Digg! Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Can You See the Crack?

Can you see it? It's just over there, to the left of the place where the Knights of the Keyboard put their official "Destination: Cooperstown" stamp. See it? The crack in Albert Pujols' armor?

It started in the playoffs after being shut down by Tom Glavine, a player who's standing just outside the brick entrance to the Hall, as opposed to down the interstate. Albert Pujols knows he's good, and he's not afraid to tell you about it. Remember when he said Glavine had nothing? Even when Albert couldn't get a hit off of him?

That didn't go over too well. And now, Albert is lobbing mortars at the MVP award carried home by the Phillies' Ryan Howard. He may have a point, about the MVP being contingent upon a team making the playoffs, but then again, there are a ton of ways that the MVP award can be made clearer. Is it the numbers or he intangibles? Is it the season or the home stretch? Is it the playoffs or the effort?

It's these questions that make the awards doled out by MLB so great, and part of what makes baseball, in general, so great. It's so incredibly subjective, it's so incredible fallible, that it perfectly represents the imperfections of humanity. It's why instant replay shouldn't be allowed, and it's why players accused of steroid use are likely going to be allowed into the Hall of Fame. Sure things don't exist in this game (unless you're Derek Jeter).

In other news, the Red Sox are reportedly close to signing a two year deal with Japanese lefty Hideki Okajima, a move that would be beneficial on two fronts: it would help address the bullpen problem, and provide Daisuke Matsuzaka with some incentive and a safety net in the likelihood he signs with the Sox.

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Digg! Monday, November 27, 2006

24:00:00



With the dollars and cents flying every which way these days, what is a sensible general manager to do?

Hang on to Manny Ramirez, that's what.

The game is awash in money, according to numerous sources, and it's evident in the high contracts going around. Juan Pierre is in no way worth the 5 year, $44 million contract he received from the Dodgers, nor is Gary Matthews, Jr. worth the 5 years, $50 million he received from the Angels. Danys Baez? How about 3 years $19 million? The market is at least giving the appearance of having gone insane, and within the one month of the World Series ending in St. Louis, all of the major sluggers have been signed. Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Aramis Ramirez are locked up, each at an exorbitant sum. Still, there are teams who need sluggers, and that appears to be one thing the Red Sox have in excess.

Enter Manny Ramirez and his annual trade requests. With only two years remaining on his enormous contract, Ramirez seems to almost be a bargain to the power-hungry GM. Reports have him going everywhere from Baltimore to San Francisco and everywhere in between. This could finally be the moment the front office has been waiting for, the moment they dump the future Hall of Famer and sign J.D. Drew to piss everybody off with his girly-man ways.

The Red Sox should only consider trading Ramirez if they were to receive a solid package that included a shortstop, potential closer, and several other prospects. It's a lot, I know, but here's the thing: this guy is one his way to Cooperstown. Annoying? Yes. Bitchy? Only according to the Knights of the Keyboard. Defensive liability? Absolutely. Replaceable? Remains to be seen. While I was driving home tonight I fantasized about a deal where the Sox would send Ramirez and Coco Crisp to the Orioles and receive Miguel Tejada and Chris Ray in return. They could stick Wily Mo Peña in left field and Jacoby Ellsbury or David Murphy in center field, and then put the inevitable newest Red Sox, J.D. Drew, in right field. Though both Murphy and Ellsbury are untested, chances are they'd be a defensive upgrade over Crisp. Drew is certainly an upgrade over Nixon, and Peña is defensively comprable to Ramirez. Offensively, there would be question marks outside of Drew and Tejada, but the addition of Ray to the bullpen would likely outweigh the downsides.

The above paragraph is nothing more than the rush hour fantasy of a bored, decaffeinated fanboy, but they do reflect how complicated this question is. Manny Ramirez is hard to replace. His age, durability and attitude have loads of writers and New Englanders pushing the "EJECT" button. He's a thorn. but he's our thorn. It would require a killer package, in my opinion, to move #24 from his place in front of the Green Monster.

The reports say we could know as soon as Saturday, so we'll just have to wait until then.

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Digg! Tuesday, November 21, 2006

BBWAA Has a Pulse: Morneau MVP

The Baseball Writers' Association of America showed rare signs of life today when they voted the Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau the 2007 American League MVP. They got it wrong, of course, as Morneau wasn't really even the most valuable player on his own team (it was Joltin' Joe Mauer), but the important thing is that Derek Jeter didn't win.

Before you start to harp on me for being a Yankee hater, let me say that Jeter had a killer year in 2006. He just wasn't, unfortunately, the MVP. If you take Jeter out of the Yankee lineup, they still make the postseason. Do the same with Mauer or even Morneau, and there's no way the Twins show up in October. I did some overly simple math today at work to show my students the basics arguments against voting for Jeter based solely on the fact he's Derek Jeter:

MIN: AVG OBP SLG OPS

Luis Castillo 0.296 0.358 0.370 0.728
Nick Punto 0.290 0.352 0.373 0.725
MAUER 0.347 0.429 0.507 0.936
Michael Cuddyer 0.284 0.362 0.504 0.866
MORNEAU xxx/xxx/xxx
Torii Hunter 0.278 0.336 0.490 0.826
Rondell White 0.246 0.276 0.365 0.641
Jason Tyner 0.312 0.345 0.353 0.698
Jason Bartlett 0.309 0.367 0.393 0.760

