WL% .574 27 20 380 0 0 0 104 11 393.7 341 196 180 38 201 417 9 37 1710 17 1 4.12 4.19 102 1.377
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
162 Game Avg 4 3 68 0 0 0 18 1 70.3 61 35 32 6 35 74 1 6 306 3 0 4.12 4.19 102 1.377
Career High 7 4 57 0 0 0 15 3 60.3 49 27 26 5 25 84 2 6 248 4 1 2.69 4.34 143 1.177
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB BK ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP

Seanez is something of a journeyman, and although his first stint in Boston was brief and ineffective, he posted some decent years after that, most notably in San Diego. Age here is a concern, as he'll be turning 37. When many relievers reach that age they lose the "stuff" and have to really begin to "pitch". He's done it elsewhere, but can he do it in the Fens.

LENNY DINARDO
Order Baseball Data
Year Team Name League Age Org. Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK h9 hr9 w9 k9 whip
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 Capital City SAL 22 Nym A 5 5 4.35 24 19 0 0 1 1 101.1 106 60 49 3 56 103 11 0 9.41 0.27 4.97 9.15 1.60
2003 St. Lucie FSL 23 Nym A 3 8 2.01 19 13 1 0 2 1 85.0 64 27 19 1 14 93 5 6.78 0.11 1.48 9.85 0.92
2003 Binghamton East 23 Nym AA 1 3 3.60 7 7 1 0 0 0 40.0 35 19 16 3 13 36 0 7.88 0.68 2.92 8.10 1.20
2004 GCL Red Sox GCL 24 Bos Rk 0 0 0.00 2 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 9.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 1.00
2004 Sarasota FSL 24 Bos A 0 0 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 6.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.67
2004 Portland East 24 Bos AA 1 0 9.53 3 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 8 6 6 1 1 4 1 12.71 1.59 1.59 6.35 1.59
2004 Pawtucket IL 24 Bos AAA 0 0 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 9.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 1.00
2004 Boston Red Sox AL 24 Bos MLB 0 0 4.23 22 0 0 0 6 0 27.2 34 17 13 1 12 21 1 0 11.06 0.33 3.90 6.83 1.66
2005 Pawtucket IL 26 Bos AAA 6 3 3.15 23 22 0 0 0 108.2 109 51 38 7 35 93 1 3 9.03 0.58 2.90 7.70 1.33
2005 Boston Red Sox AL 26 Bos MLB 0 1 1.84 8 1 0 0 3 0 14.2 13 6 3 1 5 15 1 0 7.98 0.61 3.07 9.20 1.23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Totals: 2 years 0 1 3.40 30 1 0 0 0 42.1 47 23 16 2 17 36 2 0 9.99 0.43 3.61 7.65 1.51
Minor League Totals: 3 years 10 16 3.36 57 42 2 0 3 2 241.0 221 112 90 8 84 247 17 0 8.25 0.30 3.14 9.22 1.27
MLB Average: 2 years 0 0 3.40 15 0 0 0 0 21.0 23 11 8 1 8 18 1 0 9.99 0.43 3.61 7.65 1.51

Acquired via a Rule 5 pick from the Mets, Lenny DiNardo is the only lefty in the entire group of likely Sox relievers. He's young, has a decent curve and cutter, and although he started for Pawtucket, DiNardo pitched lights out for the Sox after his late-season callup. Tallying 15 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched, DiNardo may have simply found the confidence and capacity to pitch to big league hitters. Should he succeed, his youth would help the bullpen for the next several years.

The striking thing about the Sox bullpen in 2006 is that is very clearly in a state of flux. The older relievers are starting to phase out, and we're starting to see an influx of youth from the farm system. This ownership knows that pitching and defense win championships, and their commitment to developing talent as demonstrated and yielded results. Should any of the options currently mentioned fail to pan out, we could see pitchers like Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarmen in the big leagues before long. The 2006 bullpen may be full of question marks due to it's untested nature, but it certainly has some serious potential for success.

