Caveat Emptor

Look, I know that Johan Santana appears to be on his way to the Hall of Fame. I know that he has two Cy Young awards and a changeup that defies the laws of physics on the way to the strike zone. I know he's 28 and likely to have a good chunk of miles left in his tank.

I'm just not sure I want him on my baseball team.

It's not that his skillset isn't desired. I mean, who wouldn't want somebody that talented to help anchor their rotation? But is a man that is likely to command more than $20 million per year over the course of five years worth a crop of your cheap young talent and the bulk of your coffers? Unfortunately, there's really no way to every be certain which direction is best.

On the one hand you could possibly have the best pitcher in the game complementing a 26-year-old 20 game winner and a Japanese phenom itching for some payback in his second go round. Thing is, one poor throw or one misstep and all of that money goes out the window, along with all the league-minimum prospects once under your control.

This thing is being talked about on every site imaginable, but count me into the group that isn't so sure breaking the bank for Johan is all it's cracked up to be.

The Last Word

Bill B. over at Crashburn Alley got into a rather heated exchange with columnist Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News over the legitimacy of Jimmy Rollins' National League MVP Award. Long story short:

1. Conlin makes unimpressive arguments defending Rollins against other candidates while simultaneously taking a swipe against bloggers and sabermetrics using incorrect information.

2. Crashburn Alley writes a polite response to Conlin.

3. Colin gets snippy.

4. Crashburn tactfully responds.

5. Conlin mentions that Hitler would've done everybody a favor and wiped out the bloggers that apparently pollute cyberspace.

It's really the sort of exchange that you should read for yourselves.

What a Baseball Fan Does on a Raw November Evening

Sitting around the Hot Stove, waiting for the first shots of Moving Day or the reports of rested pitchers tossing back and forth, every good baseball fan looks for a way to pass the time. Some of the less enlightened throw their passion towards other sports, like football and basketball. Anybody who devotedly follows the NHL is a sports purist in the highest sense of the term, and must be kept out of the company of the formerly mentioned misguided souls. For those of the single-minded nature, how can baseball possibly carry on through the colder months?

1. For the most passive sort of entertainment, you can't beat the package that XM Radio has thrown together. Their MLB Home Plate programming is outstanding in-season and out, covering every pitch as it happens and after the fact. They're at the World Series and winter meetings, and they're in both Arizona and Florida. Their on-air personalities take some getting used to, but are a refreshing change from the self-serving, inflammatory jockeys on the nationally syndicated networks. They just love baseball, and to be honest, they get by far the best guests because the guests know they're not going to be swirled in the scandal pool for 90% of an interview. It's a pleasure to listen to. (Oh yea, and their sponsors only take up 10 minutes of every hour of programming. Take a stopwatch to ESPN Radio or WEEI, and see what the comparison is.)

SITE:
MLB Home Plate

3. The next step would be catching up on all the baseball reading that hasn't been done over the summer. All of the sites listed to your right are highly recommended reads, but if you peruse the local bookstore you'll find some gems as well. Here are a few favorites, some of which you will undoubtedly recognize, others may be new. I'll only name the best, and the titles are linked.

FICTION
The Iowa Baseball Confederacy (W. P. Kinsella)
The Universal Baseball Association, Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Prop. (Robert Coover)

NONFICTION
Eight Men Out (Eliot Asinof)
Lardner on Baseball (Ring Lardner)
Spalding's World Tour (Mark Lamster)
In the Best Interests of Baseball? (Andrew Zimbalist)

3. Finally, if you're truly yearning for the thrill and unpredictable up and down excitement of the season, try a little offseason ball. Instead of fantasy, find yourself a copy of Out of the Park Baseball for your computer. You can sim entire seasons or the entire history of the game. Heck, you can create your own league, your own universe and get to be the general manager.

If you're into something a little less disengaged (read: don't like having a mouse click do it all for you), then find a dusty hobby shop and grab a copy of Strat-o-Matic Baseball. I did last fall, and that stuff is addictive, believe you me. It's got all the dice-rolling and number-crunching anyone could every want.

SITES:
Out of the Park Baseball 2007
Strat-o-Matic Baseball 2007

My perfect combination? Read Coover's Universal Baseball Association, grab a copy of Strat or OOTP, and create your own league. The Newton Highlanders are currently fighting for .500 in the inaugural season of the Massachusetts Baseball Society, a little-researched league that buzzed about in the middle of the 19th century.

