The Good, The Bad About MLB Communication

Baseball fans across the nation have had over week now to sit and stew over the announcement that Major League Baseball is going to be moving it's Extra Innings package from cable/DirectTV to DirectTV, exclusively. That means thousands of fans currently subscribing to the cable version of the package need to either switch to DirectTV, or do their best to get by on newspaper stories and box scores in USA Today.

The uproar has been noticeable in print and across the airwaves, most noticeably from the cantankerous bunch that is Red Sox Nation. John Kerry, a member of said Nation by default, puffedly announced that he was going to question the representatives of the FCC at a hearing last week, championing the cause of fans everywhere. Instead, Kerry managed to leave the hearing early and fax a letter of concern to the head of the FCC. Attaboy, Johnny.

Really, what's the problem here? It's simple: not everyone can get DirectTV. For some reason or other, cable is far more universal, and DTV has a number of limitations including, but not limited to trees and other immovable objects obstructing dish installation. Baseball, in the interests of picking up the paycheck from signing such an exclusive deal, is betting on the fact that it's loyal fans, who have sworn time and time again to never return to the game, will, in fact, return. And though I hate to say it, they always do.

Additionally, in the eyes of MLB there are two other ways to stay abreast of a distant team: XM satellite radio, which is also subscription based but totally worth the money if you drive a lot, and MLB.com's MLB.tv. Of the two, XM is best, in my humble opinion, due to the 24 hour baseball network and all the great music and news. MLB.tv is pretty poor and full of glitches that make watching a game, any game, a lot of effort.

There's little chance that the protestations of the fans and the misguided posturing of Senator Kerry are going to have any effect. All that remains is to find hope in the little things, like the fact that WTIC 1080 AM Hartford, Connecticut has agreed on a multi-year contract with the Red Sox, keeping them on one of the most recognizeable radio stations in the Northeast. You can get WTIC anywhere from upstate New York, to Ohio, to southern New Jersey and Pennsylvania when the wind and sky are right. That is most definitely a good thing.

Schilling Worth His Weight?

Curt Schilling announced yesterday that his previously announced decision, to retire from baseball at the conclusion of the 2007 season, is no longer valid: he will pitch in 2008. Schilling evidently wants, when you get down to it, two things: to play with a contract somewhere around the level of his current $13 million deal, and to have the terms for 2008 resolved before Spring Training begins in two weeks.

The fact that somebody with Schilling's talent wants to pitch beyond the reach of his current deal should come as no surprise to anyone. The plucky 39 year old went 15-7 with a 3.97 ERA, posting 183 strikeouts in just over 200 IP in the American League, and there's probably a pretty good chance that he'll be able to maintain something along those lines for the next year or so. His K/9 rate, while on the surface not as overwhelming as in the past, is still over 8, and he's carrying a K/BB ratio of more than 6. The most worrisome indicator from last season was the increase to his WHIP, jumping up from 2004's 1.06 to a 1.22 (2005 doesn't count, considering the physical and situational circumstances).

Still, despite the fact that he's probably not going to gas it by many hitters anymore, Schilling's reputation as an obsessive compiler of information on every batter he's ever faced will aid him in the transition from a Roger Clemens-style pitcher to more of a Greg Maddux. He's smart, and he's apparently OK with the fact that he's no longer a hurler, in itself a giant obstacle faced by many pitchers, but one rarely overcome.

If I were the Red Sox, I would likely do what I could to lock him up with a one year contract, and maybe an option. It's unlikely that Schilling is going to post another 20 plus-win season again, but it's just as unlikely that he's going to absolutely collapse. Worst-case scenario, he's the kind of player who's going to push himself to be the absolute best that he can be. When he sucks, he's probably going to be the first one to tell you, an attitude that would be helpful should he ever need to be pushed back in the rotation.

(There is of course, the gushy sentimental reason, and that's the fact that he's the most iconic figure, after David Ortiz, from the 2004 World Series run. It would be a shame to see him running around in another team's uniform.)

It was suggested midway through last season that Schill may be a legitimate contender for the Hall of Fame, but if he were to get in, it would likely only be after a pointedly protracted debate by the voters. Though he's posted over 3000 strikeouts, he's just barely north of the the 200 win mark. If he were to have two great seasons he'd still be over 50 wins short of the magic number 300. His biggest Hall argument comes in the form of his postseason presence, where he's 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA (largely inflated due to his first ALCS game in 2004, before the ankle diagnosis). The most popping postseason numbers? How about 104 Ks in 108 IP, and OBA of .204, and a WHIP of .92? All of them, pretty good. It would be nice to see him enshrined, but it's very much a long shot.

In the end, Schilling is definitely the kind of player that would merit a contract extension before the start of the spring. I have a feeling he'll get it, and if/when he does, it'll be interesting to see just how much his veteran arm (and brain) is worth.

It's Not Nice to Spread Rumors

We're just over two weeks out of Spring Training 2007, J.D. Drew has finally been signed to a more balanced contract, and baseball fans, bloggers, and writers everywhere are searching for something to get them through to the Big Day. That, friends, is where Todd Helton comes in. You know, the Todd Helton that's posted a career OPS of 1.023 in Colorado, smacking close to 300 home runs into the dry Rocky Mountain air in just about 10 years of the big leagues? That's right, he's rumored to be on his way to Boston.

The Rockies, looking to dump the $90 million remaining on Helton's contract, have apparently decided to appeal to the Red Sox desire to land yet another bat to supplement Ramirez, Ortiz, and now, Drew. For what it's worth, I don't really think there's anything to these rumors. The Rockies are asking for Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, and, depending on who you talk to, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. The Sox, ever the negotiators, are instead offering young bucks Mike Lowell and Julian Tavarez.

