Schilling Worth His Weight?

Curt Schilling announced yesterday that his previously announced decision, to retire from baseball at the conclusion of the 2007 season, is no longer valid: he will pitch in 2008. Schilling evidently wants, when you get down to it, two things: to play with a contract somewhere around the level of his current $13 million deal, and to have the terms for 2008 resolved before Spring Training begins in two weeks.

The fact that somebody with Schilling's talent wants to pitch beyond the reach of his current deal should come as no surprise to anyone. The plucky 39 year old went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA, posting 183 strikeouts in just over 200 IP in the American League, and there's probably a pretty good chance that he'll be able to maintain something along those lines for the next year or so. His K/9 rate, while on the surface not as overwhelming as in the past, is still over 8, and he's carrying a K/BB ratio of more than 6. The most worrisome indicator from last season was the increase to his WHIP, jumping up from 2004's 1.06 to a 1.22 (2005 doesn't count, considering the physical and situational circumstances).

Still, despite the fact that he's probably not going to gas it by many hitters anymore, Schilling's reputation as an obsessive compiler of information on every batter he's ever faced will aid him in the transition from a Roger Clemens-style pitcher to more of a Greg Maddux. He's smart, and he's apparently OK with the fact that he's no longer a hurler, in itself a giant obstacle faced by many pitchers, but one rarely overcome.

If I were the Red Sox, I would likely do what I could to lock him up with a one year contract, and maybe an option. It's unlikely that Schilling is going to post another 20 plus-win season again, but it's just as unlikely that he's going to absolutely collapse. Worst-case scenario, he's the kind of player who's going to push himself to be the absolute best that he can be. When he sucks, he's probably going to be the first one to tell you, an attitude that would be helpful should he ever need to be pushed back in the rotation.

(There is of course, the gushy sentimental reason, and that's the fact that he's the most iconic figure, after David Ortiz, from the 2004 World Series run. It would be a shame to see him running around in another team's uniform.)

It was suggested midway through last season that Schill may be a legitimate contender for the Hall of Fame, but if he were to get in, it would likely only be after a pointedly protracted debate by the voters. Though he's posted over 3000 strikeouts, he's just barely north of the the 200 win mark. If he were to have two great seasons he'd still be over 50 wins short of the magic number 300. His biggest Hall argument comes in the form of his postseason presence, where he's 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA (largely inflated due to his first ALCS game in 2004, before the ankle diagnosis). The most popping postseason numbers? How about 104 Ks in 108 IP, and OBA of .204, and a WHIP of .92? All of them, pretty good. It would be nice to see him enshrined, but it's very much a long shot.

In the end, Schilling is definitely the kind of player that would merit a contract extension before the start of the spring. I have a feeling he'll get it, and if/when he does, it'll be interesting to see just how much his veteran arm (and brain) is worth.

It's Not Nice to Spread Rumors

We're just over two weeks out of Spring Training 2007, J.D. Drew has finally been signed to a more balanced contract, and baseball fans, bloggers, and writers everywhere are searching for something to get them through to the Big Day. That, friends, is where Todd Helton comes in. You know, the Todd Helton that's posted a career OPS of 1.023 in Colorado, smacking close to 300 home runs into the dry Rocky Mountain air in just about 10 years of the big leagues? That's right, he's rumored to be on his way to Boston.

The Rockies, looking to dump the $90 million remaining on Helton's contract, have apparently decided to appeal to the Red Sox desire to land yet another bat to supplement Ramirez, Ortiz, and now, Drew. For what it's worth, I don't really think there's anything to these rumors. The Rockies are asking for Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, and, depending on who you talk to, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. The Sox, ever the negotiators, are instead offering young bucks Mike Lowell and Julian Tavarez.

Sorry, this isn't a baseball rumor, it's the game of MLB 06: The Show I played last night.

The deal doesn't make sense for either team except in the most lopsided of circumstances. The Rockies want to dump payroll and hopefully pick up valuable prospects that will help them compete in the short- and long-term. The Sox want to get rid of Lowell, push Youkilis back to his natural position, acquire an on-base machine, and get the other team to foot the bill. Either way, I can't really see this happening.

Helton really isn't worth the trouble to get him, in this case. While he's been a monster at getting on base for most of his career, his injury history and declining power numbers over the last two years (.534 and .476 SLG in 20005 and 2006, respectively), not to mention the stigma of establishing his hitting legacy at Coors Field all point to an overall negative in his acquisition. Sure, he may be in the top ten active player batting averages, but he's just got too much downside. Oh yea, and he's 32. Even if the Rockies pay the roughly half of what's owed, it's still a beast of a contract, going all the way through the remainder of the first decade of the 21st century.

The Red Sox, as they stand now, are a fairly balanced mix of age and youth, power and speed, pitching and defense. To give up on young pitchers or the system's best positional prospect just to get a player on the wrong side of his peak performance would simply be senseless.

Fun to watch, but senseless.

A word on the Drew signing: I'm starting to feel good about this whole deal, especially because of the clause the front office was able to get put in whereby the last two years of the contract can be voided should significant injury time occur. Drew's still expensive, considering the fact that he has yet to establish a pattern of regular play from season to season, but he promises to be a great number 5 hitter in a lineup where The Man has a gap in his two front teeth and a grin that could light up the New Hampshire sky. Drew will feel pressure, to be sure, but not to carry the team. It could be a breakout year for him.

In Baseball and Politics, Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick

This afternoon, George Mitchell, the former US Senator in charge of Major League Baseball's independent, no-holds-barred probe of the steroids controversy, delivered an ultimatum (of sorts) to baseball owners at their annual meeting in Arizona: "Help me, help you... or else." Essentially, Mitchell told the owners that if they didn't help his investigation to the fullest of their ability, he would wink-wink nudge-nudge his friends on Capital Hill enough to get a few legitimate subpoenas.

Serious?

Look, I'm all about baseball being the national pastime, and I love the fact that baseball has it's antitrust protections (it's kind of quaint, in a sepia-toned kind of way). But when you think about it, Congress has better things to do during the day, like, say, calling in billions of dollars worth of oil royalties, or sunsetting college loan interest rates. Baseball really needs to grow a set of stones and clean up It's own house.

The obstacles to trying to clean up the game are hidden in plain sight. The MLBPA would never in a million years let someone from the Commissioner's Office have their way with players accused of doing steroids, and the owners definitely would not want to see their cash cows prematurely put out to pasture.

Unfortunately, there's little likelihood that Selig or his compadres are going to try and force the issue unless they're mandated by Uncle Sam. So, if it's cleaning up the game everybody's worried about, I guess we really don't have much of a choice (poor though it might be) taking a vote and hoping it sticks.

Hey, at least we know Bush wouldn't veto it.

Sprinting Into The New Year

It's been close to a month since the last post, and there's definitely some catching up to do. Unfortunately, most of it is outside of New England. Randy Johnson was traded, Barry Zito signed, another Japanese pitcher was added to the Bronx mix, J.D. Drew's contract continues to undergo modifications to it's language, and the Hall of Fame announced the 2007 inductees, Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn.

The most interesting thing to come out of the last month has been the discussion of Big Mac's credentials for the Hall of Fame. Should steroids keep him out, or should their impact be discounted due to what we suspect was widespread use during Mac's prime? Surprisingly, he did receive votes for the Hall, meaning that there really is truth to the notion that steroids weren't as devastating to the game as the media has hyped them to be.

Of course, in the end, he wasn't elected (just like Jim Ed), and two of the biggest baseball icons of the last 25 years will be walking to the podium at the end of July.

I know it's just a little bit, but I'll be back for more. Stay tuned.