Labels:

2006 Position Analysis: DH

Yeah, yeah, I know. This one's somewhat pointless, but I'm gonna give all you naysayers out there the same line I give people who say that people who are primarily a DH during their career shouldn't be penalized for playing a position that is part of the rules of the American League. Sure, Charlie Finley was a crazy bastard and this rule is partly his love child, but it has given rise to some amazingly dramatic battles since it's inception in 1973. I mean cmon, are you trying to tell me you weren't the least bit interested when Boston's El Tiante walked New York's Ron Blomberg in the first plate appearance ever by a DH? The rule has extended careers of numerous big leaguers, and it has given men like Edgar Martinez and our very own David Artiz a comfortable home.

DAVID ORTIZ
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1997 21 MIN AL 15 49 10 16 3 0 1 6 0 0 2 19 .327 .353 .449 22 0 0 0 0 1
1998 22 MIN AL 86 278 47 77 20 0 9 46 1 0 39 72 .277 .371 .446 124 0 4 3 5 8
1999 23 MIN AL 10 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 .000 .200 .000 0 0 0 0 0 2
2000 24 MIN AL 130 415 59 117 36 1 10 63 1 0 57 81 .282 .364 .446 185 0 6 2 0 13
2001 25 MIN AL 89 303 46 71 17 1 18 48 1 0 40 68 .234 .324 .475 144 1 2 8 1 6
2002 26 MIN AL 125 412 52 112 32 1 20 75 1 2 43 87 .272 .339 .500 206 0 8 0 3 5
2003 27 BOS AL 128 448 79 129 39 2 31 101 0 0 58 83 .288 .369 .592 265 0 2 8 1 9
2004 28 BOS AL 150 582 94 175 47 3 41 139 0 0 75 133 .301 .380 .603 351 0 8 8 4 12
2005 29 BOS AL 159 601 119 180 40 1 47 148 1 0 102 124 .300 .397 .604 363 0 9 9 1 13
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
9 Seasons 892 3108 507 877 234 9 177 626 5 2 421 679 .282 .366 .534 1660 1 39 38 15 69
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 564 92 159 42 2 32 114 1 0 76 123 .282 .366 .534 301 0 7 7 3 13
Career High 159 601 119 180 47 3 47 148 1 2 102 133 .301 .397 .604 363 1 9 9 5 13

**PAO: 713 AB/17% K/14% BB/21% GB/28% OF/3% IF/15% LD/ 0% OTHER

The Red Sox have this lineup slot all filled up for this season and 2007 (Ortiz has an option year in '07), and Ortiz has been talking rather vocally to the media about his desire to finish his career in Boston. I, for one, hope the front office learned something from the Theo debacle and will give Ortiz a contract extension either before the season gets underway or work with him through the entirety of the 2006 season.

Ortiz is a monster. His emergence from the relative unknown of Minnesota onto the big stage in the Northeast has created a baseball superstar in the span of only a few years. In my mind, it was Ortiz who was the MVP of the AL last year, because without his bat in the lineup, the Sox would've been much farther down in the standings (that's not a homer vote, either, since the MVP of the Yankees was really Mariano Rivera, but you didn't see him get the recognition he deserved, did you?). Unlike the winner last year, Ortiz is not only a solid regular season performer, but he shines in the postseason as well. We all remember how he singlehandedly carried the Red Sox on his back during the 2004 postseason, and how in 2003 it was Ortiz's double off of Keith Foulke that helped keep the Sox alive. Look at these numbers:

