That's basically what I'm hearing all over the media. Now that people actually believe what Buster Olney reported on Friday concerning the Red Sox bid for Matsuzaka, it's all anyone can do to call it preposterous and cartoonish. To throw that much money at an untested player, they say, is ridiculous. To many, this has become another example of the Red Sox trying to be like the Yankees... except that when they Yankees do it they do it with *gag* Yankee Pride.
Here's the thing: $40 million is a ton of money to spend on a posting fee, but chances are the actual contract is going to be more reasonable than that. Matsuzaka represents the best pitching option on the market, even before he's thrown a pitch at the major league level. The next best option is Barry Zito, a free agent expected to earn some serious coin, probably more than Matsuzaka in actual contract value.
ZITO: 2003-2006 MLBW L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
14 12 231.7 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 4.26 129 1.183
11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 4.68 105 1.394
14 13 228.3 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 4.49 116 1.200
16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 4.43 116 1.403
Outside of his actual statistics, Zito is a soft-tossing lefty whose fastball has been losing velocity steadily over the last couple years. At 28, it's unlikely that Zito is going to see any sort of improvement in his fastball. Additionally, since Rick Peterson left the A's as pitching coach in 2003, his stats have declined: his WHIP has gone up, his strikeouts have gone down, and in 2006 he allowed the second highest hit total in his career. Zito is, no question, the best free agent pitcher in the American market, and he is going to receive a contract that reflects that value.
With Matsuzaka, the Sox would pick up an even better pitcher, two years younger:
MATSUZAKA, DAISUKE: NPB 1999-2005W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
16 5 2.60 180.0 124 55 52 14 151 6.20 0.70 4.35 7.55 1.17
14 7 3.97 167.2 132 85 74 12 95 144 7.09 0.64 5.10 7.73 1.35
6 2 3.68 73.1 60 30 30 13 15 78 7.36 1.60 1.84 9.57 1.02
16 7 2.83 194.0 165 71 61 13 63 215 7.65 0.60 2.92 9.97 1.18
10 6 2.90 146.0 127 50 47 7 42 127 7.83 0.43 2.59 7.83 1.16
14 13 2.30 215.0 172 63 55 13 49 226 7.20 0.54 2.05 9.46 1.03
Those are some impressive numbers. A WHIP that only passes 1.20 once, which also happened to be in the one season where his ERA passed 3.5. He absolutely eclipses Zito in K9, (where Zito averages about 6.9, versus Matsu's is roughly 8.7). They speak for themselves.
The point of the matter is this: yes, it's a lot of money to spend, yes, he's untested; but, he's still the best FA option out there. Starting pitching is at an absolute premium, and I'd guess that one would be hard-pressed to find a baseball fan upset were a pitcher of Matsuzaka's caliber to come to their team, the Yankees included.
Worst case scenario, the bid is returned due to failure to sign a contract. Even then, I wouldn't see it as a systematic failure of the posting process, or of the Red Sox lacking any desire to finish the deal. The bid is just the bid. Once it's separated from the actual player, the Red Sox (or any team) would be entirely justified to setting a dollar amount to Matsuzaka. There's no need to break the bank if he's not going to be reasonable.
On a homer note, it's pretty ridiculous that we're hearing so much about the Red Sox making a move that appears to be "bad for baseball." Were it to be the Yankees, I feel that most pundit would be clamoring about how Steinbrenner would just be showing Yankee fans his desire to win. It's frustrating, is all.
Good for the Red Sox front office for taking the chance. It's well worth it.
Labels: 2006 Offseason