"With All Apologies to Clark Kent...

...David Ortiz is Superman, and the Indians had no kryptonite tonight."

Pics In The Hall

The Man Behind The Game

As I walked through the halls of the museum this morning, stopping to look at the brand new exhibit on the Negro Leagues that was recently installed (and paid for by the Boston Red Sox and the Yawkey Trust -- talk about trying to make up for past transgressions), I noticed a small crowd of people milling about through the exhibit of the Women's Baseball section. Everybody had a camera to begin with, but more than the usual number were aimed in one direction, at a short, older man glancing at the walls.

Allen H. Selig, better known as "Bud", was paying a morning visit.

Just like everyone else, I walked up to him and got my ticket stub signed, but as he walked away, I thought about how he's been as a commissioner. The wild card, division restructuring, revenue sharing, the players' strike, the first skipped World Series, the tied All-Star Game, the steroid controversy, the Congressional hearings, Rafael Palmeiro's suspension and exit from the game. If you think about it, Selig has lorded over quite a few events, probably more than any commissioner since Landis.

If you've read Andrew Zimbalist's "In The Best Interests of Baseball" (and you should) you know that Selig, though "officially" commissioner for only a short time, has been the acting commissioner of the game for over 2 decades. Unlike so many of the commissioners before him, Selig has the rare ability to connect with everyone and anyone around him, even when caught off-guard in a corner of the Hall. The kids, the dads, the moms, everybody spoke with him, and he entertained every one with a smile. Not a fake "You're the reason I play the game" smile, but the same smile you see when those same fans meet their favorite player.

You see, Selig is, as I've learned, a fan. He grew up a fan, he will likely die a fan. His fanaticism has both helped and hindered him during his career, but in the end, I believe he will be regarded as one of the more successful men to have ever held the title of "Commissioner of Baseball."

He can just as easily be criticized as he can be lauded for all he's done, and Lord knows I'm not a Selig homer.

But for today, he's alright in my book.

On Baseball's Most Uncertain Weekend, History Already Made

As the rumors of player transactions bounced from ear to ear in the world of Major League Baseball, hundreds of fans, historians, and families meandered down Main Street in the Mecca of our national pasttime, Cooperstown, New York. While the legend of baseball's creation has been proven to be nothing more than a myth, so much of the sport traces it's roots here, to 25 Main Street. Behind an unimposing brick façade decades of dirt and dust, pine tar, print, and leather make their home, and generations of faithful come to pay homage.

If you've never been to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, you don't know what it's like to step back in time. Drive through upper New York on rather unspectacular highways, find your way down the offramp from route 88, and turn left into the winding backroads of a quieter place. Farmhouses and small corner stores are nestled into small clearings that, eventually, will lead you down a hill and into a picture book neighborhood.

The main drag in town is, fittingly, Main Street. Old storefronts lined with baseball memoribilia, folding tables and accompanying chairs, children staring deer-eyed at the window glass and display cases, fathers unsure of just how exactly to mitigate the behavior of both their outer adult and inner child, all are here. The greatest players in the game sit in back rooms and on card chairs, waiting to sign (albeit for a price) any item you desire. The history of the game, both present (in the players) and past (in the books, the photos, and the equipment) is nowhere so strong as here, in Cooperstown.

Ever wonder what Hank Aaron's locker looked like? What about the home plate of Ebbets Field? Collect baseball cards? The ones at home in your plastic card sheets look nothing like the ones suspended behind the glass here. Though not all of the readers for this site are Red Sox fans, but for that majority that is, why not take a look at the glove Orlando Cabrera used to spark the lackluster defense of the 2004 World Series Team? Keith Foulke's shoes? They're here, too. And somewhere, Doug Mientkiewicz's college fund hides from critics amidst far more worthy artifacts.

Whatever your age, whatever your affiliation, Cooperstown is worth the trip. Take your wife, take your kids, take your best friends. Go alone. It doesn't matter how, or even when, for that matter. All that matters is that you come, and breathe in the air of the generations that have passed.

Fishing For Contention: A Seattle Mariners Post

The last two years, the Seattle Mariners have been out of the race by about 8pm on Opening Day. The nice weather of June hits just in time for Safeco Field to act as a cheap tanning area, with music playing occasionally in the background and the occasional loudspeaker voice saying odd things like, "Now batting, Quinten McCracken..." By the 4th of July the only fireworks enjoyed at Safeco were the home runs hit off Gil Meche by the Red Sox or the Yankees. After the last two seasons, when someone asked how many games back the Mariners were in the AL West, they would not have been surprised to hear the answer, "All of them."

Being from the good side of Connecticut, and growing up a Red Sox fan, I could understand the woe the team was feeling, and was impressed by the number of fans that DID still go to the park, even if it was to see Roy Halladay pitch a one hitter. But I couldn't get into it. The Mariners of the last three years just didn't do it for me-- they didn't act like they loved baseball. They weren't exciting to watch as a whole, and there was no real energy that might have been converted into a winning streak. And then Felix Hernandez arrived.

At the end of last season, when Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre were hitting about 1 percentage point per million of their contracts, 19 year old Felix Hernandez stepped in and electrified baseball. His stellar debut didn't help the Mariners back into contention, but it did ignite a feeling of possibility and excitement that Seattle didn't seem to have had in a long time. Which made this year possible.

