C.C. Loves Prospect Cookies!

We're just a few days away from July 1 and the countdown to the most overhyped moment in baseball: the trading deadline, and Cleveland is already abuzz with swirling rumors that C.C. Sabathia, their beloved lefty starter, is on his way out the door. Although Sabathia signed a two year extension in 2006 worth $17.75 million, the team's recent inability to get anything done right has GM Mark Shapiro looking for ways to restock his farm system instead of jumping into a nasty free agent bidding war for the ace's services this offseason. The Red Sox are reportedly holding one of the most coveted farm systems in the Tribe's front office, and with good reason. The system is stacked with prospects like Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson that are bubbling to the top levels, and don't forget that this is all due to the knockout blow the Sox delivered to Eric Wedge & Co. last October. It's an ALCS hangover, like whoa. We saw it in Detroit after they were annihilated in the 2006 World Series. Once down, they just can't get up.

But enough of that, the real question is whether or not the Sox should reciprocate the interest. Quick answer, yes, mulled over answer, maybe. Look, it's hard to argue with Sabathia's dominance.

Year Ag W L G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2001 20 17 5 33 33 180.3 149 93 88 19 95 171 4.39 4.48 102 1.353
2002 21 13 11 33 33 210.0 198 109 102 17 88 149 4.37 4.38 100 1.362
2003 22 13 9 30 30 197.7 190 85 79 19 66 141 3.60 4.39 122 1.295
2004 23 11 10 30 30 188.0 176 90 86 20 72 139 4.12 4.36 106 1.319
2005 24 15 10 31 31 196.7 185 92 88 19 62 161 4.03 4.19 104 1.256
2006 25 12 11 28 28 192.7 182 83 69 17 44 172 3.22 4.52 140 1.173
2007 26 19 7 34 34 241.0 238 94 86 20 37 209 3.21 4.61 143 1.141
2008 27 6 8 17 17 114.3 110 49 48 11 32 118 3.78 4.16 110 1.24

Even a quick peek at those numbers will you that, especially lately, Sabathia has been dominant. An ERA+ of 140 and higher in '06 and '07 (plus a Cy Young Award) are nothing to laugh at, and even though he's sub-.500 this season, he's still pitching mostly like he has in the last two. So specifically, why should the Sox pursue him?

First, he's an all-around ace. He's got a dominant sinker to compliment his fastball, slider, and change-up, and he's a workhorse to boot. His lowest IP for a season was the 180.3 in his rookie year. Last year's Cy Young accolade was more a tip of the cap to his ability to save the Indian buillpen from overuse more than anything else, as he topped out at a whopping 240 IP. While his strikeouts aren't spectacular, they're great when held next to a WHIP that's dropped like a stone every year but 2004. He's built like an ox with the strength to match it and, oh yea, and he's all this and more at the ripe young age of 27.

So, then, if he's this good, why any hesitation at all? If he's bigger and stronger than Johan Santana and having a downish year, why not capitalize on Shapiro's interest and trade-and-sign him? Well, while one of his strengths is his durability, it also means he's put 1520.7 innings on that left arm of his before the age of 28, a feat that leaves him in such loveable company as Dan Petry, Tony Cloninger and Dave McNally (I skipped Greg Maddux because nobody's really like Maddux). He could have a lot left in the tank or he could not, but with that large of a load (pun possibly intended) this young, it's a big risk. Also, while Sabathia has shown regular season dominance, we all saw just how ineffective he was in the postseason against the Sox. Giving up 17 ER, 27 H and 18 BB in 21 total postseason innings isn't impressive. Although it's very Yankee-esque of me to say it, you're worth nothing until you've done it in October. Just ask Josh Beckett, who's been everything since doing it twice in the Classic.

His services aren't going to come cheap either way you cut it, but he might be worth pursuing given Schillings surgery and Daisuke's spottiness. The it'll really come down to just what the Indians are going to want, exactly. A top prospect and maybe 2 second tier would be ok, but when you toss in the huge paycheck his agent is going to demand, C.C. might just find himself stuck in Cleveland until December. We've seen just how rewarding it is to wait on the products of the farm system. It's very easy to go to one extreme or the other with these prospects, either spending them too quickly or hoarding them too greedily.

In the end, if you ask me, Sabathia is good enough to pursue right now at the midpoint. This Sox team is standing in first place without one of their best pitchers and without their All-Star DH. They should be percentage points behind the Rays this morning, but are in fact in the exact opposite place thanks to a late showing by the Pirates. You can't hope to get into, much less move through the postseason like that. Sabathia would put the Sox over the top a time when they need it most, and with Beckett clearly the ace on this staff, C.C. would set himself up to be the best number 2 starter in the league.