W/o Morneau 0.295 0.353 0.419 0.773


Luis Castillo 0.296 0.358 0.370 0.728
Nick Punto 0.290 0.352 0.373 0.725
MAUER xxx/xxx/xxx
Michael Cuddyer 0.284 0.362 0.504 0.866
MORNEAU 0.321 0.375 0.559 0.934
Torii Hunter 0.278 0.336 0.490 0.826
Rondell White 0.246 0.276 0.365 0.641
Jason Tyner 0.312 0.345 0.353 0.698
Jason Bartlett 0.309 0.367 0.393 0.760

Without Mauer 0.292 0.346 0.426 0.772

NYY:

Johnny Damon 0.285 0.359 0.482 0.841
JETER xxx/xxx/xxx
Jason Giambi 0.253 0.413 0.448 0.861
Alex Rodriguez 0.290 0.392 0.523 0.915
Jorge Posada 0.277 0.374 0.492 0.866
Robinson Cano 0.342 0.365 0.525 0.890
Bobby Abreu 0.297 0.424 0.462 0.886
Melky Cabrera 0.280 0.360 0.391 0.751
Bernie Williams 0.281 0.332 0.436 0.768

W/o Jeter: 0.288 0.377 0.470 0.847

Here's the basic point: if you take Jeter out of the Yankee lineup, even without Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffied, the "average" Yankee hitter is still much better than the average Minnesota hitter. As I said before, Jeter isn't as valuable to the Yankees as Mauer and Morneau to the Twins.

There's more to this argument than that, as in, more numbers to toss about, but I have to roll for this holiday weekend, and outside of maybe a quick post, I'll see everyone on the other side. Happy Thanksgiving.

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Digg! Monday, November 20, 2006

Jim Hendry Forgot His Meds

Wow. You hear "Alfonso Soriano is looking for a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of what Carlos Beltran got," and all you can think is "Man, nobody's that dumb."

Ahem.

The Cubs announced today that they had signed 30 year old second baseman-turned-outfielder Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year, $136 million contract, coming in at around $17 million/year. In landing this free agent fish, the Cubbies managed to add to their lineup a career .280/.325/.510 and 210 steals, all over the course of 7 seasons and some change.

The question is, have the Cubs improved themselves, or does Jim Hendry think it's the winter of 1999? Supporters of this deal will look at Soriano's steals and power (208 career HR) and say that, as one of the few 40-40 guys in baseball history, Soriano is a great addition to any lineup. And, while he was terrible as an infielder, he's managed to convert to an effective outfielder, demonstrating a capable arm and decent range. Despite the fact that in 2005 he managed to post a sub-.300 OBP in the most batter-friendly ballpark in all of baseball, Soriano proved that he could hit in the most difficult, RFK Stadium. That will certainly lend him value in a place like Wrigley, where he will have the likes of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez to back him up in the lineup, something that was missing in Washington.

Critics, however, will point to a number of things wrong with this deal. First of all, there's the length. Eight years is a long time, especially for someone who may or may not be 31 years old at the beginning of the 2006 season but is definitely older than 29. Soriano will be 38 when the deal runs out, meaning that a lot of people see this as the new Pat Burrell: a player with an albatross contract that will need to switch to the American League to DH.

Here's the thing: this contract is similar to the ones dealt out to Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Todd Helton, Mike Hampton, and Denny Neagle. Of all those contracts, ARod, Manny, and Jeter have turned out the best. The rest, with maybe an argument for Todd Helton, have been huge burdens with little consistent return. ARod and Manny had track records testament to potential legacy as two of the best hitters of this generation. Jeter was the new Mr. October. Soriano is, well, Mr. Strikeout. He's the guy shipped to Texas in return for ARod. He's a good player, to be sure, but is he more valuable than Derrek Lee, who (if my math is correct) is to receive just about $75 million over the next 5 or so years and plays Gold Glove defense at first base? My guess is that he's not.

Still, despite all the pros and cons flying about, you can say two things about this deal. First, Hendry is pissed about last year, and second, as a Red Sox fan, "Thank you," for making Matsuzaka look like a steal.

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Digg! Friday, November 17, 2006

Bill Mueller Retires



Number 11 was my favorite. He played only three short years for the Red Sox, but in the three seasons he spent with the Olde Towne Team Mueller added an American League Batting Title and World Series ring to his trophy case. After his 2005 season, Mueller and the Sox went their seperate ways, and Bill signed a 2 year deal worth $9.5 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, joining former Sox Grady Little, Derek Lowe, and Nomar Garciaparra in Dodger blue.

The Dodgers are one of Baseball's most storied franchises, and as one of the classiest players I have ever seen, Mueller appeared to be headed to do Dodger fans proud.

Except for those knees of his. For the third time in three years, Mueller had his knees operated on, though the prognosis for recovery from the 2006 injury was the bleakest he had faced yet. Though there was little hope for recovery, Mueller waited until today, November 17, 2006, to announce his retirement from baseball.

Though he will not be suiting up for the Dodgers in the spring, he will be working for them in the front office, serving as some sort of special assistant to friend and Dodger general manager Ned Colletti.

Mueller embodied the image of the scrappy, old-timey ballplayer. Coming in at 5'9", the story of days and days spent digging balls out of the infield dirt came to light during the 2004 World Series, just after he drove home Dave Roberts with an RBI base hit to tie the game. His career line reads .292/.373/.425, an impressive line for someone of his stature.

Always my favorite.