Have fun.

(Image courtesy of the forum at www.baseball-fever.com)

Mike Lowell to Remain

Despite the persistent rumors that a number of teams had been willing to go to four years for the services of Mike Lowell, in the end it seemed that Philly was the only one. What's their to do in Philly? You should ask Lowell, whose rejection of a 4-year, $50 million deal comes not only as a rejection of the direction of the Phillies organization, but as an affirmation of the one we have in Boston, as Lowell is reported to have agreed in principal to a deal to stay in the Fens. The final number, expected to be a three-year deal for $37.5 million, should be announced this afternoon pending the results of physical.

All in all, I'm very happy with the results of these negotiations. There were really only two legitimate roads to follow for the third base situation. Either the Sox re-upped Lowell for a little more money than he's probably worth, or they parted with top prospects to try and land Miguel Cabrera. A-Rod never really seemed a real possibility to anyone other than reporters trying to chum the water when there was nothing to report. The rest of the free agent market was, to be completely frank, barren. Any trade for Cabrera would strip a farm system that is just beginning to flourish at the major league level, and would set the Sox up for another player who looks to be a DH in the making.

In reality the Lowell signing allows the Sox to maintain the status quo. There no way we're going to get his 2007 line from him with any sort of regularity (and in saying this, I'm hoping to be proven wrong each of the next three years), but his swing is fit for Fenway and his approach is a good one to have in the middle of the lineup.

The most irreplaceable quality of #25 is his clubhouse presence and the bridge that Lowell provides between old and young, Latin and Anglo. That, most certainly, is something than can neither be quantified nor overvalued. In a city like this, with a fan base so obsessed it'd rather talk about baseball at Thanksgiving than a football team on its way to one of the best single-season runs in NFL history, an even-keeled approach with a knack for leadership is a must.

All in all, a good signing. Welcome back, Mike.

Notes

Yetsterday bore the announcement of C.C. Sabathia as the American League Cy Young winner for 2007, an award that was hotly contested on the Junior Circuit. Sabathia, battery mate Fausto Carmona and our very own Josh Beckett were the top three possibilities for the award, though surprisingly Anaheim's John Lackey managed to end up in the top three for vote-getting. Look, I wanted Beckett to win just as anyone, but in the regular season Sabathia was an absolute war horse, going well beyond the extra mile to help his club out. Unfortunately for C.C., Beckett had to settle for the second place prize: a world championship.

With the free agent deadline having come an gone with Tuesday morning, talks between the Red Sox and Mike Lowell seemed to have gone as far as they can. My own personal expectation is that Lowell will sign elsewhere for his desired four years and $56 million, and though I'm disappointed at the likelihood of him playing 2008 in another uniform the last 3 seasons have demonstrated just how quickly a beloved player can go from fan favorite to fan forgotten.

Unlike the majority of the buzzers out there I'm not entirely convinced the Sox are interested in pursuing Alex Rodriguez, unless of course he's willing to play third base for less than the contract he opted out of. Look, he may well be the best offensive player of this era, but I find it hard to believe that one man is worth 1/5 of a team's payroll for any given year. Alex can't win the games all by himself, as the acquisition of Manny demonstrated in the early stages of his deal (read: pre-Ortiz). The biggest argument for ARod pursuit would be the desire to replace Ramirez's after this season with Rodriguez, and then maybe hang on to Coco Crisp as a left fielder with Ellsbury in center for an overall defensive upgrade without the offensive reduction.

I'd be very interested in seeing the Sox try and work something out via trade for their third base hole, though color me indifferent about Miguel Cabrera. Sure, he's a great player at the dish, but he's miserable defensively and has absolutely zero character pluses that anyone has seen. The last thing we'd need is for Miggy to be found chest-high in pizza boxes and women of the night at some 24-hour establishment of ill repute. Andy Laroche would be a fun guy to pursue, especially if LA insists on chasing ARod down the hall.

Fantasy pickups? How about Ryan Zimmerman as a possible trade possibility? Ignore the fact that he's the cornerstone of that Washington franchise, or that the Nationals' front office is notorious for overvaluing their players to the point of absurdity. Zimmerman would be a great player to watch develop in Fenway Park, and an infield of Zim, Lowrie, Pedroia and Youkilis in 2009 would be a blast to watch.

