Of Some Concern...

In the week or so since my last post, the Red Sox have managed to shake off the fairy dust they wore for the first two weeks of the season, and have looked more flawed than flawless against the recent competition. A large portion of these losses can be blamed on two things: poor pitching and little offense.

We all saw Clement and Wells get lit up in their starts against the Blue Jays 2 weeks ago, and we've seen Lenny DiNardo manage to get knocked out of his start at the Rogers Center before the 4th inning. All spring the only thing people could talk about was how the Sox had a rare advantage over the rest of the league, with seven possible starters competing for rotation spots and a place as the long man in the bullpen. This of course helped everyone justify the trade of Arroyo for Wily Mo, because it cleared up some space and picked up an upside bat. Thing is, now we're hearing David Wells (who's back on the DL) talk about possibly retiring if he can't come back from this injury at the level he desires, and Lenny DiNardo is not a realistic long-term solution. Jon Papelbon shouldn't be moved from the closer's role as long as he's effective, and any potential Rocket Reentry is still at least a month away.

To add insult to injury, Wily Mo has done very little to appease the fans. There was the assist he gave to Frank Catalanotto for a 3 run jack during Wily's first appearance, there's the almost sure-bet strikeout when he steps up to the plate, though to be fair he does appear to be looking to gain patience: some of his strikeouts were on bordeline calls. And oh yea, ever seen him sprint in the outfield? Yea, me either. He loafs like it's his job, and his only compensation is a cannon for a right arm.

Still, Pena's growing pains were to be expected. What wasn't expected was the sending down of Adam Stern, our Rule 5 Energizer Bunny, to AAA for hitting work so that we could have Willie Harris' stellar .175 AAA average in the lineup to help kill rallies after Alex Gonzalez strikes out. I agree that Stern needs at bats in the minors, but the timing of the move, coming when the team has looked flat and mainly uninspired, should be questioned. Harris is gives nothing more than Stern, outside of the fact that Harris know he's a backup.

After his seemingly daring decision to choose the rookie over the veteran to help close out the 2-1 lead in Texas during the season's third game, Francona has done nothing to disprove he's one of the worst, or at the very minimum one of the streakiest (as far as creativity and intelligence goes) managers in the game. He follows lefty/righty matchups religiously and never seems to know exactly when to and not to play the JV squad. Actually, check that. If Wakefield is pitching, it's apparently a JV game. Poor guy.

Oh yea, and Josh Beckett gave up nine earned runs yesterday to the AL's best offense, while Alex Cora went 3-3 for the AL's 11th. Sweet.

Here's hoping for a little change in the wind, because there's no way all of these bad things can be blamed on my switch away from the lucky hat to the more comfortable hat.

Tampa Bay 5, Boston 1

Poor Tim Wakefield. He's pitched very well in each of his last three starts, but has received pretty poor run support. Last night's game was the perfect example. He pitched well, but Scott Kazmir pitched better, and it didn't help that Josh Bard is still learning the ropes in his new role. More passed balls, and this time and unearned run. Seriously, is there a battery more deserving of your pity than these two? I'm sure there is, but whatever. Bright spots for the Sox were few, but Dustin Mohr bagged his second round-tripper of the season in the second inning. We also saw Wily Mo Peña strike out again and, even worse, continue to loaf around in right field. We all know it's one thing to play poor defense, but it's another to jog to the ball when you fuck up. That's getting on my nerves more than his home run assists. Ah well, it was a 6-4 homestand and they're on their way to play Toronto tonight with a matchup of migrant Marlins.

