Is It OK To Come Out Now?

There are a lot of things to be said about the 2006 season. Although the season technically ended today with a blowout of a rainout, it's been over for some time. But, it's been some time since the Red Sox have shown any signs of life, and a resigned Nation has taken to looking towards next year, including yours truly. Where to start? What to discuss? Is there anyone to blame? What can be done for next year?

For now, let's consider the broader angles. This was a trying season. If 2004 was 'The Party', and 2005 was the 'The Hangover', then 2006 was undoubtedly 'That Lingering Feeling You Get After A Hangover, That Doesn't Really Hurt, But Reminds You The Hangover Was, At One Point, There'. Did you get all that? This was the year where we still remembered 2004, but all the celebrations, hand pounds, sparkling jerseys and myriad fan gear began to lose their luster. For the first half of the year, the Sox did what we wanted them to do: first place, division lead for most of the time, and more late-inning heroics than you can shake a stick at. So, what happened?

The trading deadline, that's what.

It's nothing you can quantify, but it is a common assertion that all sports revolve around momentum. Baseball is no different. When the trading deadline came around, the Sox were barely above water, and the Yankees appeared to be steadying themselves with newfound confidence on their sea legs. The pundits preached and we believed Boston wouldn't make any major move, and we were right. Unfortunately, nobody really believed that the Yankees would land somebody like Bobby Abreu. Wait a second, check that. Nobody believed the Phillies were stupid. Or, at least, that stupid.

So, anyways, when the Bombers landed the big fish and the Pilgrims pulled up an empty hook (sorry). The times had changed. Injuries hit, hit again, and again, and again. The bench and stray pickups made by the front office failed to answer the call consistently, if at all, and our prized rookies began to hit the expected bumps in the road. It was a mountain of adversity impossible for all but the deepest of teams to overcome. And so, slipping somewhere near the top, the Olde Towne Team began a snowball's journey down the side of that mountain until they ended up where they are now: the third place team in a division of overpaid mashers.

What has this done for the fans? Well, for starters, tickets have been easier to acquire. Eric Wilbur's aptly named "Pink Hats" seem to have lost a good chunk of their interest, and finger pointing, lots of finger pointing, has becoming the Nation's own one-fingered salute. It's Theo's fault, it's Manny's fault, it's Way Back Beckett's fault, it's Lucchino's fault... everyone has a share of the blame.

In truth, it's Eptstein himself who manages to find the appropriate balance of perspective:

"I think two separate factors contributed to our second-half collapse," Epstein said Saturday in an interview with the Courant. "First, we had an imperfect team: weaknesses that we masked in the first half but were revealed in second half of the season. Second, we had a series of injuries to key players that was devastating. Those two factors both contributed, but the second factor should not disguise the existence of the first." (Hartford Courant, Sunday, October 1)

One side of the fan base jumps all over the 'selfish' general manager and his convoluted plan for a long-term overhaul of the existing Red Sox modus operandi. Long term? Who gives a hoot about 2010, when a payroll of just over $131 million will get us just shy of second place and a Vlad Guerrero-esque stone's throw from the top spot? And just what has this plan gotten us so far? Nothing but overworked, overexposed rookies and patchwork pitching. The other side of the fan base laments the work of the cruel Fates, spinning the season's end before the schedule entered the final third. Injuries, the bane of every would-be playoff contender and each also-ran, plagued this team like no other. There was no way they could be expected to compete.

Both are right, and both are wrong. We won't really know until this offseason gets underway after the World Series just what direction we'll be leaning towards in 2007. Odds are we're going to see a much younger team on the field next year, and I'd be willing to bet on heavier pursuit of free agents and less willingness to dump prospects for current stars.

It is OK to come out now, after all. The mind-numbing repetition of this season's problems have, for the moment, abated, and the offseason will now allow those of us who forced distance from the field upon ourselves for the last month to reenter the arena slowly, and painlessly.

Man, I can't wait for 2007, can you?

A Little Light On This Subject

Baseball has a new no-hitter, breaking a two year dought, and it was thrown by someone close to the Red Sox and their organization. Anibal Sanchez, throw-in for the Marlins in the Josh Beckett deal, tossed a beauty for the fish and an empty house last night, recording his milestone in an outing against the Diamondbacks.

Remember him? He was supposed to be borderline. Or was he?

This is basically insult to the myriad injuries that the Red Sox have attempted to weather over the last month and a half. Sanchez's success, as well as the success of fellow Marlin Hanley Ramirez, Padre standout Cla Meredith, and the Bucs' likely National League batting champion, Freddy Sanchez, is indicative of the kind of murmuring that's going on all over New England.

Is Theo as great as we think?

The answer, of course, is "We don't know." It's still too early to pass judgement on the products of Epstein's long-term plan. Josh Beckett, in the eyes of most, is going to be a different pitcher in 2007. Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, and Dustin Pedroia are likely going to get better as well. It is not much of a stretch to say that the success of these former Sox is due, in large part, to two things that are very related to one another. Actually, check that. Their success is due to one thing: the National League.