Sorry, this isn't a baseball rumor, it's the game of MLB 06: The Show I played last night.

The deal doesn't make sense for either team except in the most lopsided of circumstances. The Rockies want to dump payroll and hopefully pick up valuable prospects that will help them compete in the short- and long-term. The Sox want to get rid of Lowell, push Youkilis back to his natural position, acquire an on-base machine, and get the other team to foot the bill. Either way, I can't really see this happening.

Helton really isn't worth the trouble to get him, in this case. While he's been a monster at getting on base for most of his career, his injury history and declining power numbers over the last two years (.534 and .476 SLG in 20005 and 2006, respectively), not to mention the stigma of establishing his hitting legacy at Coors Field all point to an overall negative in his acquisition. Sure, he may be in the top ten active player batting averages, but he's just got too much downside. Oh yea, and he's 32. Even if the Rockies pay the roughly half of what's owed, it's still a beast of a contract, going all the way through the remainder of the first decade of the 21st century.

The Red Sox, as they stand now, are a fairly balanced mix of age and youth, power and speed, pitching and defense. To give up on young pitchers or the system's best positional prospect just to get a player on the wrong side of his peak performance would simply be senseless.

Fun to watch, but senseless.

A word on the Drew signing: I'm starting to feel good about this whole deal, especially because of the clause the front office was able to get put in whereby the last two years of the contract can be voided should significant injury time occur. Drew's still expensive, considering the fact that he has yet to establish a pattern of regular play from season to season, but he promises to be a great number 5 hitter in a lineup where The Man has a gap in his two front teeth and a grin that could light up the New Hampshire sky. Drew will feel pressure, to be sure, but not to carry the team. It could be a breakout year for him.

Closer? Go Fish...In The Potomac

We've signed the national treasure from the other side of the Pacific Ocean, managed to toss in (officially) a talented FA shortstop, and are reportedly close to making the deal with our ex-Dodger right fielder official, pending some contract rewording. The last two days have been filled with a blur of acivity, including the addition of two new bullpen arms: Brendan Donnelly and J.C. Romero. Unfortunately, though the bullpen has now been stuffed with experienced, middle-of-the-road relivers, there still remains one question to be answered: who's going to be closing games for the Sox in 2007?

In my heart of hearts, a part of me still sees Jonathan Papelbon trotting out of the bullpen in the 9th inning, but if you ask the Sox brass, that's not likely to happen. Eric Gagne, the one free agent who has had any sort of success in the closer role, signed a $6 million, one-year deal with the Texas Rangers recently, leaving a trade as the only feasible road to acquiring a closer.

There have been numerous reports that the Red Sox have been targeting one of my favorite players, Chad Cordero of the Washington Nationals. Cordero, who turns 25 next March, has been one of the few pitching studs for the Washington franchise over the last several years. Cordero has averaged just under 77 IP over the last three years, bringing a career WHIP of 1.12, ERA+ of 161, a K/9 ratio of 8.39. His plain old career ERA is swell 2.16. Just a reminder: this kid is my age, and yes, he's good.

So first of all, why would Jumpin' Jim Bowden even consider trading away the Nationals' own bullpen Boy Wonder? Yep, you guessed it: a closer ain't no good 'til you can win yourself a few ballgames, and all indications coming out of D.C. have been that the Nationals won't be improving much on their 71-91 record, particularly after they decided not to trade away Alfonso Soriano at the deadline, only to watch him waltz away to a lucrative free agent contract in the Windy City. Therefore, it stands to reason that the Nats could bag themselve a few young pieces capable of helping them out for more than just the 9th inning of a game.

Wily Mo Peña is likely available, maybe even David Murphy and Manny Delcarmen. Who knows, Charlie Zink could be just what our nation's capital needs to turn around it's performance on the sandlot. Still, this is Jim Bowden we're talking about, one of the game's absolute worst general managers. He's not exactly looking for above-average parts in a trade. Nor should he be, really. Cordero is on the cusp of proving himself an elite closer, and Bowden has to milk that for what it's worth. There comes a point, however, where Bowden should be looking at the overall health of his organization when considering a potential agreement. Cordero will likely not net any major starting prospects which, according to Bill Ladson, who covers the team for MLB.com, is exactly what Bowden is looking for.

Cordero would be the perfect cherry on top of what looks to be an impressive Boston offseason, but prying him away will prove to be incredibly difficult. In the end, a Cordero deal would benefit both sides, it just remains to be seen whether or not Jim Bowden can be dealt with. Otherwise, we'll have to look to the farm at the top of the 9th.

It's Official: Matsuzaka to Boston

(Photo courtesy of the Boston Globe)

At an afternoon press conference held today at Fenway Park, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein introduced the crown jewel of the 2006 offseason: Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Matsuzaka reportedly signed a 6 year, $52 million contract with incentives that can push the value of the deal as high as $60 million.

Thank goodness.

Airborne Matsu

Reports out of Boston's two main papers are claiming that Scott Boras and Daisuke Matsuzaka are currently en route to Boston on John Henry's personal plane. This comes only shortly after last night's reportedly "hurdle-laden" negotiations in California.

Articles that surfaced this morning had two potential figures to greet the morning cup of coffee. The Sox were apparently offering $48 million over six years, while for Boras's part there was reportedly an offer of $66 million over the same amount of time. It would be great to get Matsu signed for the former deal, but the latter is certainly about market value for, say Gil Meche. For a difference of roughly $3 million, this is definitely a deal that should get done.