Postseason Batting

Year Round Tm Opp WLser G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB CS SH SF HBP
+------------------+-----+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+--+--+--+--+--+
2002 ALDS MIN OAK W 4 13 0 3 2 0 0 2 0 5 .231 .231 .385 0 0 0 0 0
ALCS MIN ANA L 5 16 0 5 1 0 0 2 0 5 .312 .312 .375 0 0 0 0 0
2003 ALDS BOS OAK W 5 21 0 2 1 0 0 2 2 7 .095 .174 .143 0 0 0 0 0
ALCS BOS NYY L 7 26 4 7 1 0 2 6 3 8 .269 .367 .538 0 0 0 0 1
2004 ALDS BOS ANA W 3 11 4 6 2 0 1 4 5 2 .545 .688 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
ALCS BOS NYY W 7 31 6 12 0 1 3 11 4 7 .387 .457 .742 0 1 0 0 0
WS BOS STL W 4 13 3 4 1 0 1 4 4 1 .308 .471 .615 0 0 0 0 0
2005 ALDS BOS CHW L 3 12 2 4 2 0 1 1 0 3 .333 .333 .750 0 0
+------------------+-----+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+--+--+--+--+--+
4 Lg Div Series 3-1 15 57 6 15 7 0 2 9 7 17 .263 .344 .491 0 0 0 0 0
3 Lg Champ Series 1-2 19 73 10 24 2 1 5 19 7 20 .329 .395 .589 0 1 0 0 1
8 Postseason Ser 5-3 38 143 19 43 10 1 8 32 18 38 .301 .383 .552 0 1 0 0 1
+------------------+-----+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+--+--+--+--+--+

Anytime you have a batter who can post career postseason numbers that look like Papi's (.301/.383/.552) you hang onto him, because you know you've got a keeper. Of course, should David injure himself, the Sox would be hard-pressed to recover, as they don't really have any pure sluggers in their system. Roberto Petagine (who was dropped from the 40 man when Alex Gonzalez was signed) probably would've been the most logical choice as a fill-in. I guess now it could be George Lombard (.262/.357/.472 with 20 HR in 2005 at AAA Pawtucket) or maybe Justin Sherrod (.259/.331/.441 with 16 HR at AAA).

Why I wrote this, I don't even know. Really, I just wanted to tell you that David Ortiz is really freakin' good.

Final Prediction
STARTER: David Ortiz
BACKUPS: George Lombard, Justin Sherrod

Labels:

2006 Position Analysis: OF

I know that all of you readers out there are starting to ask yourselves, "Why the heck does he keep changing around the formatting of the site? Well, boredom is a pretty big reason, but I've also been looking for just the right combination of personal touch, fidelity to the fact that this is a site dedicated specifically to the Red Sox, and the effective balance of colors and white spaces. So yea, boredom. Anyways, let's keep going with our positional analysis.
Spring has sprung, pitchers and catchers have been inside the Fort since Sunday, and the position players have started to trickle in the front gate. One of the foremost topics around the water coolers in Red Sox Nation has been the status of one Manuel Aristides Ramirez Onelcida, and whether or not he'll show his smiling face 'neath the Monster come April. Whether or not he does will not only affect the pop in the middle of the Sox' lineup but also the general makeup of the outfield. And that is where we will be focusing today, the green pastures of Fenway's outfield. Just a note: in addition to the career hitting stats from Baseball Reference and the scouting reports from The Sporting News (which will be added once I get back to New England and access my book) I’m going to be inserting the Plate Appearance Outcome percentages calculated by the good folks at The Hardball Times in their 2006 Annual. For batters with more than 300 AB in 2005 they break down the sum of those plate appearances into K% / BB% / GB% / OF% / IF% / LD% / OTHER%. And once get the 2006 Baseball Prospectus Guide at the end of this month, I’ll hopefully plug in PECOTA predictions (I could get them now, but I’ll just wait a little bit and save 20 bucks…).