To take nothing away from each of those players, for their accomplishments are nothing to brush aside, the American League is, quite simply, better. One need do nothing but look at the interleague record from this year, the general state of the NL East, and at the last couple World Series champions to see proof of this. In the fishbowl that is Boston, Massachusetts, these players would be playing a different kind of baseball. They would be constantly reminded of every miscue, every wasted at-bat, every home run allowed. They would have their lives invaded, their thoughts hijacked, as this reporter and then that try to get a piece of the player to bring back to their editors and readers. I'm going to walk out on a limb and say that Anibal Sanchez doesn't throw a no-hitter with the Red Sox, and that Freddy Sanchez doesn't keep a season-long choke hold on the lead for the batting title. Hanley Ramirez, in a system like Boston's, loses a dimension of his skill, his speed, and has to see nearly twice as manny off-speed and breaking pitches than with Florida.

To be sure, things do not look good for Theo in the public eye. His fiasco last offseason now appears to be nothing more than pettiness, and the loss of Josh Byrnes and other members of the front office staff, not to mention the titanic collapse of the second largest payroll in the game, are nothing but egg on his face. In his defense, he's still got some time to go until we know whether or not he's going to be successful.

Sure, it sucks to be a Sox fan right now, but step back, take a deep breath, and show everyone how mature you can be. It'll be alright. Just wait and see.

Coco Puff

Really, there isn't a whole lot you can do anymore. Watch the games, listen to the broadcasts, sure, but it's hard to manage any sort of optimism about this team. I don't agree with Shaughnessy often, but his article (and Tony Massarotti's piece) in this morning's Globe (and Herald, respectively) does speak to certain points.

First of all, Francona is off the hook. No more criticisms (aside from the occasional poor decision). He's trying to catch up with the EA Sports All-Stars, er, Yankees, by throwing players that are at or below the league average level at a wall and hoping something, anything, will stick.

It hasn't.

I know Johnny Damon betrayed Sox fans, and I know Kevin Millar started to drive everybody a little bit crazy, but those two guys had, I think, just enough insanity lurking in their illiterate brains to help them look beyond slumps. I certainly don't want them back, but I would like to see a little more effort both on and off the field.

Manny can't play, we know that, and frankly, I believe the guy. He limps visibly when he's out there, and I believe that his spotty availibility is due more to the manager's desire to try and field a major-league offense than Manny being a flake. This whole lineup is in shambles, but don't blame the guys who are injured or their oft out of position replacements. Look instead to some of the regulars who are healthy and not producing.

Actually, at the moment, I can think of just one: Coco Crisp.

I hate to do that, to call out a single player, especially when I've been trying to back the guy all season. Here's the thing, though: he very visibly does not want to be here, and it's manifesting itself in his on-field production. You know his average (.264) and his on-base percentage (.322), and that his walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K) is a palid 0.53 (that's from striking out 15.6% of the time and walking only 7.6%), but did you know that he's only seeing 3.1 pitches per plate appearance?

That's awful. He's going up there and just hacking at everything, turning into this year's Edgar Renteria. Maybe I should cut him some slack, but he needs to remember that he's a professional trying his best to win. He may have landed the big contract, but he's still just a guy who's supposed to collect base hits, not hit for the cycle every game. He needs to become a roleplayer, and in order to do that he's going to have to swallow his pride a little bit. I don't doubt that he can do it, and I know he's capable of producing the way we all projected.

But right now, he just represents all the frustration and lack of motivation on this speedily sinking team.

Apologies

After some thought, reflection, and experience watching the debate at OverTheMonster.com unfold around my criticism of Terry Francona, I've come to a few conclusions and would like to make amends for past statements.

First of all, I like Terry Francona. I know, the last post was a fairly serious indictment of the man I held responsible for all that has happened in the last couple weeks. Fact of the matter is, though, that it's not his fault. I do believe he should be held accountable for Mirabelli/Beckett, but really, there isn't much better than Mike Timlin in the bullpen.

He's a pretty solid manager. He does appear a little less than inspirational during the in-game camera shots on NESN, and he's not as well-spoken as Tony LaRussa or Joe Torre, but he's the right kind of manager for Boston. He's a player's manager, giving guys the day off when they need it and rarely pointing the accusing finger. He could be better, it's true, but not too much.

Bob Ryan wrote a great piece in the Globe today that basically sums up the way we should be seeing things. He's got his finger on the pulse of things, and I think we could all use a little perspective, don't you?

Sorry, Tito.

He's Ruining It for Everybody

Terry Francona is losing these games.

Before I go any further, let me just say that this is not going to be a mind-numbing rant. There has been some awful play on both sides of the ball by both teams during this series, to be sure, but the manager needs to make the best decisions possible in-game so as to put his team in the best position possible.