Game Tonight: Beckett @ Burnett, 7:05 PM

Tampa Bay 1, Boston 9

Yet another impressive outing from Curt Schilling last night as the Sox went after the middle game in this three game series. Schilling, now 4-0 in his firt four starts for the first time in his career, again limited opponents' scoring to only 1 inning, when Joey Gathright's infield single scored Toby Hall. True to form and the article below the one you're reading right now Kevin Youkilis was a BEAST (with all capital letters deserved), going 3 for 4 with a HR to open up the game, 2 runs and 2 RBI. C'mon, are we really going to move him when Coco gets back? Adam Stern helped keep the game one-sided with another balls-to-The-Wall (literally) catch that left him face down in the warning track dirt for a few seconds longer than was comfortable for the people watching the game. Thankfully, he was alright, and is going to be healthy enough to start for Pawtucket on Saturday, as Stern was optioned to AAA after the game. It is expected that Willie Harris, hitting a whopping .161 with a .277 OBP in the minors. The argument for Stern's demotion is that he could use some serious at-bats, which is certainly true. Hopefully he'll get his hacks in at AAA and really turn into the hitter people have hoped for.

Game Tonight: Kazmir @ Wakefield, 7:05 PM.

Conventional Leadoff Hitter Be Damned!

When you think of a leadoff hitter, what do you think of ? Speed? Bat control ? Is it Scot Podsednik that pops into your head ? Maybe Johnny Damon or Brian Roberts ? Chances are that whoever that player may be, they’re on the lighter side of the player’s body spectrum, known just as much for their ability to steal bases and their part in the creation of “productive outs” as they are for just simply getting on base. Coco Crisp fits that mold well, a switch hitter capable of stealing bases when he gets on, an appropriate successor for the erstwhile number 18. But Crisp has been on the disabled list for the last 2 weeks or so, and it looks as if that’s where he will remain until the beginning of May. So who on our lead-footed Red Sox has been filling in?

Kevin Youkilis. And he’s doing a damn fine job, too.

If you’ve read any of the numerous articles put forth by individual sabermetricians and the freakily cultish Baseball Prospectus (I always imagine white robes and blinding lights behind expressionless faces) on the merits of the batting order, you have an idea why. This issue is addressed in detail within one of the essays of Baseball Between the Numbers, and with much greater quantitative authority, so I will not pretend to be any sort of expert on the math behind it. Needless to say, it stands to reason that the success of Youkilis in the leadoff spot should not come as a surprise to anyone who takes the time examine what you need from the game’s first batter.

What is the ultimate goal of a batting player? Why, to cross home plate with a run of course. But then, that is the ultimate goal. What is the first successful action that can be taken to advance towards that end? Get on base. You can’t steal a base, hit and run, much less cross home plate without first getting on base. In they eyes of the scoreboard, a walk is just efficient as a hit if it eventually produces a run, and while it may not help owners in standard fantasy leagues, a player who were to theoretically bat .000 for a season but reach base 100% of the time would be incredibly valuable. (Suspend your disbelief for a moment, this is the first time I’ve tried to pass a philosophical argument as numerically sound. At least, I think that’s what I’m doing. I could just be telling you that monkeys don’t exist as your reality because you’ve never actually seen on in person. But I digress…)

Over the last decade or so statisticians have managed to insert the On Base Percentage into the everyday baseball jargon, to the point where a failed general manager (*cough* Steve Phillips) can reference it in a SportsCenter mock press conference and be confident that the majority of viewers will comprehend. It is here, in On Base Percentage (henceforth referred to as OBP) that our phantom player and Kevin Youkilis have their value. Our player, we’ll call him Phantom, would be reaching base 100% of the time for an OBP of 1.000, meaning that every time he came to the plate, he reached base. As a result, the probability of Phantom scoring a run increases dramatically. If he chooses to he can attempt to disrupt the pitcher with a steal or remain rooted at first, but either way he increases the likelihood that a run will come from his at bat. The player behind him has a greater chance at driving him in, increasing his own individual RBI total (an indication of why RBI is also a flawed statistic: if they don’t get on in front of you, you can’t knock ‘em in.) That player becomes important to his team as a run-scorer.