Baseball goes in cycles, we know this. Look at the Tigers and what they've done, the Rangers and what they've done, or the Marlins and what they've done. And then there's the Royals...well, I can only assume that the Royals' cycle of failure and success is like the orbit of Pluto, so while it will happen, it's still a long way coming. This season, however, the Seattle Mariners are an exciting, young team that is fighting in the AL West. Felix Hernandez hasn't pitched as everyone had hoped, but at 20, that's alright. Young players have stepped up in the tradition of Felix. Willie Bloomquist, Jeremy Reed, Yuniesky Betancourt, Kenji Johjima, and second string All-Star Jose Lopez (J-Lo) have all sizzled on the field this year. Jose Lopez is 22 years old and leads the team in Runs and RBI's. Yuniesky Betancourt is going to be one heluva ballplayer, and has played stellar defense to accompany his hitting-- oh, and he's 18 for his last 40 as of today. Johjima has stepped up filled the catcher void which has plagued the Mariners since Dan Wilson stopped playing everyday. People have blamed him for Felix's problems, saying he can't call a major league game, but the same problems have plagued Felix when Renee Rivera is behind the plate-- not to mention other pitchers such as Gil Meche and the entire Mariner bullpen have been fantastic this year with Johjima catching them. The Mariners are playing exciting baseball-- they're playing like they love to play, and that's fun baseball to watch.

So what does this mean for the Mariners? For baseball? It means that it's July 28th and the Mariners are 3.5 games behind Oakland in the division and that's without Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, or Jarrod Washburn doing much of anything. Sure, they're in last place, and sure the AL West of this year has become the NL West of last year (first place is .520) but it's light-years ahead of where that decimal point was in the past. It means that there's another contender in the mix, that with a few new ingredients (say, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and the release of Carl-a-saurus Rex aka Carl Everett) and a few key hits or pitches, the Mariners could take down Oakland, the Angels, and the Rangers and give us a race worth watching in the west.

-Witz-

A Player's Manager

There has been a lot of discussiong this morning about the way it appeared Tito "mailed it in" yesterday against the A's. Resting Varitek, sitting Gonzalez, and calling in Van Buren all appeared (in the minds of some fans) to indicate no real desire to grab this, the last game of the road trip, by the throat. As a result, we lost a game in the standings to the Yankees, and now come home to face the warming Angels tomorrow night.

Here's the fact of the matter: you can't accuse Francona of throwing in the towel. Sure, they have a day off today, but it's hard to argue that consecutive rest days for Varitek's knees aren't going to pay dividends in September. Van Buren pitcher reasonably well, and Cora just did his thing. We lost a game, yea, but remember:

We're still in first place.

Gonzalez A-Go-Go

Lugo. Julio Lugo. He's the new buzzword for trade rumors involving the Red Sox, and there's a contingent of fans salivating at picking up his Devil Ray. The response from the larger group of fans is: "Why?", and it's a good question. In my opinion, there is no reason that the Red Sox should pursue a trade to land them Lugo, and here's why.

The biggest argument in favor of Lugo coming to Boston is his offense. At the moment, Gonzalez is hitting well above his career AVG (.276 to .244) and is currently riding a career-high OBP (.320 to .294). Compare these numbers to Lugo, who's currently hitting .310/.374 (.279/.343 career), and to boot has four more home runs, four fewer strikeouts, and six more walks on the season.

We all knew coming into the season that Gonzo was going to be an offensive liability, but his defensive upside was seen as more than enough to counter this dead weight on the lineup. He started the season struggling, showing everyone that he was really good at striking out or flying out with runners on base when it was time for the bottom part of the lineup to produce. Funny thing is, though, that he's been able to turn it around dramatically over the last month or so. Instead of batting around .2000, he's pulled his AVG closer to .300. There are a number of possible reasons that help explain this upswing. First, there's the fact that he's finally hitting in a lineup with some punch to it, a lineup with so many above-average offensive players that there is little to no pressure on him at the plate (individual situations excluded). Second, there's Papa Jack, a hitting coach who has a proven track record off fixing the swings of numerous players, and the poster boy for his successes as a coach is none other than David Ortiz, who no longer gets tied up inside the same way he did in Minnesota, and just happens to be leading the majors in home runs and RBI. Whatever the reason, Alex is producing more than we had reason to expect. Yes, Lugo is an offensive upgrade, but not a huge one.

Defensively there have been numerous discussions concerning the fact that Gonzalez doesn't live up to the hype when under the scrutinizing eye of the ever-evolving defensive metrics: his range isn't great, and he's not the best turner of double-plays. His only plus skill? Soft hands. Lugo's defensive skills are considered to be at least on par or slightly better (especially where range is concerned).

Well, I don't buy it.

Somehow, soft hands has become a marginal tool for rating a defender. How quickly we can forget that Edgar Renteria, just one season ago, got to balls that he had no right to reach, but still miffed 30 times on the season. We all remember Nomar's fantastic off-balance tosses from the hole after his lunging stabs, but what about all the routine balls he kicked around? Gonzo's hands must not be underrated. Alone, his range may be surpassed by other shortstops, but alongside Mike Lowell, the holes on his sides become smaller. His arm is good, and his footwork and acrobatics are nothing short of dance on the infield dirt.