STARTERS (LF/CF/RF):
MANNY RAMÍREZ [LF]
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1993 21 CLE AL 22 53 5 9 1 0 2 5 0 0 2 8 .170 .200 .302 16 0 0 0 0 3
1994 22 CLE AL 91 290 51 78 22 0 17 60 4 2 42 72 .269 .357 .521 151 0 4 4 0 6
1995 23 CLE AL 137 484 85 149 26 1 31 107 6 6 75 112 .308 .402 .558 270 2 5 6 5 13
1996 24 CLE AL 152 550 94 170 45 3 33 112 8 5 85 104 .309 .399 .582 320 0 9 8 3 18
1997 25 CLE AL 150 561 99 184 40 0 26 88 2 3 79 115 .328 .415 .538 302 0 4 5 7 19
1998 26 CLE AL 150 571 108 168 35 2 45 145 5 3 76 121 .294 .377 .599 342 0 10 6 6 18
1999 27 CLE AL 147 522 131 174 34 3 44 165 2 4 96 131 .333 .442 .663 346 0 9 9 13 12
2000 28 CLE AL 118 439 92 154 34 2 38 122 1 1 86 117 .351 .457 .697 306 0 4 9 3 9
2001 29 BOS AL 142 529 93 162 33 2 41 125 0 1 81 147 .306 .405 .609 322 0 2 25 8 9
2002 30 BOS AL 120 436 84 152 31 0 33 107 0 0 73 85 .349 .450 .647 282 0 1 14 8 13
2003 31 BOS AL 154 569 117 185 36 1 37 104 3 1 97 94 .325 .427 .587 334 0 5 28 8 22
2004 32 BOS AL 152 568 108 175 44 0 43 130 2 4 82 124 .308 .397 .613 348 0 7 15 6 17
2005 33 BOS AL 152 554 112 162 30 1 45 144 1 0 80 119 .292 .388 .594 329 0 6 9 10 20
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
13 Seasons 6126 1922 15 1414 30 1349 .314 .409 .599 2 66 138 77 179
1687 1179 411 435 34 954 3668
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 588 113 185 39 1 42 136 3 3 92 130 .314 .409 .599 352 0 6 13 7 17
Career High 154 571 131 185 45 3 45 165 8 6 97 147 .351 .457 .697 348 2 10 28 13 22

**Plate Appearance Outcome (PAO): 650 AB/ 18% SO/ 14% BB/ 25% GB/ 24% OF/ 2% IF/ 16% LD/ 0% OTH


COCO CRISP [CF]
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2002 22 CLE AL 32 127 16 33 9 2 1 9 4 1 11 19 .260 .314 .386 49 3 2 0 0 0
2003 23 CLE AL 99 414 55 110 15 6 3 27 15 9 23 51 .266 .302 .353 146 7 3 1 0 4
2004 24 CLE AL 139 491 78 146 24 2 15 71 20 13 36 69 .297 .344 .446 219 9 2 4 0 8
2005 25 CLE AL 145 594 86 178 42 4 16 69 15 6 44 81 .300 .345 .465 276 13 5 1 0 7
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
4 Seasons 415 1626 235 467 90 14 35 176 54 29 114 220 .287 .332 .424 690 32 12 6 0 19
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 635 92 182 35 5 14 69 21 11 45 86 .287 .332 .424 269 12 5 2 0 7
Career High 145 594 86 178 42 6 16 71 20 13 44 81 .300 .345 .465 276 13 5 4 0 8

**PAO: 656/ 12%/ 7%/ 36%/ 23%/ 4%/ 15%/ 4%


TROT NIXON [RF]
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1996 22 BOS AL 2 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 .500 .500 .750 3 0 0 0 0 0
1998 24 BOS AL 13 27 3 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .259 .286 .296 8 0 0 0 0 0
1999 25 BOS AL 124 381 67 103 22 5 15 52 3 1 53 75 .270 .357 .472 180 2 8 1 3 7
2000 26 BOS AL 123 427 66 118 27 8 12 60 8 1 63 85 .276 .368 .461 197 5 5 2 2 11
2001 27 BOS AL 148 535 100 150 31 4 27 88 7 4 79 113 .280 .376 .505 270 6 6 1 7 8
2002 28 BOS AL 152 532 81 136 36 3 24 94 4 2 65 109 .256 .338 .470 250 3 7 2 5 7
2003 29 BOS AL 134 441 81 135 24 6 28 87 4 2 65 96 .306 .396 .578 255 1 3 4 3 3
2004 30 BOS AL 48 149 24 47 9 1 6 23 0 0 15 24 .315 .377 .510 76 0 2 1 1 3
2005 31 BOS AL 124 408 64 112 29 1 13 67 2 1 53 59 .275 .357 .446 182 0 6 3 3 7
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
9 Seasons 868 2904 488 810 180 28 125 471 29 11 394 565 .279 .366 .489 1421 17 37 14 24 46
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 542 91 151 34 5 23 88 5 2 74 105 .279 .366 .489 265 3 7 3 4 9
Career High 152 535 100 150 36 8 28 94 8 4 79 113 .306 .396 .578 270 6 8 4 7 11