Of course, you could put Phantom anywhere in your lineup I suppose, and he would still be helpful in scoring runs and leading to wins. But as pointed out in the Baseball Between the Numbers, the idea of player placement with a lineup is to maximize that lineup’s production. There are 27 outs to be made in a ballgame, divided by 9 players in a batting order that means that each batter would have exactly 3 at-bats (AB) in a perfect game. Batters #1-3 would come up in the 1st, 4th, and 7th innings, #4-6 in the 2nd, 5th, and 8th, and #7-9 in the 3rd, 6th, and 9th. Unfortunately for pitchers perfect games are as rare an event as you can get in baseball, which means that this dispersion of batters is seldom seen. Assuming that a pitcher throws a 1-hitter instead of a perfect game, or a no-hitter with a walk or HBP, what happens? Exactly. Phantom would get an extra AB, and since we know he gets on base 100% of the time that means the #2 hitter is going to get an extra AB with a chance to knock Phantom in and continue the game.

The idea put forth by these oft-criticized and frequently misunderstood stat geeks is that the player with greatest chance of getting on base should lead off because he will likely get more AB over the course of a season then, say, your number 9 hitter. The more AB he gets, the more chances a team will have to score runs and win ballgames.

This is why Kevin Youkilis is perfect for the leadoff spot in the Sox’ lineup even when Crisp returns. Youkilis is famous for his batting eye in the minors, consistently posting OBP near or above .400. Theo has been quoted as saying that Youkilis is capable of posting .400 or greater at the major league level, meaning he has incredible value to the team. It stands to reason that if you put Kevin Youkilis in front of David Ortiz and Many Ramirez for the course of a season they are going to score more runs than were someone else to lead off. He doesn’t fit the typical mold, to be sure, but he has proven that he has not only the ability to hit to all fields with line-drive power, but that he also has a very sharp batting eye that allows him to compensate for whatever his speed shortcomings may be.

When Crisp went down, anybody with knowledge of these ideas celebrated at the mention of #20 leading off for the Olde Towne Team. They knew he was going to get more AB, see more pitches, and help them score more runs than without him there, and as we’ve seen, he is more than capable of pulling his own weight in that spot. When Coco returns, Tito should keep Youkilis in the leadoff role to continue his productivity.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Youk is on my fantasy team, either.

(Oh yea, how could is Youk actually doing? How about hitting .318 with a .455 OBP… excluding tonight’s great performance.)

Playing Catch-Up

Man, oh man, oh man. You spend all winter designing a web site in hopes of creating an interesting Red Sox and baseball-related pitstop along this information superhighway of ours, you piece after piece after piece explaining your position on varied hot-button issues facing the game today, you get mail and submissions from people in places your thought only existed in stereotypical jokes about the South and Midwest, and then finally, after months of waiting, the season begins.

You get so wrapped up in watching the games themselves you forget all about it.

So maybe this isn't going to be the daily updated heaven I envisioned, but that's ok. Keep coming back for the occasional piece, and, if you'd like to submit, just shoot off an email with your contact info and a sample piece (or the one you want put up). Considering that my last update was nothing more than a photo posted during my lunch break the day after Josh Beckett's first win and Jonathan Papelbon's first save, the more help we can get, the merrier. But that's enough spouting off. What about those crazy Red Sox?

Idiots, they're not.

If you haven't been watching or have only seen the W's starting to pile up in the standings, the Red Sox of 2006 are a far cry from those that frollicked 'round the grass at the Fens from 2003-2005. This team has so far indicated that it will not hit the cover off the ball for every win, in fact it has indicated quite the opposite. The '06 Red Sox have up until this point been built on pitching and defense, with an offense that has yet to find it's *ahem* swing.

I was in the bleachers last week when Matt Clement toed up against junkballer Ted Lilly, and 8-6 loss which was far more painful than the finaly score indicated. Thirteen, count 'em, thirteen Sox batters went down by way of the K, making my scoring light years easier but my stomach perform acrobatics befitting only the most nimble of gymnasts. Still, the Sox didn't beat themselves in the field, in fact they had several solid defensive displays from a certain Mike Lowell to take some of the onus off the sputtering offense.

With the exception of a couple pitching stinkers, we've seen a different style of ball being played on Yawkey Way. Beckett and Schilling, two of the three lone 3-0 pitchers in the major leagues this year, have apparently become best friends with 2-1 ballgames, and Jonathan Papelbon, our heralded seventh starter coming out of Spring Training, has turned himself into a bona fide closer, melodramatic entrance music and all. Mark Loretta has demonstrated the amazing bat control we so rarely see, and Alex Gonzalez, for all his offensive pitfalls, has made everyone forget the overpaid, injured Renteria with jaw-dropping acrobatics.