Don't forget that Gonzalez is also a commanding leader on the infield, taking charge when he needs to but knowing how to support his teammates when they're better positioned to make the play. He and Mike Lowell don't talk because they don't need to: they're telepathically linked. Close to seven years side by side in Miami have created and strengthened the type of on-field bond that is almost unheard of in the game today. Were Lugo to come over and displace Gonzalez, there would be unquestionably an adjustment period, and no matter how small that period might be it would still hamstring the best defense in the majors when it's patchwork pitching staff doesn't have that luxury.

This relationship and leadership between Gonzalez and Lowell comes into play not only this year, but next year as well. It is likely that Mark Loretta will not be retained for the 2007 campaign, and that 2004 draftee and current PawSox Dustin Pedroia will be up with the Big Club. Who better to teach the new kid the ropes than, in my mind, the best defensive left side in baseball?

Sure, Lugo could hit a few more dongs and work a few more walks, but Gonzalez's value to the 2006 Red Sox goes beyond his bat, and even manages to go beyond his glove. Breaking up that left side would be like DePodesta breaking up the best defensive middle infield (Izturis/Cora) and inserting Lumberjack Jeff Kent at second because of his bat. How did that work?

But of course, you didn't need me to tell you any of these things, did you? You've watched the games, you've seen the plays. The numbers can't cover your eyes completely, and they can't represent the significance of turning the double play with the bases loaded, one out and a one run lead in the bottom of the sixth inning and with the four-hole hitter at the plate.

I love the numbers when they're appropriate, but do me a favor.

Trust your eyes on this one.

Center Fielder Falling Down, Falling Down...

As if it weren't bad enough that he's only 5 for his last 45 at-bats, now the newest - sorry, fastest - member of Red Sox Nation has decided to practice for his USA Soccer tryout while in the middle of Sox games. Ok, ok. I'm definitely being a little too harsh. I really do feel sorry for the guy, so sorry, in fact, that I traded away Brad Wilkerson for him in my fantasy league... a Wilkerson who, even while slumping, is worth more than our local commercial darling. The Soxblogosphere is filled with two people: the optimists who think he'll turn it around eventually (find me there), and the naysayers who think this is just karma teaching the front office a lesson for failing to go the extra mile for Johnny Damon. Neither side is really right, in my opinion because, as usual, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle.

First of all, let's look at his track record. Anyone can look up his lines at Baseball Reference, so lets just talk about them instead of simply staring. He has upward-trending categories are AVG, HR, Ks, BB OBP, SLG, and ISO, so his dropoffs this year seem to be uncharacteristic of a very young, above-average outfielder, leading one to, at the very minimum, infer that something just isn't right. It is very unlikely that his extended slump is indication of a downward trend in his career, but rather that it's the result of some other factor. So what could it be?

After a relatively hot start (8 for 22, .333 AVG, 2 SB, 6 RBI), he broke his hand sliding headfirst into third in the final game at Baltimore of the opening road trip. After that, he didn't resurface until May 28, and he's been anything but hot since. A broken finger is nothing to laugh at when you make your living swinging a giant piece of wood at a ball, but by all accounts Crisp took his rehab very cautiously, returning only when he felt the most ready. For a while, it was feasible that he was simply going through his April later than everyone else, but now that we're into the end of July, that argument won't hold water. And now we're seeing more than just a lack of success at the plate, but a lack of concentration or confidence in the field as well.

The way Crisp has been dancing in center field leads me to believe that there's something else there. My guess? The pressure. Crisp has yet to be demonized by the Knights of the Keyboard, and he's still a likeable-enough character to avoid the worst kind of booing from the peanut gallery during home games, but everyone knows he's pressing. When Damon was traded and we acquired Crisp, the majority of journalists snapped him up as the Next Big Thing for the Sox OF. All of his stats pointed in the right direction, and he had yet to hit his prime, being only 26. He was exactly the sort of player the Sox wanted to build around. All the attention showered on him catapulted him out of the gate, but his injury brought his momentum to a screeching halt. Thing is, his media attention didn't decrease with his injury. In fact, it increased. He signed a 3 year extension and featured in several commercials for the Sox.

That's the worst possible combination for a Sox player when he's not producing. In my opinion, it's all this media pressure to perform to such a high level that's causing Coco to press on the field. The slump hasn't broken, and no amount of clichés has helped him string the hits together. We're now seeing what looks like a slow deterioration in Crisp's focus, something he's going to need to regain with (maybe) some time off. The game against Texas on the scheduled off-day didn't help, but we're not too far removed from the All-Star Break, so it shouldn't matter that much.

Then again, this could simply be a case of freak occurrences. Either way, let's hope Crisp recovers.

Sox Extend Themselves

Coming off a disappointing home series against Oakland, the Sox managed to sweep the Royals despite nonexistant offense for two of the three games. On Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, the Sox won back to back 1-0 games in the Fens for the first time since 1916. Josh Beckett, with Doug Mirabelli as his battery mate, pitched a masterful game against a poor Kansas City offense. Still, he earned the win without allowing a home run, and managed to keep the batters off-balance by mixing in his curveball and changeup with his fastball.

Immediately after the game, Francona mentioned that he pitched so well that Theo gave him a three-year contract extension. Nobody took him serious... except, he was. Beckett will be with the Sox through 2009 for roughly $10 million per year, and there is a club option that automatically kicks in for 2010 should Beckett start a specific number of games in '08 or '09.