I'm glad to see this turned around.

Why Boras Is Evil and Plan B

According to the Globe's Gordon Edes, there has been zero progress on the Matsuzaka front, meaning that (in my humble opinion) the door is now, officially, closed. It is believed that once the Red Sox board John Henry's private jet bound for Boston the talks will cease, as there will no longer be time to get a physical.

Before I get to the reason I chose the above title, I'd just like to say that there's one thing that's really sticking in my craw: Scott Boras. No, it's not that he's trying to get the most for his player, nor is it that the negotiations are going down to the wire. What really bothers me is Boras's complete disregard for fair play. By all accounts, the Red Sox don't even know if Boras has told Matsuzaka about their offers. Boras has made no official counteroffer, saying only in his press conference last night that his player is worth in excess of $100 million, despite never pitching in the majors. The Red Sox have atypically gone out of their way, it seems, to demonstrate just how serious they are about signing the young pitcher. They flew to California of their own volition just to try and get in touch with the player they're supposed to be negotiating for, and even though Boras promised a meeting between front office brass and Daisuke, no such meeting has taken place. In fact, Matsuzaka has been held out of the negotiations on purpose.

This is turning into Boras's own personal crusade to gain attention for himself, going so far as to make crass statements like "In Japan he's know as the national treasure, [in the United States] he''ll be known as Fort Knox." That's just plain rude, and not to the Sox. By all accounts there is a certain etiquette that must be adhered to when dealing with a foreign culture, and Boras has done everything in his power to ignore it, at least publicly. Sure, this is frustrating because I'm a Sox fan who wants Matsuzaka in the rotation, but it's made doubly so because it feels like only one person showed up to the poker table with the intention of playing.

Now, on to Plan B.

Well, that's a good question. There was never any sparkling free agent talent on the market to begin with (Barry Zito, in my opinion, would be a terrible fit for the Sox), and any team with an arm to hang 15 wins on is holding on for dear life. At this point, I really think it would be in the best interests of the team to just put Lester (health permitting) and Papelbon in the rotation and hope for the best. There's still the possibiliy that Brad Penny could be pried from the Dodgers for Manny Ramirez, but unless Jonathan Broxton, Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier are included, I'd rather hold on to the fickle slugger.

The limited options simply demonstrates how important signing Matsuzaka is. He's not just a pretty face at the top of the rotation for the next 5 or 6 years, he's the keystone for the next 2.

Nothing to See Here

No, seriously, there's nothing to see here. Scott Boras held a press conference from his Newport Beach, CA at 9 pm EST to announce, essentially, that unless the Red Sox pony up a $100 million contract over the next 6 years, Matsuzaka will go back to Japan and pitch. There's really nothing new here. We've known for some time that Boras is really trying to sell the whole "this is a national treasure" schtick, but to put these kinds of numbers to it makes the whole ordeal a bit unreal. There's no way the Sox can justify paying almost $17 million over 6 years to a pitcher who's never even been to Massachussetts.

To make sure their position is clear, the Red Sox are reportedly preparing to hold their own press conference later this evening. Nobody knows what they could have to announce, considering the first conference was essentially worthless. In any case, you can read the Associated Press article on the Boras new conference here:

Red Sox to Meet With Matsuzaka's Agent

(AP Photo)

THUMP! "Here's the Party Line..."

Bill Mueller on J.D.Drew

"I tell you what, he's a great player, a great individual, and a character guy. Any left-handed bat like his, the way he uses the whole field, he could have great success there. Unfortunately for us, he went somewhere else, which is his option. The market is great and he took advantage of it.

"Boston is such a great, great, great place to play. It's hard for me to say don't go to Boston because I think everybody should be able to experience playing in Boston. It's the Mecca of the game."

"You definitely have to have a certain mentality going in. The way J.D. is, he goes about business the way I do. Usually when people have that kind of personality, they do fine because they go out there and play their hearts out." (the fantastic Rob Bradford, The Eagle Tribune)

Pending a physical, it looks like J.D. Drew will be patrolling right field for the Red Sox in 2007. According to Boy Wonder GM Theo Epstein, being interviewed at this second on XM Radio. It is apparently a 5 year, $70 million deal, though there has been no confirmation as to the nature of that fifth year (guaranteed or option-based).

The word on the street is that Drew is totally a nancy in the clubhouse, and everyone from Orestes Destrade to Santa Claus is down on the guy, myself included. I know the rumors have him as being prone to "phantom injuries", but in reality there's nothing outside of rumours and "clubhouse sources" to back up these accusations. I feel that, as a loyal Red Sox fan stuck in the middle of the long, cold winter, it's time to get excited about something. Oh yea, and if Peter Gammons is a fan of this guy, I'm a fan of this guy.

Here's another way to look at the Drew deal. This is a market in which Gary Matthews (career .263/.336/.419) received $10 million over 5 years from the Angels, and Alfonso Soriano got roughly $17 million over 8 years (career .280/.325/.510). Compared to those guys, Drew (career .286/.393/.512) appears to be getting a rather reasonable *cough* deal.

The five year contract length really sticks in my craw, because I'm not certain how well Drew is going to age. Could be that three years from now Drew ends up being our left fielder, where he doesn't need as much mobility. When you think about it, this may end up as a case of overpaying, but I don't think it's serious enough to claim this deal is absolutely godawful. We needed a bat in right field, we got a bat in right field, and one of the better ones in the league.