At 9-4, the Sox are seem to be surprisingly capable of staying in most ballgames, and though they have yet to prove it there is still the potential for a very potent offense when Coco Crisp and Trot Nixon finally get back into the lineup full time. Everyone from Theo to Tito has expressed reserved optimism for the season so far, because Lord knows we've still got 149 games left to play. These Red Sox won't make you cringe with embarassment or turn off the TV to avoid watching one of those error-ridden nights that seem to crop up as the summer wears on. They'll make you sick, to be sure, like they always do. But it will be accompanied by a deep-seeded knowledge that these Sox can go with the best of them.

A Thousand Words

Sometimes BDD actually has some sweet photos:

Points for Papelbon

After the disappointing performance of Keith Foulke on Monday afternoon, the talk of the Boston media was "Will Francona bring Foulke in to protect a 1 run lead?" The answer, as we found out, is no. At least it is for now.

Last night's game against the Rangers was really interesting to watch because it featured several things we don't normally see. First, we saw a pitcher who struggled at the outset settle down and finish through 7 innings of work with only 1 run allowed. Second, we saw our Coco Crisp back up his assertion that he thinks "Triple" every time he hits a ball into the corner. Third, we saw a pitcher come out in the bottom of the ninth inning against a strong lineup and exude the sort of confidence and intensity, not to mention display the pure stuff, that is needed to emphatically shut the door on a close game.

The Red Sox don't normally win games like last night. It's far to early to have any sort of indication as to whether or not this team is going to be able to prosper in thost situations, and anybody who predicts something like that isn't going to be able to substantiate it. Still, it was an encouraging step in the right direction for both the bullpen and for Terry Francona.

Francona has been called many things, including the "worst in-game manager in baseball" according to Rotoworld, but he has never been called gutsy. His reputation is for being a manager that sticks with the established veteran, that tries to give the war horse one more crack at revival. If you want proof of this, see Kevin Millar's constant presence in the lineup in 2005. It's fairly safe to say that most of RSN was praying for one of two things when Timlin escaped the second and third jam in the bottom of the eight: Either 1.) Keith Foulke comes in and we pray to all the gods in heaven he hits his spots, or 2.) Tito trots Papelbon in and we all rest easy.

Papelbon's performance on Monday made him deserving of Francona's confidence in this sort of situation, and it was impressive to see Francona actually make the right call this early in the season. In reflecting over why he decides now to do what everyone knows he should but what may not be popular in the clubhouse, it struck me that Francona received a contract extension in training camp, something that his recent predecessors had not. He's over .500 as a Boston skipper, and now that he's got a little more job security it's likely that he feels more ownership over the club. After tying the Yankees in games played and losing the division by default, the importance of even one game stands out, since just one game not blown by Foulke in '05 would've guaranteed a division title. Maybe this is a sign that Francona has turned it over, than he can manage intelligently, and that Sox fans will be able to stop the imitations of our seemingly moronic manager.

Then again, maybe this was just the third game of the season, and maybe this means nothing at all.

This n' That: Around the MLB, Injuries

Let me start this off by saying that yesterday afternoon's game was one that left me in one of the best moods you could imagine. Starting the season off on a refreshing note--Schilling looking strong, everybody hitting, seeing Big Papi go yard--especially considering it all resulted in a 'W' for the Boston nine is a great feeling, isn't it?

One negative, which everybody seems to be mentioning: Keith Foulke looked terrible.

I don't just mean that he was "okay" and got smacked around, I mean...Foulke looked awful. There was no zip and little movement on everything he threw and he ended up giving up a few too many hard hits balls.

Is the Craig Hansen era not far away? It's certainely something that us RedSox fans will be watching over the coming months. It's a bit early, but I have a feeling that the majority of the negative press this year will go towards David Wells and Keith Foulke's way. Just a hunch.