Without a doubt, this extension caught everyone in New England off guard, something that has been happening more and more in this, The Second Reign of Theo. We've all heard about the trouble that was created by all the leaks to the media, and as he promised, Theo has zipped the mouths of most organization officials. It's created an atmosphere of control in what used to be a three-ring circus. The professionalism of the public faces of the Red Sox has increased exponentially over the shenanigans of 2003-2005, and given recent revelations in Seth Mnookin's new book, this is the road management wanted to take (and by management, I mean Theo).

Ortiz, Crisp, and Beckett all signed extensions, and in my opinion they were all good deals for both the player and the team. Never more than 3 years and an option or so, the deals reflect intent on both sides to exist on common ground. All of these in-season signings have been handled very well, almost as if the front office learned it's lesson, acknowledging that players can perceive hesitation to even discuss contract status during the season.

While Beckett has been nowhere near the lights-out ace we hoped for upon his acquisition, he has pitched well. Most of the frustration directed at him seems to be more directed at the fact that he has not pitched efficiently, and indeed, sometimes not pitched at all, just thrown. His 27 HR allowed leads the majors, and his fastball has become a crutch during clutch situations. Still, Beckett is averaging close to 8 K's per game, and his WHIP is 1.29 (and a BABIP of .263), meaning he's doing a decent job (and being helped by the best Sox defense in years). Despite visible struggles adapting to the American League, Beckett is only 26 years old and screams "upside". Signing him makes complete sense, as it locks him up for the first 2 years of free agency at a price likely to be significantly below what he would command on the open market.

This is a signing RSN should be excited about.

A Revoltin' Development

One out of four ain't bad, right? Wrong. There's really nothing like losing 3 games (two of which were blowouts) to the worst offense in the American League. A tough extra-inning loss, the implosion of our young ace in waiting, and an inning-long brain fart from the stopgap starter all helped hack and slash the Sox' lead in the AL East to a mere 1/2 game. So, who's up next? The Kansas City Royals.

Normally, I feel like most of us would clap our hands and rub them together excitedly about the prospect of welcoming Baseball's Joke Franchise into the Fens for the 3 game series, but with the way the Sox have been playing it's difficult to maintain that optimism unabated.
The bats seem to have finally his the skids in this last series, which really is an unfortunate development.

So what are our silver linings? Well, there are two. First, David Wells may be able to begin minor league rehab starts sometime within the next two weeks, and second, Wily Mo Peña will likely be rejoining the club tomorrow. And me with a softball doubleheader. Sheesh.

On The Hill

The Red Sox are riding a three game losing streak, and they manner in which they have coughed up the L's speaks volumes about the trouble with the Boston pitching: it's inconsistent. The only starter that has been truly dominant has been Curt Schilling, returning to the form we saw in 2004, and for relievers, Jonathan Papelbon has been absolutely lights-out all season, though lately we've seen some balls start to get hit a litte harder. For the sake of, (ahem) brevity, I'll be short on pitchers on the DL. So if you're looking for something interesting about Clement, Wells, or Foulke, you'll have to look elsewhere.

As before, I'll be using the statistics available at RedSoxStats.com and MLB.com to complete this review. Great sites, very helpful, check them out.

STARTERS

1. Curt Schilling: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Ideally, we hoped to get our ace back, something that was lacking from the 2005 team. Realistically, we just hoped to get an effective pitcher who can eat innings and provide guidance to the rest of the staff. WHAT WE GOT: Our wildest dreams. Almost. He's posted a 11-3 win-loss record, but in all fairness, it should be better. Unfortunately, Schilling has fallen victim to the Curse of the Quiet Bats and the Hex of the Ancient Bullpen, which will be discussed a bit more later. He's also had trouble with home runs on the road, having served up 19 long balls for opposing hitters. Still, he's been able to control the pace of the majority of his starts and command the respect his presence should demand. His strikeout numbers are still pretty solid (124) and his walks are very low (16), but his OBA is pushing .300. as is his BABIP, meaning that when they're hitting him, they're really hitting him hard. His fly ball (FB) ratio has started to climb, which is certainly something to be worried about considering he lives off the fastball, but all in all, Schilling has been everything we could have hoped for.

2. Tim Wakefield: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: An innnings-eating, knuckleball-tossing veteran who eats innings and picks up his share of wins without much fanfare. WHAT WE GOT: Exactly what we wanted... but no run support. Wakefield's still under .500 with his record, but that's mostly because the sox were averaging just under 3 runs/game for most of his starts. Add to that the fact that Josh Bard was just terrible during his first four starts, and we see Wake as probably one of the biggest victim of circumstance on the staff.

3. Josh Beckett: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: The ace of the 2003 World Series. WHAT WE GOT: A batting-cage pitching machine with an 11-5 record. Beckett has given up 27, 27 home runs in his 19 starts, and somehow still hasn't caught on to the fact that AL hitters can really turn around a fastball. His solution to his inconsistency has, for some bizarre reason, been to throw even more fastballs. His ERA has swollen to a disappointing 5.13, and his whip is somehwere around 1.3. Beckett needs to learn the breaking ball and he needs to put his pride aside. We all know he would give his right arm for the team, but will he give the fastball?