Along the same lines, this just in: the Red Sox have also reportedly agreed to a 4 year contract worth $36 million dollars with FA shortstop Julio Lugo. This is really one of those situations that likely could have been avoided in 2005 before the Renteria fiasco, but the we needed a shortstop, and after Lugo, it was something like Chris Gomez as the next most desireable player.

With the Lugo signing, I think the likelihood of Manny being traded decreases significantly, and the possibility of signing a FA closer goes up a chunk. Assuming Manny sticks around, here's what the first 5 spots in our lineup would look like, based on last year's numbers.

Youkilis .279/.381/.429
Lugo .308/.373/.498 (in TB, not in LA)
Ortiz .287/.413/.636
Ramirez .321/.439/.619
Drew .283/.393/.498

Frankly, that's pretty good. The Sox batted .269/.351/.435 as a team last year and left more men on base than any other team in the major leagues. (Interestingly, despite the fact that they batted so terribly, they led the majors in total walks last year, clocking in at 672 for the season, 22 more than the second place team, Oakland.) A top five like the one above would make them a more well-rounded likeup, benefiting greatly from the addition of Lugo's speed on the basepaths.

Both of these reported deals are contingent on physicals, so nothing is set in stone as of the time of this posting. Still, it's nice to see the Sox actually move forward instead of spinning their wheels and trying to plug holes with bargain parts (see: Mohr, Dustin and Harris, Willie).

Nixon Not Offered Arbitration

Midnight of last night was the deadline for major league teams to offer arbitration to all eligible free agents. For those who are unclear, if a team offers a player arbitration and that player then decides to sign with a different team as a free agent, the original arb-offering team is given compensatory draft picks based on the player's rating from the Elias Sport Bureau. The Red Sox only offered arbitration to one player this year: reliever and one-time closer Keith Foulke. It is believed that Foulke is nearing a contract with the Cleveland Indians, nearer, say than any of the players who failed to receive arbitration offers: Mark Loretta, Doug Mirabelli, and Trot Nixon.

The big scandal here is the fact that Nixon, a first-round draft pick by Lou Gorman's 1993 front office, was not given the option of arbitration. Consensus around the the educated halls of the Hub has it that Trot will not and should not be back in right field. At least, not as a starter.

G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+-
  2    4    2    2   1  0   0    0  0   1  .500  .500  .750
 13   27    3    7   1  0   0    0  1   3  .259  .286  .296
124  381   67  103  22  5  15   52 53  75  .270  .357  .472
123  427   66  118  27  8  12   60 63  85  .276  .368  .461
148  535  100  150  31  4  27   88 79 113  .280  .376  .505
152  532   81  136  36  3  24   94 65 109  .256  .338  .470
134  441   81  135  24  6  28   87 65  96  .306  .396  .578
 48  149   24   47   9  1   6   23 15  24  .315  .377  .510
124  408   64  112  29  1  13   67 53  59  .275  .357  .446
114  381   59  102  24  0   8   52 60  56  .268  .373  .394
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+-
982 3285  547  912 204 28 133  523 454 621 .278  .366  .478

Nixon is not exactly a knock-the-cover-off-the-ball corner outfielder, but he's no slouch, either. We're all familiar with his season in 2003, where he hit .306/.396/.598, crushing 28 HR and knocked in 87 RBI. The 2003 season also wrapped up a three-year stretch where Nixon clubbed a total of 79 HR, his only serious power surge. He has been incredibly fragile, playing 130 games in only 3 seasons, his "home run years," and it's this fragility that has come to characterize everybody's favorite Dirt Dog.

Nixon's attitude on the field, deference in front of the cameras and fans, and his efforts in the non-profit community have had a profound impact on everybody who follows the Sox. The outrage that has bubbled to the surface in the last few days (and it's been muted, to be sure) swirls not so much around the on-field performance (which has been commendable), but around his personality. Add to this mix the seemingly inevitable signing of J.D. Drew, an equally fragile outfielder, wearing number 7, who has managed to flash better power numbers, at an outlandish 4 years, $56 million dollars (or somewhere near there), and you have a controversy.

The fact of the matter is that Nixon has been unreliable in right field. I love him as much as anybody, and the thought of him in another uniform is hard to stomach. I have also, however, come to be just as comfortable with Gabe Kapler or Wily Mo Peña in right field as I have Nixon. Offering arbitration to a player that fragile would be akin to paying $7 million for 3 months of average offensive performance (and zero production against lefties). Whatever I or the pundits may say about Drew's clubhouse presence, it is nothing but spectulation, and his performance at the plate and in the field can't really be discredited. It's a shame that Trot may be gone, but it looks as if we'll have an exceptional player in right field in his stead (provided he stays healthy.)

24:00:00

With the dollars and cents flying every which way these days, what is a sensible general manager to do?

Hang on to Manny Ramirez, that's what.

The game is awash in money, according to numerous sources, and it's evident in the high contracts going around. Juan Pierre is in no way worth the 5 year, $44 million contract he received from the Dodgers, nor is Gary Matthews, Jr. worth the 5 years, $50 million he received from the Angels. Danys Baez? How about 3 years $19 million? The market is at least giving the appearance of having gone insane, and within the one month of the World Series ending in St. Louis, all of the major sluggers have been signed. Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Aramis Ramirez are locked up, each at an exorbitant sum. Still, there are teams who need sluggers, and that appears to be one thing the Red Sox have in excess.

Enter Manny Ramirez and his annual trade requests. With only two years remaining on his enormous contract, Ramirez seems to almost be a bargain to the power-hungry GM. Reports have him going everywhere from Baltimore to San Francisco and everywhere in between. This could finally be the moment the front office has been waiting for, the moment they dump the future Hall of Famer and sign J.D. Drew to piss everybody off with his girly-man ways.