This isn't Santana and this isn't offseason speculation. We know what we have and we know where we need to be. I think a deal would get us there.

The Case for Chris Smith

Sunday's loss to St. Louis was a downer, to be sure. The Cards used a severely off-game Daisuke Matsuzaka as their own personal launching pad for the first two innings, and though they were held to only one run after that, the Cardinals still came out on top. The story of the day for me, however, was the debut of young Chris Smith.

Prior to his call-up last week as a replacement for the DL-bound Bartolo Colon, Smith had pitched himself to a pretty line in Pawtucket, the result of 2+ solid years in the system. Let's have a look.

Season Team W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO
2006 (AA) 9 6 4.05 20 20 115.2 114 57 52 9 29 78
2006 (AAA) 1 1 3.21 7 6 33.2 33 16 12 2 9 23
2007 (AA) 6 9 4.41 30 14 104.0 126 57 51 10 42 80
2007 (AAA) 0 0 1.80 2 0 5.0 5 1 1 0 0 2
2008 (AAA) 1 2 1.52 22 4 41.1 29 8 7 3 7 40

If you can read through my horrible table, you'll notice that despite a few inflated ERAs at Portland during 2006 and 2007, Smith is not a bad little pitcher. True, they are his largest samples, representing his longest seasons in professional baseball, but as a middle reliever with sold command of his off-speed pitches and a passable fastball, he has upside. Also, both AA seasons saw him used as a starter, and he certainly doesn't have the makeup to have exception success or utility in such a role. This season's numbers from Pawtucket are, I believe, a a greater indication of his usefulness in the 'pen. He averaged just under a strikeout per inning, and only gave up 29 hits in all of his 41.1 IP. That line is nothing to sneeze at, and those numbers combined with his performance on Saturday, give him upside.

He came into the game in the second inning with the bases loaded and no outs, and promptly sends Rick Ankiel to the bench on three swinging strikes, none of them fastballs. Unfortunately, Troy Glaus does his best imitation of his 2000 season and deposits the ball beyond the fence for a grand slam. Now, we've all seen what can happen when a young reliever makes his debut and stinks up the place within the first few pitches (Cla Meredith, anyone); it can be a difficult thing to recover from. Smith, however, has his wits all about him and goes then next 3.2 innings without letting up a run, and only two hits after that bomb by Glaus. My mother-in-law also pointed out something that should be all-important. He made the plays at first base, scampering over several times to take the feed from Youkilis, something several of our upstanding prospects have failed to do in similar situations.

Chris Smith is a kid with some promise. Given the recent movement of Mike Timlin to the DL and his overall ineffectiveness, Smith is my homer pick to stick with the big club.

Home with Jekyl and Away with Hyde

Seriously? Is this team really this bipolar?

The East-leading Sox hold the reins by two games, but this despite the enormous disparity between their home and away records. Inside Fenway they've managed to pitch, hit and throw their way to a 28-7 mark, best in all of baseball. On the heat-soaked trails of the summer road schedule they've floundered at 14-21, seven games under .500. Last night's 3-1 loss to Cincinnati perfectly represented the struggles they've had. We've managed to pick up decent starting pitching off every part of the farm and from underneath every rock in free agency... ok, well, not really, but we've been ok. Haven't we?

Let's look at the way our nine hold up to the rest of the major league baseball:

Batting average: 3rd
On-base percentage: 2nd
Slugging percentage: 4th

Earned runs: 12th best
Walks: 24th

Maybe that pitching hasn't been as stellar as we think. Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin and are each hovering around one hit per inning pitched (Timlin's actually higher than that). Craig Hansen, while impressing of late, has still given up 17 runs in only 18.1 IP. David Aardsma has been effective, though the ability to locate something other than a fastball would be very helpful in the second half, I'd imagine. Jonathan Papelbon has been his usual self, with the exception of those blown saves and all the "work opportunities" that Tito has handed him, much to the chagrin of my entire fantasy roster.

On the front end, the first-place run has been in spite of the fact that Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz have all spent or are currenty spending time on the DL. Justin Masterson and Bartolo Colon have filled in nicely, but the constant makeshift patchjobs are really going to have to end.

Offensively, we've all reveled in Manny's 500th home run hoopla, but we've seen Mike Lowell and now David Ortiz sit on the DL, taking a lot of pop out of the lineup. Julio Lugo has sucked more than anybody should suck at his payrate, while Coco Crisp has only managed to post an OBP that most players would want to improve as a batting average, a whopping .295! The overall effect of all the shuffling and power mitigation hasn't been too terrible, but this team has, as a whole, been lacking in overall clutchiness, if you will.

If you ask me (and so few people read this site, I doubt anyone really will) a big part of the home success has to be chalked up to the Fenway mystique. I can't explain it, but it works.

And they won tonight. That helps.