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Digg! Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Poor Man Joe

The winners of the Manager of the Year award for both leagues were announced today, and to nobody's surprise it was Jim Leyland of Detroit and Joe Girardi, formerly of Florida, who took home the honors. Yea, you read that right, formerly of Florida. Apparently the Marlins decided that landing a 78-84 season with a team payroll under $20 million just wasn't good enough for the top tastes of player-bashing art dealer Jeffrey Loria. Yeesh.

Congratulations, Joe, here's hoping you get back on the field soon.

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Digg! Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Official: Matsuzaka to Speak with Boston

Several minutes ago, Major League Baseball and the Boston Red Sox had a brief (and I mean brief) press conference to announce that the winning bid, accepted by the Seibu Lions of Japan, had indeed been submitted by the Sox. After the official representative of MLB made himself look silly with by butchering Daisuke Matsuzaka's name, Theo Epstein came on the horn and gave the usual "Great player, etc" but maintained the tight-lipped composure of the front office over the last year. There were no specifics revealed about the bidding process, and Theo (smartly) declined to discuss where they foresaw Matsuzaka's place on the team.

I don't believe any of the conspiracies claiming Boston's bid is just to block. There is legitimate interest in this pitcher, and as explained before, there should be.

On a more bitter note: Right after the announcement, I got to hear a talk show host say "Boston is making a complete mockery of the whole process," simply because they refuse to talk to the media about the details. The Yankees, it was claimed, will at least speak to you (the media). C'mon now, just silly.

Here's the link: Red Sox win Matsuzaka Sweepstakes

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Et Tu, Brute?

That's basically what I'm hearing all over the media. Now that people actually believe what Buster Olney reported on Friday concerning the Red Sox bid for Matsuzaka, it's all anyone can do to call it preposterous and cartoonish. To throw that much money at an untested player, they say, is ridiculous. To many, this has become another example of the Red Sox trying to be like the Yankees... except that when they Yankees do it they do it with *gag* Yankee Pride.

Here's the thing: $40 million is a ton of money to spend on a posting fee, but chances are the actual contract is going to be more reasonable than that. Matsuzaka represents the best pitching option on the market, even before he's thrown a pitch at the major league level. The next best option is Barry Zito, a free agent expected to earn some serious coin, probably more than Matsuzaka in actual contract value.

ZITO: 2003-2006 MLB
W L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
14 12 231.7 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 4.26 129 1.183
11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 4.68 105 1.394
14 13 228.3 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 4.49 116 1.200
16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 4.43 116 1.403

Outside of his actual statistics, Zito is a soft-tossing lefty whose fastball has been losing velocity steadily over the last couple years. At 28, it's unlikely that Zito is going to see any sort of improvement in his fastball. Additionally, since Rick Peterson left the A's as pitching coach in 2003, his stats have declined: his WHIP has gone up, his strikeouts have gone down, and in 2006 he allowed the second highest hit total in his career. Zito is, no question, the best free agent pitcher in the American market, and he is going to receive a contract that reflects that value.

With Matsuzaka, the Sox would pick up an even better pitcher, two years younger:

MATSUZAKA, DAISUKE: NPB 1999-2005
W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
16 5 2.60 180.0 124 55 52 14 151 6.20 0.70 4.35 7.55 1.17
14 7 3.97 167.2 132 85 74 12 95 144 7.09 0.64 5.10 7.73 1.35
6 2 3.68 73.1 60 30 30 13 15 78 7.36 1.60 1.84 9.57 1.02
16 7 2.83 194.0 165 71 61 13 63 215 7.65 0.60 2.92 9.97 1.18
10 6 2.90 146.0 127 50 47 7 42 127 7.83 0.43 2.59 7.83 1.16
14 13 2.30 215.0 172 63 55 13 49 226 7.20 0.54 2.05 9.46 1.03

Those are some impressive numbers. A WHIP that only passes 1.20 once, which also happened to be in the one season where his ERA passed 3.5. He absolutely eclipses Zito in K9, (where Zito averages about 6.9, versus Matsu's is roughly 8.7). They speak for themselves.

The point of the matter is this: yes, it's a lot of money to spend, yes, he's untested; but, he's still the best FA option out there. Starting pitching is at an absolute premium, and I'd guess that one would be hard-pressed to find a baseball fan upset were a pitcher of Matsuzaka's caliber to come to their team, the Yankees included.

Worst case scenario, the bid is returned due to failure to sign a contract. Even then, I wouldn't see it as a systematic failure of the posting process, or of the Red Sox lacking any desire to finish the deal. The bid is just the bid. Once it's separated from the actual player, the Red Sox (or any team) would be entirely justified to setting a dollar amount to Matsuzaka. There's no need to break the bank if he's not going to be reasonable.

On a homer note, it's pretty ridiculous that we're hearing so much about the Red Sox making a move that appears to be "bad for baseball." Were it to be the Yankees, I feel that most pundit would be clamoring about how Steinbrenner would just be showing Yankee fans his desire to win. It's frustrating, is all.

Good for the Red Sox front office for taking the chance. It's well worth it.

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Digg! Monday, November 13, 2006

At Least They're On My Fantasy Team

Major League Baseball announced the American and National League Rookies of the Year, and to nobody's surprise, it was Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers who came away with the most votes. After a consistantly dominant rookie year, in which his primary competitors (Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and our very own Jonathan Papelbon) were shut down before the season's end, Verlander showed the mainstream baseball fans exactly what all the geeks had been raving about.