The Red Sox should only consider trading Ramirez if they were to receive a solid package that included a shortstop, potential closer, and several other prospects. It's a lot, I know, but here's the thing: this guy is one his way to Cooperstown. Annoying? Yes. Bitchy? Only according to the Knights of the Keyboard. Defensive liability? Absolutely. Replaceable? Remains to be seen. While I was driving home tonight I fantasized about a deal where the Sox would send Ramirez and Coco Crisp to the Orioles and receive Miguel Tejada and Chris Ray in return. They could stick Wily Mo Peña in left field and Jacoby Ellsbury or David Murphy in center field, and then put the inevitable newest Red Sox, J.D. Drew, in right field. Though both Murphy and Ellsbury are untested, chances are they'd be a defensive upgrade over Crisp. Drew is certainly an upgrade over Nixon, and Peña is defensively comprable to Ramirez. Offensively, there would be question marks outside of Drew and Tejada, but the addition of Ray to the bullpen would likely outweigh the downsides.

The above paragraph is nothing more than the rush hour fantasy of a bored, decaffeinated fanboy, but they do reflect how complicated this question is. Manny Ramirez is hard to replace. His age, durability and attitude have loads of writers and New Englanders pushing the "EJECT" button. He's a thorn. but he's our thorn. It would require a killer package, in my opinion, to move #24 from his place in front of the Green Monster.

The reports say we could know as soon as Saturday, so we'll just have to wait until then.

BBWAA Has a Pulse: Morneau MVP

The Baseball Writers' Association of America showed rare signs of life today when they voted the Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau the 2007 American League MVP. They got it wrong, of course, as Morneau wasn't really even the most valuable player on his own team (it was Joltin' Joe Mauer), but the important thing is that Derek Jeter didn't win.

Before you start to harp on me for being a Yankee hater, let me say that Jeter had a killer year in 2006. He just wasn't, unfortunately, the MVP. If you take Jeter out of the Yankee lineup, they still make the postseason. Do the same with Mauer or even Morneau, and there's no way the Twins show up in October. I did some overly simple math today at work to show my students the basics arguments against voting for Jeter based solely on the fact he's Derek Jeter:

MIN: AVG OBP SLG OPS

Luis Castillo 0.296 0.358 0.370 0.728
Nick Punto 0.290 0.352 0.373 0.725
MAUER 0.347 0.429 0.507 0.936
Michael Cuddyer 0.284 0.362 0.504 0.866
MORNEAU xxx/xxx/xxx
Torii Hunter 0.278 0.336 0.490 0.826
Rondell White 0.246 0.276 0.365 0.641
Jason Tyner 0.312 0.345 0.353 0.698
Jason Bartlett 0.309 0.367 0.393 0.760

W/o Morneau 0.295 0.353 0.419 0.773


Luis Castillo 0.296 0.358 0.370 0.728
Nick Punto 0.290 0.352 0.373 0.725
MAUER xxx/xxx/xxx
Michael Cuddyer 0.284 0.362 0.504 0.866
MORNEAU 0.321 0.375 0.559 0.934
Torii Hunter 0.278 0.336 0.490 0.826
Rondell White 0.246 0.276 0.365 0.641
Jason Tyner 0.312 0.345 0.353 0.698
Jason Bartlett 0.309 0.367 0.393 0.760

Without Mauer 0.292 0.346 0.426 0.772

NYY:

Johnny Damon 0.285 0.359 0.482 0.841
JETER xxx/xxx/xxx
Jason Giambi 0.253 0.413 0.448 0.861
Alex Rodriguez 0.290 0.392 0.523 0.915
Jorge Posada 0.277 0.374 0.492 0.866
Robinson Cano 0.342 0.365 0.525 0.890
Bobby Abreu 0.297 0.424 0.462 0.886
Melky Cabrera 0.280 0.360 0.391 0.751
Bernie Williams 0.281 0.332 0.436 0.768

W/o Jeter: 0.288 0.377 0.470 0.847

Here's the basic point: if you take Jeter out of the Yankee lineup, even without Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffied, the "average" Yankee hitter is still much better than the average Minnesota hitter. As I said before, Jeter isn't as valuable to the Yankees as Mauer and Morneau to the Twins.

There's more to this argument than that, as in, more numbers to toss about, but I have to roll for this holiday weekend, and outside of maybe a quick post, I'll see everyone on the other side. Happy Thanksgiving.

Bill Mueller Retires

Number 11 was my favorite. He played only three short years for the Red Sox, but in the three seasons he spent with the Olde Towne Team Mueller added an American League Batting Title and World Series ring to his trophy case. After his 2005 season, Mueller and the Sox went their seperate ways, and Bill signed a 2 year deal worth $9.5 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, joining former Sox Grady Little, Derek Lowe, and Nomar Garciaparra in Dodger blue.

The Dodgers are one of Baseball's most storied franchises, and as one of the classiest players I have ever seen, Mueller appeared to be headed to do Dodger fans proud.

Except for those knees of his. For the third time in three years, Mueller had his knees operated on, though the prognosis for recovery from the 2006 injury was the bleakest he had faced yet. Though there was little hope for recovery, Mueller waited until today, November 17, 2006, to announce his retirement from baseball.

Though he will not be suiting up for the Dodgers in the spring, he will be working for them in the front office, serving as some sort of special assistant to friend and Dodger general manager Ned Colletti.