David 1, Goliath 0

The BBWAA named Dustin Pedroia the American League Rookie of the Year this afternoon, to the surprise of nobody outside of Tampa Bay. It was a great season and postseason, made even greater when it was revealed this week that he had been playing with a broken for all of September and October with a broken hamate bone. He played nitty, gritty, grindstone baseball from the first week of April to the last week of October, and we all loved him for it. Click the link above for his regular and postseason stats.

The success of Pedroia, Ellsbury, Papelbon and Lester is really a testament to the work and discretion that the baseball operations staff has employed in rebuilding the farm system.

A Lowell-Down Collusion

At the end of this past week the general managers' meetings wrapped up down in Orlando, FL without many headlines outside of the signings of Curt Schilling, Omar Vizquel and Greg Maddux. Oh yea, and that collusion thing. You heard about that, right? About how Don Fehr and Gene Orza tried to pass matching kidney stones while thinking about Theo Epstein and Larry Beinfest's GM-only support group? Didn't hear? Well here's what that Dynamic Duo of the MLBPA had to say in their press release:

NEW YORK -- Over the past few days, press reports coming out of the General Managers' meetings relating to the sharing of information between clubs as to their plans regarding players potentially raise serious questions concerning the fairness and integrity of the free agent market. Such questions are amplified by reports stating that the Commissioner is attempting to influence the market for at least one player.

"Any such activity with respect to free agents is clearly improper," said Don Fehr, Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players Association. "We expect to look into the situation, and are prepared to take the appropriate action to respond to any collusive behavior, and to make sure that the rights of free agent players under the Basic Agreement are fully protected." (MLBPA)

OK, this is a legitimate gripe. Considering all the troubles the Players' Association has had with trying to get their members the best possible treatment over the last 30 or so years, I don't think anyone can blame Fehr and Orza, as unlikeable a pair as has ever been seen in baseball, for getting their backs up. Here's the thing: by all accounts this was nothing like collusion.

Theo himself was reported to have essentially stood up and said, "Hi, my name's Theo, and I would really like to sign my third baseman." Brian Cashman is actually quoted as saying "I don’t have a third baseman. I need a third baseman.” (New York Times) That's not collusion, is it? Here's what the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA, in the future) has to say:

E. Individual Nature of Rights

(1) The utilization or non-utilization of [Free Agent] rights under Article XIX(A)(2) and Article XX is an individual matter to be determined solely by each Player and each Club for his or its own benefit. Players shall not act in concert with other Players and Clubs shall not act in concert with other Clubs.

collusion as being instances where clubs explicitly discussed potential payroll limitations and player desires as regards free agent signings in the This section of the CBA was interpreted by the original labor lawyer for the MLBPA, should-be Hall of Famer Marvin Miller on XM's "The Show" Friday afternoon. He further definiedoffseason. If Theo said, "I'll sign A-Rod for nor more than $10 million per year to a maximum of 5 years," and Cashman says, "I'll sign A-Rod for nor more than $11 million for 4 years," and it continues around the room, that becomes collusion for the simple reason that the use of the A-Rod's rights as a free agent are employed for the benefit of every club, as stating contract ceilings out loud to competitors limits the market for his services. As it stands, what was actually said at the meetings ("I need a third baseman, and I really would like Cy Young to anchor my rotation") doesn't actually count.

Give Theo and Beinfest credit, they checked with representatives from MLB's baseball operations and labor divisions for permission prior to executing the idea and they had lawyers present to just cover their tails. I really don't think there was enough smoke here for the union to cry "Fire!" in the crowded conference room. Add to all this that Orza was so delusional that he accused the Times' Murray Chass of being an "enabler of collusion" and you have a false alarm. I guess the '80s really are dead, aren't they?

For us fans of the local nine, we got to see G38 pony up for one more season in the Hub and we got to watch the second hand slowly count down until midnight Monday, the end time for the Sox' exclusive negotiating rights with Mike Lowell.

A report came out on Thursday night indicating that the Sox had made a "solid" contract offer to Lowell that included three guaranteed years and somewhere just north of $12 million per season. Unfortunately, whereas it was once thought that Lowell only needed that third year he's now rumored to be seeking a fourth and $15 million per.