Less decisive was the awarding of RotY honors to ex-Red Sox and current Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez was up against stiff competition on his own team, let alone the threats by Los Angeles' Russell Martin and Washington's Ryan Zimmerman. Dan Uggla and Josh Johnson, both of the Marlins, had impressive rookie year postings.

In seeing Ramirez take home top rookie honors, it's not surprising that the debate over the merits of the Josh Beckett trade last offseason has found incredibly effective fuel. Would Ramirez have been as dominant in the American League? In my opinion, probably not.



RAMIREZ, HANLEY: 2006 MLB
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
158 633 119 185 46 11 17 59 51 15 56 128 .292 .353 .480

His batting line is impressive. Posting .292/.353/.480 with 17 long balls in what essentially looked to be a AAAA lineup speaks volumes to Ramirez's abilities as a hitter. Then again, so do his 128 SO in 633 ABs. It stands to reason that Ramirez reaped the benefits of playing in the National League, where the fastball is used far more often than the breaking pitches, and where AL hitters typically find their numbers improving after a league change. In the AL, Ramirez would've had to adapt to the breaking balls and the best pitchers in all of baseball. His success would've been anything but a sure thing.

Additionally, Ramirez swiped an eye-popping 51 bases, being caught only 15 times, for a 77% SB%. Without a doubt, this talent would've gone unused. The Red Sox are pitiful on the basepaths: the entire team only managed to swipe 51 bags, getting caught 23 times. Not pretty.

Undoubtedly, Ramirez had a great rookie year. But just like every great year in the National League, it likely wouldn't stand the test in the Junior Circuit.

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Digg! Friday, November 10, 2006

A Novel Idea

Darryl Humber over at Baseball Central has a great idea for all of us baseball nuts during the next couple months: a blogospheric version of Around the Horn. Here's his summary:
This is the idea. Every Friday, throughout the winter, I'll be supplying Five Statements, give them to a panel, and see whether or not the panel Agrees or Disagrees with the statement. The panel will change each week and consist of baseball bloggers Baseball Central likes, and associates of Baseball Central. If you want to take part in a future panel, you can. Just let me know, either in the comment section or by email, and we'll hook you up. Since this is brand new and just conceptualized within the last 24 hours, we didn't meet our objective in having a panel of three for this time around. In the future, that's what we're hoping to have. (So there can be some conclusion, either a vote of 3-0 or 2-1).

Today is a panel of two (which means there may be ties.) But it's a good one we've got here. Taking the task, The Hot Corner: A Boston Red Sox Blogger whose site is fantastic, and an associate of Baseball Central, simply known as Lordele. That's his actual name. His first name. He's getting married soon. Everyone give him a hand. After giving him a hand, you are free to question claims in the comment section. Let's get to it. (Baseball Central)
This week's discussion covers the recently traded Gary Sheffield, Barry Zito, Daisuke Matsuzaka and more. Oh yea, and Keith Foulke is a free agent.

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Boston the Winning Bid?

As you may have heard by this point, Vermont native and ESPN baseball analyst Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox may have entered in the top bid for Daisuke Matsuzake, with the amount falling somewhere in the $38 to $45 million range. Sure, it may seem like a ton of money, but I really do think it would be a worthwhile acquisition. A number of message boarders have mentioned the desire to get a foot in the door of the evolving Asian market, China in particular. Though Matsuzaka is Japanese, the Red Sox need to make a strong push to earn the name recognition that a team like the Yankees has in the States, and the Sox themselves currently have in the Dominican Republic. There have been no other reports of the Sox winning the bidding, though I have heard of both the Diamondbacks and the Phillies as possible winners. I hope Olney's right, for a change. Where's Peter Gammons' opinion when you need it?

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Digg! Thursday, November 09, 2006

Second Coming of J.D.?



The answer to that question is an emphatic "No." J.D. Drew opted out of the final three years of his contract with the Dodgers today, forsaking a guaranteed $33 million in order to enter the free agent market.

A first round pick by the St. Louis Cardinals, Drew is most recently known for his 2004 season in Atlanta, cranking out 31 home runs and 93 RBI with a line of .305/.436/.569. Over the last two seasons in L.A., Drew put up 35 dingers and 135 RBI, much of it due to an inability to stay healthy in 2005. He's primarily a right fielder, and since the Red Sox are looking to replace Trot in 2007, Drew automatically enters the equation.

Stay away. Let's look at the career number of the two outfielders:

DREW, 9 seasons:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
960 3161 605 905 160 33 162 509 74 26 529 685 .286 .393 .512

NIXON, 10 seasons:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
982 3285 547 912 204 28 133 523 29 13 454 621 .278 .366 .478

In the numbers, Drew has only really been marginally better than Nixon, has shared Nixon's proclivity for time on the disabled list, yet has managed to out earn Nixon by more than $11 million. In the clubhouse, they couldn't be more different. Nixon's reputation, even outside of Boston, tags him as being a hard-nosed, rough and tumble, team-first kind of player. He's never been the center of any sort of clubhouse controversy, and has garnered only the highest praise from his managers. To the contrary, Drew is known as somewhat of a cruiser, getting by on his talent and never really pushing himself to the limit. He's known for not pushing himself to play through injuries, and managed to have his difficulties with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa documented in the book Three Nights in August.