4. Jon Lester: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: That's an interesting question. I guess we really just wanted a starter who wasn't Jason Johnson, and we seem to have gotten him. We also wanted to see the crown jewel of the Sox farm system come up for his debut. WHAT WE GOT: A pitcher with amazing poise, average stuff, and a lot of confidence. He's pulled 4 wins out of a hat that includes a 1.61 WHIP. Somehow, Lester has been able to load the bases on countless occasions against both the best and worst lineups in the majors, and still manage to get out of jams. His cutter is apparently his pitch of choice, and he throws it with regularity. His presence is refreshing, and although he will certainly need to develop his talents, he's got a great head on his shoulders and a major-league demeanor.

5. Matt Clement (DL) // David Wells (DL) // Jason Johnson (Oblivion) // Kyle Snyder // Lenny DiNardo (DL): WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Anything. WHAT WE GOT: A little of this, a little of that. The struggles of Matt Clement are well documented on this site, David Wells has barely pitched during the 2006 campaign, and both are on the disabled list, so they're not doing a whole lot are they? When Clement was healthy, he was little better than Johnson, despite a much higher salary and long-term deal. DiNardo wasn't very good, but he didn't make me want to slit my wrists either, though maybe that had more to do with the fact that I had zero expectations for him. The brightest spot in all of this is Kyle Snyder, who pitcher once against the Nationals for a win and was then promptly shipped to Pawtucket for some more seasoning. He will, in fact, be coming up for today's game against the A's, facing a lineup more intimidating than Washington.

RELIEVERS:

The largest problem with the bullpen thus far had been overreliance on the older relievers Tavarez and Seanez. However, at some point in the middle of June Terry Francona came out and said publicly that he was finally going to do what the citizens of the blogosphere so yearned for: he was going to start leaning more heavily on his younger arms, and that's exactly what he did. And that was how the Hex of the Ancient Bullpen was (mostly) cast aside.

1. Julian Tavarez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: The reliever who posted a 2.38 ERA in St. Louis during 2004. WHAT WE GOT: More streaks than my car window. Tavarez has shown that he's absolutely capable of shutting down offenses for several innings at a time (he was a starting pitcher for the Dominican Republic during the Carribbean Series), but he's also shown that he'll suddenly lose the ability to stay out of the middle of the strike zone, evidenced by his 1.51 WHIP. Only thing is, he lacks Lester's ability to get out of the jams he gets into. As of late, his usefulness has been as the mopup guy, as he came out of the 'pen two nights ago to save his compadres from burnout.

2. Rudy Seanez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: I guess everyone else was hoping for the pitcher that was dominant with the Padres last year, but I was honestly not hoping for much. WHAT WE GOT: I won. Seanez has been terrible. His ERA is close to 5 and his WHIP is over 1.6. His fastball doesn't use enough gas to embarass opposing batters and his breaking ball hasn't been consistent enough to throw late in counts. He's coughed up a lot of runs in crucial situations, and he's so far in Francona's doghouse that he didn't take the hill until the 19th, that's right, the 19th, inning in the South Side Marathon. All he really has going for him is that he seems like a nice guy who feels bad about sucking it up. That really isn't much, though.

3. Mike Timlin: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: The same guy who anchored the pen in 2004 and 2005. WHAT WE GOT: Reliability, but the need for other pitches. I would use Timlin as the posterboy for what the World Baseball Classic can do to a player who isn't prepared correctly to throw in pressure situations. I think he pushed too hard too early, and the result was a DL stint and the necessity of other, more rarely used off-speed pitches. Regardless, I don't get too worried when he takes the hill late.

4. Manny Delcarmen: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Our hometown hero. WHAT WE GOT: What we wanted. Delcarmen was originally being used so infrequently he could've been referred to as the Human Irregular Stream, but when Tito made his announcement, Delcarmen found himself getting the call. And the funny thing is, he's responded. He's had to make up for early outings where he coughed up runs, but he's learning how to throw his curveball for strikes and how, when it comes off of his mid-90's fastball, it makes hitters look silly. He could be good for several years.

5. Craig Hansen: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: A flamethrowing rookie with "Future Elite Closer" on his back over his number. WHAT WE GOT: A flamethrower learning the ropes. Hansen looks to, and probably will, be very good for some time, but he's still only one year out of St. John's. It's inappropriate to expect that he would be lights-out with less than one full year of service in the minors. As he spends more time here, I believe we'll see him improve significantly.

6. Javier Lopez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: A younger Mike Myers. WHAT WE GOT: A younger Mike Myers. Sit and stew on that for a while. You'll find you won't get too far.

7. Jonathan Papelbon: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: An above-average rookie starting pitch with the potential to lead the rotation into the next several seasons. WHAT WE GOT: A closer best summed up in the following statement: "Through his first 29 outings, he had posted a ridiculous ERA of 0.30. That's not an ERA; that's a blood-alcohol level at spring break. What's next? World peace?" He's been absolutely filthy all year long, exhibiting not only the stuff but the mental makeup to be an elite closer for at least this season. (I'm pretty sure he's batshit crazy... This guy talks about his Scrabble skillz as if he were the leading dunk king on the AND1 Tour.) His long term projection looks to be as a starter, but I know I for one am certainly glad he's as good as he is. (Doesn't hurt that he only cost me $6 in my Roto Auction.)

8. Keith Foukle (DL): WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Better than 2005, close to 2004. WHAT WE GOT: A pitcher on the mend, but one who is definitely on his way to recovery. A changeup that looked flat in the first part of the season began to really dip in the zone as he racked up the appearances. He's still trying to make his way back to the bullpen, and it will be interesting to see how he fits in with the general success of the younger relievers. (I could see Seanez getting stashed in a trash can somewhere...)