**PAO: 470/ 13%/ 12%/ 30%/ 28%/ 3%/ 15%/ 0%


BACKUPS/PLATOONS:
GABE KAPLER
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1998 22 DET AL 7 25 3 5 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 4 .200 .231 .280 7 0 0 0 0 0
1999 23 DET AL 130 416 60 102 22 4 18 49 11 5 42 74 .245 .315 .447 186 4 4 0 2 7
2000 24 TEX AL 116 444 59 134 32 1 14 66 8 4 42 57 .302 .360 .473 210 2 3 2 0 12
2001 25 TEX AL 134 483 77 129 29 1 17 72 23 6 61 70 .267 .348 .437 211 2 7 2 3 10
2002 26 TOT 112 315 37 88 16 4 2 34 11 4 16 53 .279 .313 .375 118 7 3 0 1 5
TEX AL 72 196 25 51 12 1 0 17 5 2 8 30 .260 .285 .332 65 7 3 0 0 3
COL NL 40 119 12 37 4 3 2 17 6 2 8 23 .311 .359 .445 53 0 0 0 1 2
2003 27 TOT 107 225 39 61 13 1 4 27 6 2 22 41 .271 .336 .391 88 0 0 1 0 8
COL NL 39 67 10 15 2 0 0 4 2 0 8 18 .224 .307 .254 17 0 0 1 0 3
BOS AL 68 158 29 46 11 1 4 23 4 2 14 23 .291 .349 .449 71 0 0 0 0 5
2004 28 BOS AL 136 290 51 79 14 1 6 33 5 4 15 49 .272 .311 .390 113 1 2 0 2 5
2005 29 BOS AL 36 97 15 24 7 0 1 9 1 0 3 15 .247 .282 .351 34 1 1 0 2 1
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
8 Seasons 778 2295 341 622 133 13 62 290 67 25 202 363 .271 .330 .421 967 17 20 5 10 48
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 478 71 130 28 3 13 60 14 5 42 76 .271 .330 .421 201 4 4 1 2 10
Career High 136 483 77 134 32 4 18 72 23 6 61 74 .302 .360 .473 211 7 7 2 3 12


DUSTAN MOHR:
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2001 25 MIN AL 20 51 6 12 2 0 0 4 1 1 5 17 .235 .298 .275 14 0 1 0 0 0
2002 26 MIN AL 120 383 55 103 23 2 12 45 6 3 31 86 .269 .325 .433 166 2 0 3 1 5
2003 27 MIN AL 121 348 50 87 22 0 10 36 5 2 33 106 .250 .314 .399 139 2 3 0 1 10
2004 28 SFG NL 117 263 52 72 20 1 7 28 0 3 46 64 .274 .394 .437 115 4 3 3 8 5
2005 29 COL NL 98 266 34 57 10 3 17 38 1 2 23 94 .214 .280 .466 124 0 2 2 2 3
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
5 Seasons 476 1311 197 331 77 6 46 151 13 11 138 367 .252 .327 .426 558 8 9 8 12 23
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 446 67 113 26 2 16 51 4 4 47 125 .252 .327 .426 190 3 3 3 4 8
Career High 121 383 55 103 23 3 17 45 6 3 46 106 .274 .394 .466 166 4 3 3 8 10