There'd be no reason for the Sox to pursue a less personable and more expensive outfielder when we can can the same guy for significantly less. Drew's not worth the effort.

MATSUZAKA UPDATE: Nothing. MLB offices are closed for the day. There's probably a good chance we'll hear something tomorrow, though I have nothing concrete to base that assertion on.

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Barfield to the Tribe



Since the Democrats look to have (thank God) gained both the House and Senate in what looks to be a serious electoral coup, maybe, just maybe, the Red Sox are serious contenders in this bidding war for Matsuzaka. The deadline to submit an offer was today at 5 PM EST, but the Seibu Lions technically have until Tuesday to decide whether or not to accept the winning bid. Life I've said before, and a number of people over at one of them fancy-schmancy message boards, Sons of Sam Horn, there's nothing to lose on Matsuzaka other than money.

In other news, the Cleveland traded away infielder Kevin Kouzmanoff and reliever Andrew Brown for National League Rookie of the Year contender Josh Barfield. A look at their stats:

BARFIELD
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
150 539 72 151 32 3 13 58 21 5 30 81 .280 .318 .423

KOUZMANOFF (AAA)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
27 102 22 36 9 0 7 20 2 1 10 12 .353 .409 .647

BROWN (AAA)
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
5 4 2.60 39 0 0 0 5 62.1 52 21 18 5 36 53 .228

Neither of the Indians prospects have seen legitimate time above AAA, though Kouzmanoff, in typical rookie fashion, had a few dramatic home runs in The Show that helped people look past his miserable stats. Still, both sets of minor league stats are impressive, if you can ignore the small sample size. Kouzmanoff seems to pop http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifwith power hitter potential, so if he can translate those to the big leagues, he would be a valuable asset for the Padres at a position where they're not too well stacked. Brown, should he be able to bring his walks down a bit, would contribute to their bullpen as well. Batters aren't putting good wood on the ball against him, and he's producing his fair share of swings and misses in the box.

Still, the Padres are giving up a legitimate player in Barfield. While he's not a serious offensive threat, he is multi-dimensional. You'll hear about his speed (21 SB and only 5 CS), but what jumps out the most to me is his low number of strikeouts (81) in almost 600 ABs. The AL will likely prove difficult for him, but put him in a lineup with the likes of Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez and he'll probably find himself challenged a bit more than in San Diego.

An interesting move here in the early going.

EARLY MORNING EDIT: The San Deigo Union-Tribune has an interesting article with a follow up thought that I hadn't even considered: Mark Loretta is a free agent, and his family is still in San Diego. Granted, given the fact that the Padres seem to be looking to bolster their offense (seen in the trade of Barfield and the letting go of Dave Roberts), Mark Loretta might not be the kind of second baseman they have in mind. Kevin Towers has explicitly mentioned a 2B of "star quality" which sounds surprisingly like "Alfonso Soriano", but should Towers fail to bring the big bat, Loretta would provide, at the very least, a stable alternative.

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Digg! Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Cora Agrees in Principle, Club Declines Foulke's Option

On this night of utter speculation, let's speculate some more. It's being reported that Alex Cora has confirmed agreeing to a 2 year deal with the Sox, though any details beyond that have yet to be revealed. What does it mean for the bench? Offensively, not much, as Cora is pretty poor with the stick. He is, however, an asset defensively, and as long as he doesn't get too many ABs, his attitude and presence will be welcomed.

In this same vein, the Sox declined their part of the $7.5 million mutual option on Keith Foulke's contract today. Foulke has the ability to exercise his portion, worth $3.75 million, or decline and receive a $1.5 million buyout. If I had to guess, Foulke will probably exercise his option (that is, if his agent is doing his job), as he's not likely to land anything better outside of Boston. The front office's decision was certainly a smart one, considering his injury history over the last 2 seasons. Were he to come back, it wouldn't be the worst thing ever, as they'd save close to $4 million and have a potential ace reliever in the cards.

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Digg! Sunday, November 05, 2006

Make It Happen: Matsuzaka to Boston

"Now pitching for the Red Sox, number 18, Daisuke Matsuzaka."

Hey, I can dream can't I? The deadline for teams to submit their posting bids to Major League Baseball is this upcoming Wednesday, November 8. As a result, there are more rumors flying through the airwaves and journalistic medium than flies around Sammy Sosa's career: "The Mariners are in, but wait, now they're out. The Rangers are in, and so are the Red Sox, but it doesn't matter because everybody knows he's going the Yankees." And so it goes, until we actually find out who has earned the rights to *gulp* negotiate with Matsuzaka and his super agent, Scott Boras.

Read that name at the end of the last sentence again, and it's clear that this whole process is going to cost some team a lot of money. The bidding process alone is going to cost someone a wad of cash, unless there's collusion of some sort and they all agree to bid less than $100 bucks. That would be funny. But, I digress. This is going to be an expensive process, something most front offices are hesitant to undergo when the player has yet to perform at the level of your league and a number of similar players have busted upon reaching these shores. Still, this is a chance to do what everybody needs: upgrade the starting staff and not give up the best prospects to get it. It's for that very reason that I think the Red Sox should try their gosh-darnedest to acquire Matsuzaka.