Following the leads of Schilling and Papelbon, the Sox' pitching in 2006 has been better than bad but not quite as good as it could (and should) be. I'm still holding out hope that Beckett wil learn to make the necessary adjustments to succeed in this league, but even if he doesn't, I expect him to be great should we make the postseason.

First Half Awards

With the three-day distraction also known as the All-Star Break almost over, it's time to get back into the full-swing baseball schedule. But before we do that, there is plenty of baseball from the first half to look back on.

A.J.'s First Half Awards

AL MVP
David Ortiz, DH, Boston RedSox- Nobody means more to his team than Big Papi. There are plenty of websites proclaiming Jermaine Dye or Jim Thome as MVP--but it rarely if ever works if your team has two legitimate MVP canidates. The writers may not be able to decide who is more valuable (Dye or Thome), and split fairly evenly...giving Big Papi enough space to finally lock up his MVP.

NL MVP
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, L.A. Dodgers- The popular, if not unanimous choice, is Albert Pujols. It is, however, my opinion that the Cardinals are on the verge of putting it all together (or the Reds are about to fall apart...), meaning that there are not likely to be very many meaningful games in St. Louis in September. This is also the case with David Wright. The media attention will all be focused on the major races...and the NL West should be a race. I may be wrong, and I may just love to root for the underdog, but could Nomar's bat be the difference in the NL West in September? If it is, and the Dodgers win, look out. Vladimir Guerrero got hot at the right time in 2004 and captured his AL MVP that way.

AL Cy Young
Johan Santana, LHP, Minnesota Twins- Alright, I'll admit it. My gut, heart, head, EVERYTHING says Francsico Liriano should win. So why pick Johan? I just can't believe that Liriano is going to be preforming at this level the rest of the way. Something HAS to happen...second time around the league, maybe he has some trouble? Maybe he runs out of gas at the end of a long year (even though they kept him in the bullpen to start the year to keep this from being an issue)? I can't just hand it to the rookie. By now, it should be known that the media is in love with Johan Santana and if he preforms the way he has been (leading the league in strikeouts with a 2.95 ERA) he has to be the favorite.

NL Cy Young
Jason Schmidt, RHP, San Francisco Giants- The popular choice is Brandon Webb. Both Webb (2.65) and Schmidt (2.78) are preforming at high levels right now--but who is more likely to "give?" I say Webb. Webb's heavy groundball style is more prone to being exposed than Schmidt's power. Granted, Jason is no longer the K-artist he once was...he still stands a better chance of avoiding a big slump that would damage his numbers. Bronson Arroyo, a personal favorite, is left out of this conversation beacuse it appears that he is beginning to slow (his last few starts have been rough--seeing his ERA ride from 2.31 to 3.12) perhaps because of the league catching on to his style and pitches.

AL Rookie of the Year
Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota Twins- He has been simply dominant. Even with him having a few rough starts down the stretch, it's not hard to imagine him finishing as one of the top five starting pitchers in the American League. While I feel that Johan will still capture the Cy, Francisco can not be denied of the Rookie of the Year.

NL Rookie of the Year
Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida Marlins- Everybody in America loves the underdog. For a Rule V guy to go from going to camp unsure of having a spot on a major league roster to the All-Star game is impressive. He ranks second in the majors only to Chase Utley in OPS as a second baseman.

AL Comeback Player of the Year
Jim Thome, DH, Chicago WhiteSox- Is there any question? The guy went from having an injury plagued year in which he hit .207-7-30 in 59 games to having 30 home runs (along with a .298 average, and 77 RBI) by the All-Star break. He could win this award without going yard one more time this year.

NL Comeback Player of the Year
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, L.A. Dodgers- I don't think I need to go over the Nomar Garciaparra story. The guys battled back from all sorts of doubt and injuries and issues to being one of the top offensive players in Major League Baseball. He has logged a .358 average to date...just like the Nomar of old!

AL Manager of the Year
Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers- Sure, the Tigers have some outstanding young talent--including some of the best young arms in the game--but Leyland's attitude and personality has helped blend this primarily veteran club with the young talents that they have and create the best team in baseball. Sure, I thought the Tigers would be solid...but who saw this coming?

NL Manager of the Year
Joe Girardi, Florida Marlins- It appears that the Marlins are actually going to AVOID 100 losses this year. If you had told me that they would avoid 100 losses at the beginning of the year, I'd have called you crazy. Good job by Joe not only in winning some games but it appears that his influence on these young guys has made a majorly positive impact.

Punch AJ. No, Seriously. Punch Him.

That's it. That's my post. More on the All-Star Game later.

In The Field, At The Plate

As teams across the major leagues walk out under the lights for what is the first game of the 2006 baseball season, let's take a look at what the Sox have actually done on the field and at the plate during the first 81. In case you didn't know, the Sox are 3 games in front of the second place Yankees in the American League East, an indicator of no small amount of success, but by no means an indication of stability. With the exception of the 16-2 run against the National League in Interleague competition, the Sox have been hit or miss all year. But let's go and look at the Olde Towne Team on a player by player basis, and see if we can't determine just what they're all about. Special thanks to RedSoxStats.com, Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com for the use of their stats.