Jimmy Rollins kept it alive last night--is this kid ever going to stop? Theres questions abou tthe legitimacy of his hitting streak since it spans two seasons--if he ends up hitting in 20 straight games to open the season, I'll give it to him. Having hitting streaks that long to both end and open a season, with a long layoff in the offseason, is impressive.

Nomar back on the Disabled List. As a fan of Nomar's (always and forever), this was disappointing news. You hafta be rooting for the guy to get his stuff back on track.

The Marlins might seriously be moving. No, seriously. This is something that's always bugged me--the team won the World Series in 1997 and in 2003. That's a successful franchise, considering it's been in the league for just over 10 years. How can this team not get the fans and local politicans on their side? If Boston won the World Series twice in six seasons...

David Ortiz called the reports that he was close to an extension over the last few days "false," and now says that sinec the season is underway, they will put talks on hold. We can't let this one get away.

Barry Bonds doubled in his first at bat back. Yawn.

Key Injuries
Injuries are an un-avoidable part of the game of baseball. It. Just. Happens. 162 games, how is anybody supposed to play at that high of a level for that long and not be a little dinged up?

A few very key parts of some rosters have begun the season on the Disabled List that are worth mentioning--if your a fan of one of these players, don't fret...It's only April, right?

The Cubs: I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Over the last few seasons, Prior and Wood have always found their ways onto my fantasy teams, and also to the Disabled List. It's becoming near-depressing, how these guys can't seem to catch a break and stay out there long enough to put together successful seasons--but when they pitch, few are better. Something that hit me only the other day is that Kerry Wood is no longer a kid. He turns 30 next year, and after seeing the kid's rookie season (during which he sported a 3.40 ERA and 233 strikeouts in 167 innings) there is no way that I would believe that Wood would only compile 57 wins over his next six seasons. What hurts the Cubs even more is that there are names like Glendon Rusch, Sean Marshall, and Jerome Williams in the running to replace these guys. Ouch.

The Indians: C.C. Sabathia's on the DL, which is not good news for a team that already took hits (namely Kevin Millwood, the AL ERA champion last season) to its rotation. If the Indians want to keep up they'll need a healthy C.C. the rest of the way.

The Giants: Armando Benitez recieved a $21 million, three year deal prior ot the 2005 season to close games out with that electric fastball in San Francisco. Last season he logged 30 innings before being placed on the DL, and is finding himself on that same DL at the opening of this season. Not exactly what they expected.

The Brewers: Milwaukee has been a popular "dark horse" pick to compete and secure a playoff spot by experts around the game of baseball. Without Ben Sheets, I doubt they will be able to pull it off. Last season, he encountered a few problems including a torn muscle in his shoulder, and this year is finding that he is still having trouble with that same shoulder. He is on the DL, but expected to be able to pitch immediately following his 15-day stint.

The Rangers: Not that I expected great things from Adam Eaton, but when your the Texas Rangers, and you go out and spend big time bucks on starting pitching, this is the last thing you want to happen. He's out for the first half of the season--though credit Texas for making a few quick trades for some depth in the rotation, acquiring Robinson Tejada.

The WhiteSox: Theres been one concern among many in baseball about this years WhiteSox: Is Bobby Jenks really ready to dominate? Can the young kid do it? After watching his Spring Training, many doubt he'll hold the closer job in Chicago for long. For that reason, the WhiteSox need all of the bullpen depth they can get. Dustin Hermanson finding more issues with his back does not help.

The Royals: I was pleased with the way Kansas City's offseason went. They acquired what seem to be talented role players like Mark Grudz, Doug Mientkiewicz, Reggie Sanders and Mark Redman. Unfortunetly, injuries are already affecting what I thought could be a very positive year for the Royals. Zack Greinke is somewhat of a mystery--he's on the 60 day DL and is back home in Florida recieving counseling for sorts of personal problems. This isn't a good thing to hear from the young kid that you were expecting to step up and become an Ace. Mike MacDougal, a fan favorite and flame throwing closer, is hurt with a strained muscle in his throwing shoulder. Not good news. Mark Redman, who was expected to provide for some durability and dependability in that rotation, is suffering from bad knees and is getting surgery.