The one thing everybody can agree on is that pitching wins championships, and that quality pitching is hard to come by. The cheapest option is to develop it within your own system, but that takes time and patience, something some clubs don't have, especially if they're trying to make the most of their fanbase. The other options are to either trade for a top starter, or jump headlong into the typically shallow free agent pool and overpay for the hottest thing going. Trading prospects doesn't seem like a bad idea until you acquire Josh Beckett and watch your shortstop prospect vie for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, and your pitcher toss MLB's first no-hitter in 2 years. Free agency, unfortunately, is just as bad. As the Providence Journal's Sean McAdam write for ESPN.com, free agency isn't looking so hot lately, with more and more clubs doing what they can to lock up young pitchers before they hit the market, which means that somebody overpays for guys who don't deserve the big bucks.

Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt are the big names in the 2006 offseason, but neither, in my opinion, would be a good fit for the Red Sox. They're going to demand too much money, and they're starting to decline, visibily, in some cases. Matsuzaka is young enough to be worth a multi-year investment, and according to the scouts, he's the real deal. If the Sox could lock him up, that would be stellar. Even if he doesn't post his numbers from the Seibu Lions, there's a good chance the the numbers he post will make him very valuable. Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann wrote an interesting piece called "Putting a Price on Matsuzaka," in which he mentions using some sort of metric to help convert Matsuzaka's Japanese stats into some sort of general MLB equivalent. The basic conclusion? He's probably worth it.

The biggest thing going for Daisuke is his age. Zito and Schmidt are a few years older, and there is a noticeable movement in baseball to lock up players as they approach their upside, not necessarily when they're in the middle of it. Of course, that's not to say the a 28 year old Barry Zito is a wash, but a 26 year old Matsuzaka seems a bit more tantalizing to a team looking to build a rotation for the next handful of years.

It's going to be an expensive venture, to be sure, but this is a golden opportunity for the Red Sox and any like-minded team. Forget Julio Lugo and kick the tires on the latest Japanese trend. Bring Daisuke Matsuzaka to Boston.

(Photo courtesy of Flickr.com and user Michiyo196.)

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Digg! Thursday, November 02, 2006

Fist Pump Brings Home the Gold



Ok, so you're a professional baseball player or manager. It's that time of the year, when everybody gets together and puts in for the player-selected awards (read: Gold Glove). You know what you're talking about, right? I mean, cmon, you play the game. Right? Your eyes should tell you everything you need to know, because you're a baseball man. Baseball men are never *cough* wrong.

Below are the 2006 fielding statistics for 2 American League shortstops. One of them one the Gold Glove, the other didn't.

G PO A E DP FP lgFP RFg lgRFg RF9 lg
RF9 GS Inn
Player 1:
150 214 381 15 81 .975 .970 3.97 4.02 4.14 4.49 149 1292.3
Player 2:
111 163 305 7 68 .985 .970 4.22 4.02 4.36 4.49 110 966.3


Player 1 has a clear advantage in only one category: innings played (1292.3). Player 1 is by no means a bad player. In fact, he appears to be just above average in all categories except his RFg (range factor per games played). Still, in this situation he's not the best player, is he? Player 2 clearly has higher ratings, and absolutely trounces Player 1 in both RFg and RF9. The number of games he played shouldn't affect anything, should it? This is just a reflection on that player's overall defense, right? (See: Palmeiro, Rafael and "28 games at 1B for a Gold Glove") This is a no brainer. Player 2, hands down.

Good thing you and I aren't professional baseball players or managers. We might actually make the right decision. Player 1 is the Gold Glover for 2006, Derek Jeter, and Player 2 is our own Alex Gonzalez. This isn't a matter of Red Sox/Yankee bias, it's a matter of fact.

Maybe I shouldn't get all huffed and puffed over the fact that the best fielding SS I've ever seen in my short time got the short end of the stick for what, in the end, is a meaningless award. Maybe I shouldn't devote 20 minutes to writing an article when I should be getting some needed sleep. But I can't help it. It just pisses me off.

Derek Jeter is a great player. Hands down, no bones about it. If he played for the Red Sox, I'd be super pumped. He's probably going to win the MVP award this year, and though I really think Joe Mauer deserves it more for playing the most demanding field position and having to maintain his offensive output in a lineup with the likes of offensive powerhouses like Jason Bartlett and Nick Punto to back him up, Jeter more than did his part. He hit for average, power, scored runs, and stole a crapload of bases. He's a great player, and he's playing in a great lineup.

But he's never been a great shortstop. His plays are occasionally flashy, and he's consistent, but half the shortstops in the National League are better fielders. The fact that he received the Gold Glove this year, when Gonzalez both statistically and visually proved to everyone that he was the better defensive player, is just testament to the fact that people believe the hype.

Isn't it strange that the Red Sox had the best infield in baseball, but had no Gold Glovers? Isn't it weird how Derek Jeter continues to get the awards, despite having the Official EA Sports All-Star Playstation Lineup batting around him? Or how about that some people think it's sacriledge to even mention the fact that he doesn't do everything well, like *cough* defense. He's not bad, just not superb.

Gonzalez was superb.

Way to go guys... no wonder you all voted for Bush...

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9:58 PM|W|P|Ryan Brodeur|W|P|


With the dollars and cents flying every which way these days, what is a sensible general manager to do?

Hang on to Manny Ramirez, that's what.

The game is awash in money, according to numerous sources, and it's evident in the high contracts going around. Juan Pierre is in no way worth the 5 year, $44 million contract he received from the Dodgers, nor is Gary Matthews, Jr. worth the 5 years, $50 million he received from the Angels. Danys Baez? How about 3 years $19 million? The market is at least giving the appearance of having gone insane, and within the one month of the World Series ending in St. Louis, all of the major sluggers have been signed. Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Aramis Ramirez are locked up, each at an exorbitant sum. Still, there are teams who need sluggers, and that appears to be one thing the Red Sox have in excess.