Sound familiar? These numbers and years are the exact same that were thrown around in the Varitek and Damon negotiations, and we all know how that turned up. Unfortunately the other two times around the carousel were a little more clear cut in regards to their overall value. Varitek, as the catcher who handled pitchers young and old, had and effect that wasn't as easily measured on the back of his baseball card. Add to that the fact that there were at the time no real hands on the farm that could take his spot and the most scarcity of any position and you have the need to resign him, to go the extra mile. Damon, as any Idiot should tell you, was simpler still. At the top of the Sox lineup he was among the best leadoff hitters in baseball, but his biggest ability (his speed) started to wind down as he wound up into his thirties. Add to that his awful throwing arm and the ability for just about anybody to fill in passably at center field and you have less of a need. Jacoby Ellsbury was also just starting to heat up in the minors at the time, meaning that there really wouldn't be any need to lock down Damon by locking up all that money. No signing.

Lowell is a little of both. By the nature of his position he is at least, in the most limited sense, replaceable. You can take a lot of different types of infielders and turn them into league average third basemen. Whereas a lot of folks would argue that Lowell's greatest strength is his defense, in reality it's his bat and his leadership. In the clubhouse Lowell was so well-respected that Jason Varitek carried around a fan's "SIGN MIKE LOWELL" sign at the World Series parade and Curt Schilling ended his 38Pitches.com post announcing his new contract with the words:

Now the only thing that’s left is this…

SIGN MIKE LOWELL!!!!!

If the players actually echo the sentiments of Sox fans who chanted that same line immediately following the World Series win in Colorado, you've got to figure it to be true. Some would argue that his off-field intangibles make him worth any reasonable contract, and still others say that when you add his abilities at the dish he's worth anything at all.

Lowell is the kind of hitter who makes himself permanently aware of the situation. His swing adjusts based on the count, the runners on base, and the hurler on the hill. It may seem like just plain common sense that a hitter shorten his swing when in a hole or trying to knock one in, but Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, and even Varitek himself are perfect examples of how uncommon Mike's common sense truly is. We all loved seeing a pitcher toss a waist-high fastball at him with the game on the line and the Monster looming in the distance. Wall-ball double, anyone?

Now if you're hoping for good news, this isn't really the place to find it. I love Mike Lowell. I have a total man-crush on Mike Lowell, but I'm not sure if his on-field abilities will really hold up to a four year contract. In 2007 he posted a line of .324/.378/.501 with 21 HR and 120 RBI, all impressive numbers. The trouble? A BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .342. BABIP is a very unstable stat, dependent on so many factors that it's unlikely to ever reproduce itself from year to year. Lowell's career low BABIP is .253, posted in 2005, and his previous career high was .304, posted in 2001. His 2007 number is so far out of line with the rest of his time in the league that one can't help but think he's due for some regression to the mean.

I mean, sure, he's a great player with a swing tailor-made to pepper the wall with singles and doubles that would be outs anywhere else, but any GM worth his salt can't offer a four year deal to a 33 year old player without some hesitation. Heck, I don't care how old the player is, offering a four or five year deal to anyone based on one season is suicide. Just ask Bill Bavasi, Adrian Beltre and the Seattle Mariners.

I want Mike Lowell to resign with the Sox as much as anyone but a fourth guaranteed year, especially at his requested $15 million, is just a little too rich for my taste. A fourth year option wouldn't be all that bad but again, $15 mil is a lot.

I wouldn't expect any sort of resolution on this until during or after the winter meetings, but let's all hope that we're happily cheering on number 25 at the hot corner in April 2008.

Autumn's Schill Here to Stay

The Boston Herald, ESPN.com, and a guy by the name of Gehrig38 over at SonsofSamHorn.net have all been reporting that Curt Schilling has agreed to a one-year contract for $8 million, with a maximum of $5 million in incentives. I think we can all agree that the appropriate response to this piece of news should be a high five with the Sox fan sitting next to you. Trust me, this is a good thing. I know, I know, he's old, turning 41 in exactly one week, but we've all seen that pitchers can and will pitch successfully beyond the previously established career limits that hover in everyone's heads.

Look at it this way: the free agent market for pitchers this year consists of (possibly) Andy Pettite and a standup cardboard picture of Roger Clemens. It's incredibly thin. If he hit the market (I mean really hit the market), Schilling would have easily attracted more money. Why? Because he can still pitch. Although he's no longer gassing 95 mph cheese down Broadway and glaring at batters in defiance, he still obeys the cardinal rules of being a successful pitcher: don't walk anybody and throw strikes.