WILLIE HARRIS
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2001 23 BAL AL 9 24 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 .125 .125 .167 4 1 0 0 0 0
2002 24 CHW AL 49 163 14 38 4 0 2 12 8 0 9 21 .233 .270 .294 48 3 2 0 0 3
2003 25 CHW AL 79 137 19 28 3 1 0 5 12 2 10 28 .204 .259 .241 33 3 0 0 0 1
2004 26 CHW AL 129 409 68 107 15 2 2 27 19 7 51 79 .262 .343 .323 132 7 3 0 1 4
2005 27 CHW AL 56 121 17 31 2 1 1 8 10 3 13 25 .256 .333 .314 38 4 0 0 1 1
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
5 Seasons 322 854 121 207 25 4 5 52 49 12 83 160 .242 .309 .299 255 18 5 0 2 9
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 430 61 104 13 2 3 26 25 6 42 80 .242 .309 .299 128 9 3 0 1 5
Career High 129 409 68 107 15 2 2 27 19 7 51 79 .262 .343 .323 132 7 3 0 1 4


ADAM STERN
Year Team Name League Age Org. Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP Avg Obp Slg Ops
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1999 U. of Nebraska NCAA 19 NCAA 38 61 17 12 4 1 1 12 2 0 2 14 0 2 0 1 .197 .222 .344 566
2000 U. of Nebraska NCAA 20 NCAA 60 216 54 77 12 2 0 45 12 3 24 26 3 9 4 6 .356 .421 .431 852
2001 U. of Nebraska NCAA 21 NCAA 64 267 68 78 8 4 5 47 27 5 34 33 6 9 3 1 .292 .381 .408 789
2001 Jamestown NYPL 21 Atl A 21 75 20 23 4 2 0 11 9 4 15 11 0 0 0 2 0 .307 .413 .413 826
2002 Myrtle Beach Caro 22 Atl A 119 462 65 117 22 10 3 47 40 8 27 89 3 2 10 1 3 .253 .298 .364 662
2003 GCL Braves GCL 23 Atl Rk 7 29 6 10 1 0 1 6 2 2 6 3 0 0 1 0 1 .345 .457 .483 940
2003 Myrtle Beach Caro 23 Atl A 28 103 11 20 2 0 0 6 7 3 13 21 0 0 4 1 1 .194 .282 .214 496
2004 Greenville Sou 24 Atl AA 102 394 64 127 26 6 8 47 27 10 35 58 2 2 1 3 2 .322 .378 .480 858
2005 Pawtucket IL 25 Bos AAA 20 81 16 26 8 0 2 14 3 1 8 10 1 1 1 1 2 .321 .385 .494 879
2005 Boston Red Sox AL 25 Bos MLB 36 15 4 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 .133 .188 .333 521
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Totals: 1 years 36 15 4 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 .133 .188 .333 521
Minor League Totals: 5 years 297 1144 182 323 63 18 14 131 88 28 104 192 6 5 17 8 9 .282 .343 .406 749


As we begin our examination in left field, the Red Sox have one of the best righthanded hitters of the last couple decades in Manny Ramírez. He despite his lackadaisical play on the defensive side of the ball, Ramirez is one of the top contributors in the game today, a perennial candidate for AL MVP. He should have 500 HR before his current contract with Boston expires, and a career OPS of 1.008, something that is nothing short of spectacular for a player who has never been accused of steroid use. Manny has power to all fields, and is considered one of the few batters in the League today capable of actually setting up a pitcher. In 2005 his season began rather slowly, and his numbers against lefthanders suffered enormously. To the naked eye, Ramirez looked less comfortable at the plate: his swing was long and he stood further out in the box, making him unusually susceptible to outside pitches. His numbers recovered, though, and he went on to post close to his usual numbers of .298/.388/.594 for the season. Defensively, Ramirez is about as poor as you can get, though with the short LF wall he can play an average defensive game. His arm strength is surprising, and he led the league in outfield assists. It goes without saying that Ramirez will, if he isn’t spun off in a terrible trade before the opening of the season, be the starting left fielder and occupy his usual spot in the 3 or 4 hole in the lineup next to David Ortiz. Who cares about his mental oddities? With a bat like that, I’d have no problem if he decided Saturday night he would go to the Avalon in his best designer miniskirt and stripper boots.