Enter Manny Ramirez and his annual trade requests. With only two years remaining on his enormous contract, Ramirez seems to almost be a bargain to the power-hungry GM. Reports have him going everywhere from Baltimore to San Francisco and everywhere in between. This could finally be the moment the front office has been waiting for, the moment they dump the future Hall of Famer and sign J.D. Drew to piss everybody off with his girly-man ways.

The Red Sox should only consider trading Ramirez if they were to receive a solid package that included a shortstop, potential closer, and several other prospects. It's a lot, I know, but here's the thing: this guy is one his way to Cooperstown. Annoying? Yes. Bitchy? Only according to the Knights of the Keyboard. Defensive liability? Absolutely. Replaceable? Remains to be seen. While I was driving home tonight I fantasized about a deal where the Sox would send Ramirez and Coco Crisp to the Orioles and receive Miguel Tejada and Chris Ray in return. They could stick Wily Mo Peña in left field and Jacoby Ellsbury or David Murphy in center field, and then put the inevitable newest Red Sox, J.D. Drew, in right field. Though both Murphy and Ellsbury are untested, chances are they'd be a defensive upgrade over Crisp. Drew is certainly an upgrade over Nixon, and Peña is defensively comprable to Ramirez. Offensively, there would be question marks outside of Drew and Tejada, but the addition of Ray to the bullpen would likely outweigh the downsides.

The above paragraph is nothing more than the rush hour fantasy of a bored, decaffeinated fanboy, but they do reflect how complicated this question is. Manny Ramirez is hard to replace. His age, durability and attitude have loads of writers and New Englanders pushing the "EJECT" button. He's a thorn. but he's our thorn. It would require a killer package, in my opinion, to move #24 from his place in front of the Green Monster.

The reports say we could know as soon as Saturday, so we'll just have to wait until then.

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|W|P|116468291062297089|W|P|24:00:00|W|P|thehotcorner@gmail.com | 9:10 PM|W|P|Ryan Brodeur|W|P|
The Baseball Writers' Association of America showed rare signs of life today when they voted the Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau the 2007 American League MVP. They got it wrong, of course, as Morneau wasn't really even the most valuable player on his own team (it was Joltin' Joe Mauer), but the important thing is that Derek Jeter didn't win.

Before you start to harp on me for being a Yankee hater, let me say that Jeter had a killer year in 2006. He just wasn't, unfortunately, the MVP. If you take Jeter out of the Yankee lineup, they still make the postseason. Do the same with Mauer or even Morneau, and there's no way the Twins show up in October. I did some overly simple math today at work to show my students the basics arguments against voting for Jeter based solely on the fact he's Derek Jeter:

MIN: AVG OBP SLG OPS

Luis Castillo 0.296 0.358 0.370 0.728
Nick Punto 0.290 0.352 0.373 0.725
MAUER 0.347 0.429 0.507 0.936
Michael Cuddyer 0.284 0.362 0.504 0.866
MORNEAU xxx/xxx/xxx
Torii Hunter 0.278 0.336 0.490 0.826
Rondell White 0.246 0.276 0.365 0.641
Jason Tyner 0.312 0.345 0.353 0.698
Jason Bartlett 0.309 0.367 0.393 0.760

W/o Morneau 0.295 0.353 0.419 0.773


Luis Castillo 0.296 0.358 0.370 0.728
Nick Punto 0.290 0.352 0.373 0.725
MAUER xxx/xxx/xxx
Michael Cuddyer 0.284 0.362 0.504 0.866
MORNEAU 0.321 0.375 0.559 0.934
Torii Hunter 0.278 0.336 0.490 0.826
Rondell White 0.246 0.276 0.365 0.641
Jason Tyner 0.312 0.345 0.353 0.698
Jason Bartlett 0.309 0.367 0.393 0.760

Without Mauer 0.292 0.346 0.426 0.772

NYY:

Johnny Damon 0.285 0.359 0.482 0.841
JETER xxx/xxx/xxx
Jason Giambi 0.253 0.413 0.448 0.861
Alex Rodriguez 0.290 0.392 0.523 0.915
Jorge Posada 0.277 0.374 0.492 0.866
Robinson Cano 0.342 0.365 0.525 0.890
Bobby Abreu 0.297 0.424 0.462 0.886
Melky Cabrera 0.280 0.360 0.391 0.751
Bernie Williams 0.281 0.332 0.436 0.768

W/o Jeter: 0.288 0.377 0.470 0.847

Here's the basic point: if you take Jeter out of the Yankee lineup, even without Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffied, the "average" Yankee hitter is still much better than the average Minnesota hitter. As I said before, Jeter isn't as valuable to the Yankees as Mauer and Morneau to the Twins.

There's more to this argument than that, as in, more numbers to toss about, but I have to roll for this holiday weekend, and outside of maybe a quick post, I'll see everyone on the other side. Happy Thanksgiving.

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|W|P|116416252400587412|W|P|BBWAA Has a Pulse: Morneau MVP|W|P|thehotcorner@gmail.com | 7:51 PM|W|P|Ryan Brodeur|W|P|
Wow. You hear "Alfonso Soriano is looking for a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of what Carlos Beltran got," and all you can think is "Man, nobody's that dumb."