Numbers waiting to be crunched: Check out RedSoxStats.com for where I got my numbers, specifically.


o. David Ortiz: I'm going to skip the formalities here. This guy is, as Trup so eloquently said, Superman. He's already had 3 game-winning hits at home, and despite the troubles the Maddon Shift has given him, the power numbers are still there. A contract extension assured that Papi will be in the Fens for some time to come.

1. Jason Varitek: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: In all honesty, Tek's value to educated Sox fans comes in his ability to instill confidence in the pitching staff and call a game. Any offensive output he is able to give in additiong to the most average of numbers is pure gravy. WHAT WE GOT: The power he showed between 2003 and 2005 really seemed to be more of an abnormality than anything. He's lived up to our expectations behind the dish, but he's really struggled with the stick. Whether it's because of the World Baseball Classic or simply the wear and tear of a career in progress, the Tek we see is the Tek that we typically watch in September and October, swinging through fastballs of no great velocity right down Broadway. Still, with all the work he's put in with the pitching staff, bringing along the young guns in the rotation and the 'pen, not to mention trying to keep headcases like Matt Clement and Jason Johnson in one piece, we've got all we need. Still, a little extra would be kinda nice.

2. Kevin Youkilis: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Somebody who wasn't Kevin Millar, which is to say, someone who can catch a baseball, do more than hit long foul balls into the left field stands, and maybe play a game without shooting his mouth off. WHAT WE GOT: That, and more. Youkilis is hitting .307, with a .413 on-base and .486 SLG. He's shown that he has the ability to hit the ball to all fields, to sit on the breaking ball, and have flashes of power potential. All of this comes in addition to living up to the hype of having a great batting eye and sense of the strike zone (50 BBs in 296 AB). Defensively, Youkilis has gone to great lengths to make himself into a true ballplayer. He's able to make the awkward stretches and seems to maybe have learned a thing or two from Doug Mientkiewicz about guarding the line. With the loss of Johnny Damon, Youkilis' ability to get on base (and Terry Francona's oh-so-true belief that he belongs at the top of the lineup) has contributed to this kid's astounding success.

3. Mark Loretta: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: You're going to notice a trend in these examinations, that's for sure. We needed someone who wasn't a strikeout king, and someone who would show at least medium range and turn the double play. WHAT WE GOT: Loretta's reputation was for bat control and solid play in the field, and that's what we've gotten. He slumped a bit towards the beginning, but has maintained enough consistency to bat .300 and earn himself a starting berth at the All-Star Game in Pittsburgh. He's basically been a small improvement over Tony Graffanino, and his attitude has contributed to the view of the Sox clubhouse as the home of professionals.

4. Alex Gonzalez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Anything but Rent-a-Wreck. WHAT WE GOT: Words can't even express. We'd all heard the hype, read the reviews, and looked at Gonzalez's signing as a stopgap measure between 2006 and Dustin Pedroia or Jed Lowrie's assumption of the role. We really had no idea that the hype was true. In all my time as a baseball fan I have never seen a shortstop, or an infielder for that matter, play with the natural instincts and fluidity of Gonzo. This man has made the most difficult plays look like water ballet, and even his offensive struggles have been overlooked by the harshest of the Fenway Faithful. His offense at the beginning of the year was every bit as terrible as his defense was amazing, but somehow he's managed to work a little bit on his stick, to the point where he's now hitting .269. This guy, my friends, is good.

5. Mike Lowell: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: A good glove at the hot corner and maybe a resurgent bat after what appeared to be an off-year offensively. WHAT WE GOT: Exactly what we wanted. Lowell, like Gonzalez and Loretta, is the consumate professional. He plays a mean third base and, in bizarre fashion, has found the AL pitching to be to his liking. With a steady diet of breaking balls, Mike Lowell has turned the left field line into a shooting gallery, placing himself among the leaders in the AL for doubles. Never mind his $9 million contract, he's probably been the best part of the deal with Florida.

6. Manny Ramirez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Manny to be Manny. WHAT WE GOT: Manny, and a quiet what at that. No complaints and no zany antics, Manny has just decided to produce and ignore the press. A great idea if you ask me.

7. Coco Crisp: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Speed, above-average defense, some power, and decent on-base skills. Oh yea, and a new media darling. WHAT WE GOT: Coco appeared to be well on his way to doing what he was supposed to at the start of the season, lighting up opposing pitchers, stealing bags, and flashing some serious leather as early as the first game of the season. Unfortunately, a broken finger suffered in the final game of the opening road trip sidelined number 10 for a good chunk of time, delaying his Fenway debut until late May. Still, despite the injury, the front office felt good enough to lock Crisp up for the next three years as the everyday center fielder with a 3 year, $15 million deal. Since that deal and since his return, Crisp has been crammed down the throats of Sox fans on TV and radio, and has simultaneously struggled at the plate, posting .267/.318/.373 with only a handful of steals. If you take overexposure in the media, add a dash of offensive pressing, and just a pinch of the twitchiest plate habits this side of Nomar (whose twitches were at least graceful) and you get a player who is not in the best of places with the fans right now. I have no doubt that he'll eventually figure himself out and begin to hit again, but for the moment we're not really seeing the promised production out of this Damon replacement. Sure, we all feel bad for the Sox, but what about the fantasy owners who overpaid?