Mueller embodied the image of the scrappy, old-timey ballplayer. Coming in at 5'9", the story of days and days spent digging balls out of the infield dirt came to light during the 2004 World Series, just after he drove home Dave Roberts with an RBI base hit to tie the game. His career line reads .292/.373/.425, an impressive line for someone of his stature.

Always my favorite.

Poor Man Joe

The winners of the Manager of the Year award for both leagues were announced today, and to nobody's surprise it was Jim Leyland of Detroit and Joe Girardi, formerly of Florida, who took home the honors. Yea, you read that right, formerly of Florida. Apparently the Marlins decided that landing a 78-84 season with a team payroll under $20 million just wasn't good enough for the top tastes of player-bashing art dealer Jeffrey Loria. Yeesh.

Congratulations, Joe, here's hoping you get back on the field soon.

Official: Matsuzaka to Speak with Boston

Several minutes ago, Major League Baseball and the Boston Red Sox had a brief (and I mean brief) press conference to announce that the winning bid, accepted by the Seibu Lions of Japan, had indeed been submitted by the Sox. After the official representative of MLB made himself look silly with by butchering Daisuke Matsuzaka's name, Theo Epstein came on the horn and gave the usual "Great player, etc" but maintained the tight-lipped composure of the front office over the last year. There were no specifics revealed about the bidding process, and Theo (smartly) declined to discuss where they foresaw Matsuzaka's place on the team.

I don't believe any of the conspiracies claiming Boston's bid is just to block. There is legitimate interest in this pitcher, and as explained before, there should be.

On a more bitter note: Right after the announcement, I got to hear a talk show host say "Boston is making a complete mockery of the whole process," simply because they refuse to talk to the media about the details. The Yankees, it was claimed, will at least speak to you (the media). C'mon now, just silly.

Here's the link: Red Sox win Matsuzaka Sweepstakes

Et Tu, Brute?

That's basically what I'm hearing all over the media. Now that people actually believe what Buster Olney reported on Friday concerning the Red Sox bid for Matsuzaka, it's all anyone can do to call it preposterous and cartoonish. To throw that much money at an untested player, they say, is ridiculous. To many, this has become another example of the Red Sox trying to be like the Yankees... except that when they Yankees do it they do it with *gag* Yankee Pride.

Here's the thing: $40 million is a ton of money to spend on a posting fee, but chances are the actual contract is going to be more reasonable than that. Matsuzaka represents the best pitching option on the market, even before he's thrown a pitch at the major league level. The next best option is Barry Zito, a free agent expected to earn some serious coin, probably more than Matsuzaka in actual contract value.

ZITO: 2003-2006 MLB
W L IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
14 12 231.7 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 4.26 129 1.183
11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 4.68 105 1.394
14 13 228.3 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 4.49 116 1.200
16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 4.43 116 1.403

Outside of his actual statistics, Zito is a soft-tossing lefty whose fastball has been losing velocity steadily over the last couple years. At 28, it's unlikely that Zito is going to see any sort of improvement in his fastball. Additionally, since Rick Peterson left the A's as pitching coach in 2003, his stats have declined: his WHIP has gone up, his strikeouts have gone down, and in 2006 he allowed the second highest hit total in his career. Zito is, no question, the best free agent pitcher in the American market, and he is going to receive a contract that reflects that value.

With Matsuzaka, the Sox would pick up an even better pitcher, two years younger:

MATSUZAKA, DAISUKE: NPB 1999-2005
W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
16 5 2.60 180.0 124 55 52 14 151 6.20 0.70 4.35 7.55 1.17
14 7 3.97 167.2 132 85 74 12 95 144 7.09 0.64 5.10 7.73 1.35
6 2 3.68 73.1 60 30 30 13 15 78 7.36 1.60 1.84 9.57 1.02
16 7 2.83 194.0 165 71 61 13 63 215 7.65 0.60 2.92 9.97 1.18
10 6 2.90 146.0 127 50 47 7 42 127 7.83 0.43 2.59 7.83 1.16
14 13 2.30 215.0 172 63 55 13 49 226 7.20 0.54 2.05 9.46 1.03

Those are some impressive numbers. A WHIP that only passes 1.20 once, which also happened to be in the one season where his ERA passed 3.5. He absolutely eclipses Zito in K9, (where Zito averages about 6.9, versus Matsu's is roughly 8.7). They speak for themselves.

The point of the matter is this: yes, it's a lot of money to spend, yes, he's untested; but, he's still the best FA option out there. Starting pitching is at an absolute premium, and I'd guess that one would be hard-pressed to find a baseball fan upset were a pitcher of Matsuzaka's caliber to come to their team, the Yankees included.

Worst case scenario, the bid is returned due to failure to sign a contract. Even then, I wouldn't see it as a systematic failure of the posting process, or of the Red Sox lacking any desire to finish the deal. The bid is just the bid. Once it's separated from the actual player, the Red Sox (or any team) would be entirely justified to setting a dollar amount to Matsuzaka. There's no need to break the bank if he's not going to be reasonable.

On a homer note, it's pretty ridiculous that we're hearing so much about the Red Sox making a move that appears to be "bad for baseball." Were it to be the Yankees, I feel that most pundit would be clamoring about how Steinbrenner would just be showing Yankee fans his desire to win. It's frustrating, is all.

Good for the Red Sox front office for taking the chance. It's well worth it.

At Least They're On My Fantasy Team

Major League Baseball announced the American and National League Rookies of the Year, and to nobody's surprise, it was Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers who came away with the most votes. After a consistantly dominant rookie year, in which his primary competitors (Minnesota's Francisco Liriano and our very own Jonathan Papelbon) were shut down before the season's end, Verlander showed the mainstream baseball fans exactly what all the geeks had been raving about.