Coco Crisp has been the the talk of New England since late December, when Johnny Damon decided that money wasn’t the most important thing for him, and then went to sign a contract in the Bronx for $13 million more than Boston was offering. I guess his feelings were hurt. (Note: I’m actually not that bothered by the fact that he left, because I think this team needed to get younger. It just bothered me, and interestingly most Yankee fans I know, that Damon decided that the heart and soul of the Red Sox now wore pinstripes, and then he proceeded to rip apart every part of the team he didn’t think he was the leader of. Getting back to the point…)

Crisp has a lot of upside. In no particular order he’s young, he’s reasonably fast, has a below average arm that is better than Damon’s, he’s a switch hitter, and he gets the bat on the ball. His offensive numbers have climbed every year for the last three, batting around .300 with a ~.340 OBP. His power numbers aren’t spectacular, but they stand to improve a little batting in front of Loretta, Ortiz, and Ramirez. The dimensions of the triangle in Fenway's center field may give him a bit more trouble than left field at the Jake, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone that would consider him any sort of defensive liability. He will not replace Johnny Damon, that much is for sure, at least for now. His range isn’t as good and his hair isn’t as long. But he can read, write, speak, and reference more pop culture than the latest Green Day album. He only cost the Sox one of the best prospects in the game (who was so good he got traded twice within the span of 2 months.) I think most people are starting to come to some sort of peace with the fact that the dynamic hitter at the top of the Sox lineup will not be back, and that he will be replaced with someone who has the potential to put up strong numbers in comparison without being a clubhouse jackass in the process.

Finally, in right field, Trot Nixon names his home. This self-proclaimed "dirt dog" was Boston's first round pick in the 1993 amateur draft, but has never really lived up to the expectations that preceded him. His entire career has been plagued by injuries to his back, his calf, his quad, his ability to hit lefties... everything. Nixon's overall offense has been impressive, posting a .279/.366/.489 line for his career, and his defense has also never been in question, as he puts everything into every play he makes. His range and speed have declined over the last couple years as a result of both age and injury, but he will, barring injury, be a steady fixture in right field for the majority of the 2006 season.

The backups and platoons are an interesting situation, to be sure. There are more than a few to choose from, and we're likely to see one or two with the Sox throughout the season. The sentimental favorite is Gabe Kapler, who in 2003, 2004, and 2005 endeared himself to the Boston fans with his huge grin, team attitude, and all-out style of play. The injury he suffered in 2005 to his Achilles has him sidelined for at least the first month or so of the season, probably more. I would consider him a favorite when his health catches up no only because of the fans, but also because of what he provides in the clubhouse. If you'll recall, it was Kapler in 2004 who called everyone on the team out in the press during that miserable three month stint of .500 baseball. And what's more, Tito loves him.

Still, you've got to be healthy to play, and among the three options outside of Gabe the Babe, Dustan Mohr (as a possible RF platoon against lefties) and Willie Harris (the speedy utility man from the White Sox) look to be moving in. Adam Stern is on the 40 man roster simply because of the requirements he's subject to as a Rule 5 draft pick. Once the 18 days left are served, look for him to be sent to Pawtucket to develop better routes to the ball and some plate discipline.