8. Trot Nixon: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Health, health, and more health. Trot is beloved by The Nation both because of his production, work ethic, and loyalty to the organization. If only he could stay healthy. WHAT WE GOT: It appears that after his power surge in 2003, Trot has decided that he's more help to the club by simply getting on, getting over, and getting in. The drop in power has been replaced by a .332 BA and a .437 OBP. Francona's been putting him against lefties more often than before, both because Trot's holding the hot hand and because the right-handed platoon options post-Wily Mo have not been stellar.

9. The Bench: I think my wrists are about to start bleeding so I'll keep this little bit short. The bench, so far, has been...well...OK. I guess.
i. Wily Mo Peña: Wily Mo really struggled in the beginning and then turned it around until he went on the DL to have his hammate bone with a line of .321/.370/.482. He's currently on rehab assignment in the minors, and his right-handed caveman stick will be much appreciated when he gets back.
ii. Alex Cora: This guy is seriously Captain Utility. He's a great defender, a heads-up ballplayer in general, and a left-handed bat all rolled into one. His biggest contribution, outside of his versatility, is his .391 OBP. Surprising, isn't it?
iii. Gabe Kapler: Gosh, we sure did miss this guy didn't we? He's been pretty solid as of late, returning from the leg injury he suffered mid-2005 in Toronto. And a 1.000 OPS? Who knew?
Rapid Fire:
iv. Willie Harris: He's fast, that's about it.
v. Doug Mirabelli: He's older, and can't swing it too well any more, but he can catch the knuckleball, and that's a valuable skill.
vi. Dustan Mohr: Flash in the pan.
vii. J.T. Snow: Who?

There's a lot to be said about the 2006 Sox, and it's obvious that they've found a pretty solid level of success even with the high offseason turnover. The team is still an offensive force to be reckoned with, but there is undoubtedly a newfound focus on the defensive side of the ball. A run taken away is sometimes more important than a run scored, and with the Sox leading the majors in fielding, it's a sight to behold.

Well, thanks for sticking around. Stay tuned for the report on the pitchers in the next couple days.

Beckett Loses, Curveball Disappears

Josh Beckett took the loss last night, 3-0, against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in his first purely AL start in some time. All of Tampa's scoring was done on solo home runs, two from Ty Wigginton and one from Russel Branyan. Those three homers put Beckett in a very dubious position of honor: for having given up the most home runs in the major leagues. The problem with the results from last night's game is that Beckett really pitched fairly well. He threw 97 pitches over 7 innings, with 7 hits, 3 runs, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts. The fact that he was able to go 7 without even reaching 100 pitches and that all of his dongs were solo shots is an indication that he did a fairly good job of keeping the Rays off the basepaths. Unfortunately, he missed with a few fastballs over the plate and paid the price.

That seems to be the story with our big offseason pickup this year: "He pitched pretty well, just missed with a few fastballs." Beckett has great velocity on his fastball, and when coupled with his intensity on the mound he's able to ratchet even that up a few notches to get the outs he needs. Unfortunately, the AL is a hitter's league, meaning that in order for a pitcher to have success he needs to do more than simply blow it by guys; he has to outfox them. While the fastball appears to be Beckett's bread and butter, he does have a fantastic power curveball which, when mixed in off the fastball, generates either swings and misses or buckling knees. His success during interleague demonstrated his ability to mix in that curveball throughout the entire game, not simply when he got into jams.

If you look below, notice how much more Beckett uses the fastball than he does his other pitches. Special thanks to Euclis20 on Sons of Sam Horn and his ESPN subscription, which allowed him to dig up these interesting numbers. They extend back through 5000 pitches, placing us all the way back through the middle of 2004.

Total:
Fastball: 71%
Curveball: 16%
Changeup: 12%

First pitch:
Fastball: 82%
Curveball: 11%
Changeup: 7%

Ahead in the count:
Fastball: 59%
Curveball: 26%
Changeup: 14%

Behind in the count:
Fastball: 78%
Curveball: 6%
Changeup: 15%

vs. RHB:
Fastball: 71%
Curveball: 20%
Changeup: 8%

vs. LHB:
Fastball: 71%
Curveball: 12%
Changeup: 16%

OBA:
Fastball: .266
Curveball: .127
Changeup: .209

Euclis also posted one more less-than-encouraging number: Hitters that swing at the Beckett's first pitch post a line of 341/.362/.659 and 4 home runs. Apparently, when Beckett said the scouting report on him was to "Swing early," he wasn't kidding.

Throughout all of those numbers the fastball is dominant, but if you look at the OBA (Opponents' Batting Average) against the fastball, it's still only .266. With roughly a year and a half of National League play included in those stats, we can deduce that Beckett's fastball in the NL allowed him to maintain a very high level of success. It's a fastball league, and when you can dial it up, a pitcher of his caliber is going to get the whiffs. However, when you move into the American League a pitcher needs to be smarter in how he goes about his starts. Throwing 94 mph for 100 pitches is a great way to make sure you pitch 6 innings, and an even better way to give up a lot of home runs. With an OBA of .127 against the curveball, it's a wonder he doesn't throw it more often. Even his changeup has a stellar OBA, .209.

In watching his starts, it seems that the lack of curveballs comes from a strange confidence issue. He's going to need to throw that breaking and off-speed stuff for strikes deep in the count if he wants to go anywhere near what he used to do in the NL.