Less decisive was the awarding of RotY honors to ex-Red Sox and current Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez was up against stiff competition on his own team, let alone the threats by Los Angeles' Russell Martin and Washington's Ryan Zimmerman. Dan Uggla and Josh Johnson, both of the Marlins, had impressive rookie year postings.

In seeing Ramirez take home top rookie honors, it's not surprising that the debate over the merits of the Josh Beckett trade last offseason has found incredibly effective fuel. Would Ramirez have been as dominant in the American League? In my opinion, probably not.



RAMIREZ, HANLEY: 2006 MLB
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
158 633 119 185 46 11 17 59 51 15 56 128 .292 .353 .480

His batting line is impressive. Posting .292/.353/.480 with 17 long balls in what essentially looked to be a AAAA lineup speaks volumes to Ramirez's abilities as a hitter. Then again, so do his 128 SO in 633 ABs. It stands to reason that Ramirez reaped the benefits of playing in the National League, where the fastball is used far more often than the breaking pitches, and where AL hitters typically find their numbers improving after a league change. In the AL, Ramirez would've had to adapt to the breaking balls and the best pitchers in all of baseball. His success would've been anything but a sure thing.

Additionally, Ramirez swiped an eye-popping 51 bases, being caught only 15 times, for a 77% SB%. Without a doubt, this talent would've gone unused. The Red Sox are pitiful on the basepaths: the entire team only managed to swipe 51 bags, getting caught 23 times. Not pretty.

Undoubtedly, Ramirez had a great rookie year. But just like every great year in the National League, it likely wouldn't stand the test in the Junior Circuit.

Boston the Winning Bid?

As you may have heard by this point, Vermont native and ESPN baseball analyst Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox may have entered in the top bid for Daisuke Matsuzake, with the amount falling somewhere in the $38 to $45 million range. Sure, it may seem like a ton of money, but I really do think it would be a worthwhile acquisition. A number of message boarders have mentioned the desire to get a foot in the door of the evolving Asian market, China in particular. Though Matsuzaka is Japanese, the Red Sox need to make a strong push to earn the name recognition that a team like the Yankees has in the States, and the Sox themselves currently have in the Dominican Republic. There have been no other reports of the Sox winning the bidding, though I have heard of both the Diamondbacks and the Phillies as possible winners. I hope Olney's right, for a change. Where's Peter Gammons' opinion when you need it?

Second Coming of J.D.?

The answer to that question is an emphatic "No." J.D. Drew opted out of the final three years of his contract with the Dodgers today, forsaking a guaranteed $33 million in order to enter the free agent market.

A first round pick by the St. Louis Cardinals, Drew is most recently known for his 2004 season in Atlanta, cranking out 31 home runs and 93 RBI with a line of .305/.436/.569. Over the last two seasons in L.A., Drew put up 35 dingers and 135 RBI, much of it due to an inability to stay healthy in 2005. He's primarily a right fielder, and since the Red Sox are looking to replace Trot in 2007, Drew automatically enters the equation.

Stay away. Let's look at the career number of the two outfielders:

DREW, 9 seasons:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
960 3161 605 905 160 33 162 509 74 26 529 685 .286 .393 .512

NIXON, 10 seasons:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
982 3285 547 912 204 28 133 523 29 13 454 621 .278 .366 .478

In the numbers, Drew has only really been marginally better than Nixon, has shared Nixon's proclivity for time on the disabled list, yet has managed to out earn Nixon by more than $11 million. In the clubhouse, they couldn't be more different. Nixon's reputation, even outside of Boston, tags him as being a hard-nosed, rough and tumble, team-first kind of player. He's never been the center of any sort of clubhouse controversy, and has garnered only the highest praise from his managers. To the contrary, Drew is known as somewhat of a cruiser, getting by on his talent and never really pushing himself to the limit. He's known for not pushing himself to play through injuries, and managed to have his difficulties with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa documented in the book Three Nights in August.

There'd be no reason for the Sox to pursue a less personable and more expensive outfielder when we can can the same guy for significantly less. Drew's not worth the effort.

MATSUZAKA UPDATE: Nothing. MLB offices are closed for the day. There's probably a good chance we'll hear something tomorrow, though I have nothing concrete to base that assertion on.

Barfield to the Tribe

Since the Democrats look to have (thank God) gained both the House and Senate in what looks to be a serious electoral coup, maybe, just maybe, the Red Sox are serious contenders in this bidding war for Matsuzaka. The deadline to submit an offer was today at 5 PM EST, but the Seibu Lions technically have until Tuesday to decide whether or not to accept the winning bid. Life I've said before, and a number of people over at one of them fancy-schmancy message boards, Sons of Sam Horn, there's nothing to lose on Matsuzaka other than money.

In other news, the Cleveland traded away infielder Kevin Kouzmanoff and reliever Andrew Brown for National League Rookie of the Year contender Josh Barfield. A look at their stats:

BARFIELD
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
150 539 72 151 32 3 13 58 21 5 30 81 .280 .318 .423

KOUZMANOFF (AAA)
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
27 102 22 36 9 0 7 20 2 1 10 12 .353 .409 .647

BROWN (AAA)
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG
5 4 2.60 39 0 0 0 5 62.1 52 21 18 5 36 53 .228

Neither of the Indians prospects have seen legitimate time above AAA, though Kouzmanoff, in typical rookie fashion, had a few dramatic home runs in The Show that helped people look past his miserable stats. Still, both sets of minor league stats are impressive, if you can ignore the small sample size. Kouzmanoff seems to pop http://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.gifwith power hitter potential, so if he can translate those to the big leagues, he would be a valuable asset for the Padres at a position where they're not too well stacked. Brown, should he be able to bring his walks down a bit, would contribute to their bullpen as well. Batters aren't putting good wood on the ball against him, and he's producing his fair share of swings and misses in the box.