Come to think of it, that might just be the same rule stated differently. Huh.

Whatever the case may be, Schilling still managed to notch 9 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA in a tough league and battling physical problems for a significant chunk of the season. Although he pitched he lowest number of innings since 1995 in Philadelphia (2005 doesn't count, given the nature of his injury and subsequent road to recovery), he only walked 23 men in those 151 frames. Add to that the fact that he was still able to average 6.02 K/9 while adding a changeup to his repertoire and you can argue that Schilling has a lot of ability left. His WHIP was only 1.25, and batters were hitting at under .300 against him (well, .279 to be fair, but still not a total dominance).

The point of all these fun numbers and facts is that he's worth every penny to this team. He's a more than capable pitcher on the mound if (big if) he can stay healthy and put up another 20-30 starts in 2008. Off the field his preparation shows young players how to get themselves ready for their own starts and demonstrates successful methods for coping with the varied situations they encounter both on and off the field. He's a teacher, a good one. I'm very happy with this deal.

On a sidenote, in case you didn't hear over the weekend, Tim Wakefield and Julian Tavarez will be returning to the Red Sox in 2008, as the team picked up the options they held for each player on Friday. Although Wakefield had a balky back and Tavarez was left off of every postseason roster, the fact that their combined salaries come in at under $8 million and that they each provide a large amount of flexibility made their pickups a no-brainer. Both are the sort of "rubber arm" hurlers who can help you out in a pinch, and both have the ability to go out on any given night and throw an absolute gem. With the way the free agent market has been trending over the last couple years, keeping these two under control makes a lot of sense. Combined with resigning of Curt Schilling, the Sox seem to find themselves in a position to have their rotation (and a good chunk of their bullpen) well defined on this, the second day of the GM meetings down south.

So Late Why Am I Bothering to Write?

When I woke up this morning, I realized two things:

1. This week was finally, finally over.
2. I had yet to post an article on one of the biggest events in Boston sports over the last three years:

A-Rod opted out of his contract with the Yankees!

Oh yea, and the Sox, riding one of the most historic displays of offense in World Series history, brought home their seventh title and second in four years, beating the Colorado Rockies 4 games to none in the Fall Classic.

I know, right? Who'd have thought that we'd be this lucky? Not only did the Red Sox win, but we as fans got to see the classy franchise that is the New York Yankees turn into a bad episode of "Gossip Girl." The weirdest part is that even though I was joking about A-Rod being the bigger story, it was kinda true. Beginning with the revelation on FOX in the middle of Game 4 that A-Rod had copped, I mean opted out, and continuing with the hiring of Joe Girardi to replace Joe Torre who went to the Dodgers to replace Grady Little, the Red Sox World Championship was, well, second string. That's not to say that it's not important, because I know that I'm still riding a "pinch-me" glow after doing the lamest victory dance ever last Sunday night. It's just that the World Series win wasn't all that dramatic.

If you read any of the articles floating out there during the week, you'd realize the sentiment is universal: the Sox won because they were, are, the best team in baseball and had been all season. Their win capped off a postseason where only two series went beyond 4 game sweeps, and one of them was a 5 game series (Cleveland-New York, ALDS). The best, most intense baseball was played during the ALCS between Cleveland and Boston. Colorado didn't even show up for the World Series. This postseason merely demonstrated that baseball still has a long way to go to establish any sort of real parity. Sure, there was a lot more balance in each league this year, with the NL races coming down to the wire, but in the end the American League is still the reigning superpower, with the Senior Circuit turning into a Freshman Team All-Star Show.

If you give it 5 to 10 years, you might see the field start to level off, but until that happens the World Series will continue to be incredibly boring. The only people who love to watch the Sox sweep in 4 are me and the rest of Red Sox Nation. Everybody else wants to see good, competitive, championship-caliber baseball, and they haven't had it in a long time.

So, sure, I'm beyond happy that I have seen the second Boston championship, but there's still a very small part of me who, fully aware of all the voodoo I performed to make the win so easy, is looking for the Staples button so that I may hammer out a satisfying, "That was easy."

Congratulations, everybody.