Ahem.

The Cubs announced today that they had signed 30 year old second baseman-turned-outfielder Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year, $136 million contract, coming in at around $17 million/year. In landing this free agent fish, the Cubbies managed to add to their lineup a career .280/.325/.510 and 210 steals, all over the course of 7 seasons and some change.

The question is, have the Cubs improved themselves, or does Jim Hendry think it's the winter of 1999? Supporters of this deal will look at Soriano's steals and power (208 career HR) and say that, as one of the few 40-40 guys in baseball history, Soriano is a great addition to any lineup. And, while he was terrible as an infielder, he's managed to convert to an effective outfielder, demonstrating a capable arm and decent range. Despite the fact that in 2005 he managed to post a sub-.300 OBP in the most batter-friendly ballpark in all of baseball, Soriano proved that he could hit in the most difficult, RFK Stadium. That will certainly lend him value in a place like Wrigley, where he will have the likes of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez to back him up in the lineup, something that was missing in Washington.

Critics, however, will point to a number of things wrong with this deal. First of all, there's the length. Eight years is a long time, especially for someone who may or may not be 31 years old at the beginning of the 2006 season but is definitely older than 29. Soriano will be 38 when the deal runs out, meaning that a lot of people see this as the new Pat Burrell: a player with an albatross contract that will need to switch to the American League to DH.

Here's the thing: this contract is similar to the ones dealt out to Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Todd Helton, Mike Hampton, and Denny Neagle. Of all those contracts, ARod, Manny, and Jeter have turned out the best. The rest, with maybe an argument for Todd Helton, have been huge burdens with little consistent return. ARod and Manny had track records testament to potential legacy as two of the best hitters of this generation. Jeter was the new Mr. October. Soriano is, well, Mr. Strikeout. He's the guy shipped to Texas in return for ARod. He's a good player, to be sure, but is he more valuable than Derrek Lee, who (if my math is correct) is to receive just about $75 million over the next 5 or so years and plays Gold Glove defense at first base? My guess is that he's not.

Still, despite all the pros and cons flying about, you can say two things about this deal. First, Hendry is pissed about last year, and second, as a Red Sox fan, "Thank you," for making Matsuzaka look like a steal.

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|W|P|116407487805403209|W|P|Jim Hendry Forgot His Meds|W|P|thehotcorner@gmail.com | 9:55 PM|W|P|Ryan Brodeur|W|P|


Number 11 was my favorite. He played only three short years for the Red Sox, but in the three seasons he spent with the Olde Towne Team Mueller added an American League Batting Title and World Series ring to his trophy case. After his 2005 season, Mueller and the Sox went their seperate ways, and Bill signed a 2 year deal worth $9.5 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, joining former Sox Grady Little, Derek Lowe, and Nomar Garciaparra in Dodger blue.

The Dodgers are one of Baseball's most storied franchises, and as one of the classiest players I have ever seen, Mueller appeared to be headed to do Dodger fans proud.

Except for those knees of his. For the third time in three years, Mueller had his knees operated on, though the prognosis for recovery from the 2006 injury was the bleakest he had faced yet. Though there was little hope for recovery, Mueller waited until today, November 17, 2006, to announce his retirement from baseball.

Though he will not be suiting up for the Dodgers in the spring, he will be working for them in the front office, serving as some sort of special assistant to friend and Dodger general manager Ned Colletti.

Mueller embodied the image of the scrappy, old-timey ballplayer. Coming in at 5'9", the story of days and days spent digging balls out of the infield dirt came to light during the 2004 World Series, just after he drove home Dave Roberts with an RBI base hit to tie the game. His career line reads .292/.373/.425, an impressive line for someone of his stature.

Always my favorite.

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|W|P|116381852325141884|W|P|Bill Mueller Retires|W|P|thehotcorner@gmail.com | 11:43 PM|W|P|Ryan Brodeur|W|P|
The winners of the Manager of the Year award for both leagues were announced today, and to nobody's surprise it was Jim Leyland of Detroit and Joe Girardi, formerly of Florida, who took home the honors. Yea, you read that right, formerly of Florida. Apparently the Marlins decided that landing a 78-84 season with a team payroll under $20 million just wasn't good enough for the top tastes of player-bashing art dealer Jeffrey Loria. Yeesh.

Congratulations, Joe, here's hoping you get back on the field soon.

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|W|P|116365254645695286|W|P|Poor Man Joe|W|P|thehotcorner@gmail.com | 8:19 PM|W|P|Ryan Brodeur|W|P|
Several minutes ago, Major League Baseball and the Boston Red Sox had a brief (and I mean brief) press conference to announce that the winning bid, accepted by the Seibu Lions of Japan, had indeed been submitted by the Sox. After the official representative of MLB made himself look silly with by butchering Daisuke Matsuzaka's name, Theo Epstein came on the horn and gave the usual "Great player, etc" but maintained the tight-lipped composure of the front office over the last year. There were no specifics revealed about the bidding process, and Theo (smartly) declined to discuss where they foresaw Matsuzaka's place on the team.

I don't believe any of the conspiracies claiming Boston's bid is just to block. There is legitimate interest in this pitcher, and as explained before, there should be.

On a more bitter note: Right after the announcement, I got to hear a talk show host say "Boston is making a complete mockery of the whole process," simply because they refuse to talk to the media about the details. The Yankees, it was claimed, will at l