Still, the Padres are giving up a legitimate player in Barfield. While he's not a serious offensive threat, he is multi-dimensional. You'll hear about his speed (21 SB and only 5 CS), but what jumps out the most to me is his low number of strikeouts (81) in almost 600 ABs. The AL will likely prove difficult for him, but put him in a lineup with the likes of Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez and he'll probably find himself challenged a bit more than in San Diego.

An interesting move here in the early going.

EARLY MORNING EDIT: The San Deigo Union-Tribune has an interesting article with a follow up thought that I hadn't even considered: Mark Loretta is a free agent, and his family is still in San Diego. Granted, given the fact that the Padres seem to be looking to bolster their offense (seen in the trade of Barfield and the letting go of Dave Roberts), Mark Loretta might not be the kind of second baseman they have in mind. Kevin Towers has explicitly mentioned a 2B of "star quality" which sounds surprisingly like "Alfonso Soriano", but should Towers fail to bring the big bat, Loretta would provide, at the very least, a stable alternative.

Cora Agrees in Principle, Club Declines Foulke's Option

On this night of utter speculation, let's speculate some more. It's being reported that Alex Cora has confirmed agreeing to a 2 year deal with the Sox, though any details beyond that have yet to be revealed. What does it mean for the bench? Offensively, not much, as Cora is pretty poor with the stick. He is, however, an asset defensively, and as long as he doesn't get too many ABs, his attitude and presence will be welcomed.

In this same vein, the Sox declined their part of the $7.5 million mutual option on Keith Foulke's contract today. Foulke has the ability to exercise his portion, worth $3.75 million, or decline and receive a $1.5 million buyout. If I had to guess, Foulke will probably exercise his option (that is, if his agent is doing his job), as he's not likely to land anything better outside of Boston. The front office's decision was certainly a smart one, considering his injury history over the last 2 seasons. Were he to come back, it wouldn't be the worst thing ever, as they'd save close to $4 million and have a potential ace reliever in the cards.

Make It Happen: Matsuzaka to Boston

"Now pitching for the Red Sox, number 18, Daisuke Matsuzaka."

Hey, I can dream can't I? The deadline for teams to submit their posting bids to Major League Baseball is this upcoming Wednesday, November 8. As a result, there are more rumors flying through the airwaves and journalistic medium than flies around Sammy Sosa's career: "The Mariners are in, but wait, now they're out. The Rangers are in, and so are the Red Sox, but it doesn't matter because everybody knows he's going the Yankees." And so it goes, until we actually find out who has earned the rights to *gulp* negotiate with Matsuzaka and his super agent, Scott Boras.

Read that name at the end of the last sentence again, and it's clear that this whole process is going to cost some team a lot of money. The bidding process alone is going to cost someone a wad of cash, unless there's collusion of some sort and they all agree to bid less than $100 bucks. That would be funny. But, I digress. This is going to be an expensive process, something most front offices are hesitant to undergo when the player has yet to perform at the level of your league and a number of similar players have busted upon reaching these shores. Still, this is a chance to do what everybody needs: upgrade the starting staff and not give up the best prospects to get it. It's for that very reason that I think the Red Sox should try their gosh-darnedest to acquire Matsuzaka.

The one thing everybody can agree on is that pitching wins championships, and that quality pitching is hard to come by. The cheapest option is to develop it within your own system, but that takes time and patience, something some clubs don't have, especially if they're trying to make the most of their fanbase. The other options are to either trade for a top starter, or jump headlong into the typically shallow free agent pool and overpay for the hottest thing going. Trading prospects doesn't seem like a bad idea until you acquire Josh Beckett and watch your shortstop prospect vie for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, and your pitcher toss MLB's first no-hitter in 2 years. Free agency, unfortunately, is just as bad. As the Providence Journal's Sean McAdam write for ESPN.com, free agency isn't looking so hot lately, with more and more clubs doing what they can to lock up young pitchers before they hit the market, which means that somebody overpays for guys who don't deserve the big bucks.

Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt are the big names in the 2006 offseason, but neither, in my opinion, would be a good fit for the Red Sox. They're going to demand too much money, and they're starting to decline, visibily, in some cases. Matsuzaka is young enough to be worth a multi-year investment, and according to the scouts, he's the real deal. If the Sox could lock him up, that would be stellar. Even if he doesn't post his numbers from the Seibu Lions, there's a good chance the the numbers he post will make him very valuable. Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann wrote an interesting piece called "Putting a Price on Matsuzaka," in which he mentions using some sort of metric to help convert Matsuzaka's Japanese stats into some sort of general MLB equivalent. The basic conclusion? He's probably worth it.

The biggest thing going for Daisuke is his age. Zito and Schmidt are a few years older, and there is a noticeable movement in baseball to lock up players as they approach their upside, not necessarily when they're in the middle of it. Of course, that's not to say the a 28 year old Barry Zito is a wash, but a 26 year old Matsuzaka seems a bit more tantalizing to a team looking to build a rotation for the next handful of years.

It's going to be an expensive venture, to be sure, but this is a golden opportunity for the Red Sox and any like-minded team. Forget Julio Lugo and kick the tires on the latest Japanese trend. Bring Daisuke Matsuzaka to Boston.

(Photo courtesy of Flickr.com and user Michiyo196.)