Final Prediction
STARTERS: Manny Ramirez, Coco Crisp, Trot Nixon
BACKUPS/PLATOONs: Gabe Kapler (post-recovery), Dustan Mohr

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Digg! Wednesday, February 15, 2006

2006 Position Analysis: SS

Nomar, oh Nomar, where have you gone? First base for the Dodgers. And Orlando, sweet Orlando, your glove never looked so good as it did here. Now it's in LosAnaheim basking in the sun. And Edgar, quiet Edgar, where will your elongated swing show up next? Atlanta, where baseball goes to be reborn. So where does this leave the Royal Rooters of Red Sox Nation? It leaves us with a man who has toiled in obscurity for the last several years. Alex González is the purest definition of the all-glove, no-stick shortstop, and he's been working inside the hollow seats of Flordia's Pro Player Stadium (I feel like I mention that every day, that's how many ex-Marlins are now on the Red Sox). Have a looksee at what he's all about.

ALEX GONZALEZ
Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1998 21 FLA NL 25 86 11 13 2 0 3 7 0 0 9 30 .151 .240 .279 24 2 0 0 1 2
1999 22 FLA NL 136 560 81 155 28 8 14 59 3 5 15 113 .277 .308 .430 241 1 3 0 12 13
2000 23 FLA NL 109 385 35 77 17 4 7 42 7 1 13 77 .200 .229 .319 123 5 2 0 2 7
2001 24 FLA NL 145 515 57 129 36 1 9 48 2 2 30 107 .250 .303 .377 194 3 3 6 10 13
2002 25 FLA NL 42 151 15 34 7 1 2 18 3 1 12 32 .225 .296 .325 49 3 2 1 4 2
2003 26 FLA NL 150 528 52 135 33 6 18 77 0 4 33 106 .256 .313 .443 234 3 5 13 13 8
2004 27 FLA NL 159 561 67 130 30 3 23 79 3 1 27 126 .232 .270 .419 235 3 4 9 4 17
2005 28 FLA NL 130 435 45 115 30 0 5 45 5 3 31 81 .264 .319 .368 160 4 3 10 5 11
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
8 Seasons 896 3221 363 788 183 23 81 375 23 17 170 672 .245 .291 .391 1260 24 22 39 51 73
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
162 Game Avg 582 66 142 33 4 15 68 4 3 31 122 .245 .291 .391 228 4 4 7 9 13
Career High 159 561 81 155 36 8 23 79 7 5 33 126 .277 .319 .443 241 5 5 13 13 17

His offensive numbers are about as atrocious as atrocious can get. 2003 and 2004 really are standout years, but only from the power standpoint. The highest OBP he's ever posted is *gag* .319. The hope is, again, that he could give the Sox a few home runs during the season, but I don't think you can really expect much more out of him offensively. Papa Jack could help his strikezone control, as could his proximity to someone like Manny, but he's really just a bitter, glove-shaped pill on an offensive powerhouse.

Gonzalez's defense has been lauded far and wide, some of it complimentary, and occasionally it's of this timbre, from Florida's Jack McKeon:
Jack McKeon has had Ozzie Smith early in his career, Garry Templeton, Barry Larkin, and Pokey Reese, among others, play shortstop for him.

''Alex González is the best I've ever had," said McKeon, insisting he's not just blowing a cloud of cigar smoke about the free agent the Red Sox just signed last week. ''Definitely the best I've ever had, defensively." *Boston.com

All of this seems to bode well for fans, who certainly tired of watching Renteria commit clutch errors all summer long. (As an aside, look for Renteria to have a solid year offensively and defensively in Atlanta. I just don't think he ever adjusted to the Boston spotlight.) Thing is, and I know I'm going to take heat for this because I'm about to use another *ahem* shallow defensive statistic (my Harball Times and Baseball Prospectus Annuals for 2006 are on their way) but Gonzalez's FPct is really not that great, being only .968 lifetime, and never having posted higher than .984 in a season. He's never won a Gold Glove. Before I get accused of being a hater, let me just say that Gonzalez is probably everything he's cracked up to be on defense. It's just interesting that for all the hype that surrounds his glove, his cursory statistics don't support it. He's got the job though, no doubts about that.

For a backup, look again to Alex Cora, who I covered in the 2B analysis. He's a capable middle infielder, also with no bat to speak of. The c