Two things stand out: Josh Beckett pitching to Javy Lopez on Saturday, and Mike Timlin in the eigth inning.

I and others have written at length about the success Josh had pitching to Doug Mirabelli. For some reason, though, Javy Lopez was on the other side of the plate for his last three or so starts, resulting in terrible pitch selection and a particularly gruesome sight after chasing a wild pitch on Saturday. Not only has Beckett lost with Lopez, but Mirabelli hasn't even been given a second chance.

It really is inexcusable. There is hard evidence that Beckett and 'Belli are effective, and considering the fact that Lopez cares so much about his pitcher during a bases-loaded jam to wipe his glasses over the span of a minute. C'mon, gimme a break.

Finally, Mike Timlin in the eighth inning is not a good idea. Last year he was Iron Mike, but this year he's human. Tito deserves a little bit of a pass based solely on the fact that every pitcher we've got has been slumping lately, but I think the graver offense is watching a man with a recent history of not getting the job done continually be given the chance to extend that history.

I'm upset we're losing, certainly, but I'm more upset about the way this team is being handled in certain aspects. Even if, somehow, the numbers don't support these claims, isn't it at least time to shake things up?

*The postings are going to be spotty over the next few days, as they have over the last two weeks, but they'll kick into gear once I get back home.

Which Beckett Will We See Tonight?

"Beckett was OK tonight, all in all. He picked up a few K's and really only got hurt on a few home runs. Otherwise, he looked alright." Lather, rinse, and repeat through the first half of 2006.
Here's the difference between tonight's start and his last one:

Doug Mirabelli.

Remember, throw the curveball first and ask questions later.

Announcement

The blog author you are trying to reach is unavailable at this time. Please try again when the Red Sox get their heads out of their butts and he can think about them without violent thoughts. Thank you.

BEEP

Javier Lopez, Meet Javier Lopez

We did just like the message boards said we would, acquiring catcher Javy Lopez from Baltimore for a split of his remaining salary and a player to be named later (PTBNL). The question now is, does this make the Sox better for the time that they're going to be without Jason Varitek? Despite the defensive shortcomings of our new backstop, the answer is, "Yes."

It's really not necessary to look beyond more than the career lines for both Lopez and Doug Mirabelli, the man he will undoubtedly be platooning with. Lopez is a career .288 hitter, posting a .338 OBP and .494 SLG. Compare this with Mirabelli's .236/.313/.416 line, and you have a small offensive improvement over our backup. Lopez's offensive, unlike Mirabelli's, comes over more than 5000 career ABs, while Doug has only had 1268 career ABs, meaning that just on pure talent alone Lopez is a better player. Defensively, they're pretty much a wash for behind the plate. Neither player is renowned for their soft hands, and the fact that they're both getting up there in age doesn't help.

What we should be looking for is a catcher who can contribute at the plate and fill an offensive gap. He's no Barry Bonds, but he's not Kelly Shoppach, either. As the saying goes, when poorly timed injuries give you lemons...

NUMB3RS

If chicks dig the long ball, then Josh Beckett has done more than his fair share to help out the lonely hitters of the American League. In tonight's 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Indians, Beckett served up his 29th, 30th, and 31st home runs to Aaron Boone, Travis Hafner, and the man currently known as Choo. There used to be a time when Beckett, like Curt Schilling, was nigh-untouchable at home in Boston, but just like his mentor he has begun to reveal the chinks in his armor. We've all smartened up to the fact that wins and losses (13-6) are a terrible indication of a pitcher's success, so combined with all these long balls and an ERA of 5.00 (up .90 over his previous career high, set in 2002) it seems fair to say that Beckett has poorly acclimated to the Junior Circuit.

Or has he?

Without a doubt, the home runs have been a problem. Beckett is climbing a rather infamous ladder in an unintentional attempt to join Burt Blyleven and José Lima for the highest HR/Season totals, but otherwise his pitching numbers have been surprisingly good.

Nobody can expect a pitcher, particularly one of the young, hurler variety, to enter the Land of the Designated Hitter and continue to post NL-dominant numbers. With this in mind, it's fair to say that Josh has done alright. Wins and losses aren't that important, but he has picked up 13 and will probably end up in the 16-18 range, no small feat in the AL East. His K/9 number is down from his normal range of 8-9, but remains an impressive 7.5. The home runs are definitely up (1.88 HR/9), but his opponents are batting a weak .245 against him and only getting on base just barely 1/3 of the time (.313). Walks per nine innings are just barely higher than his career best at 2.95, and he's remained very close to his career average of 16 pitches per inning. A very telling overall sign of Beckett's success is his WHIP, which remains at 1.27.

Whew, that's a lot of numbers. I'm not usually one to just spit them out like so many sunflower seeds, but these numbers say one thing: Josh Beckett is pitching well. Again, the long ball is absolutely killing him, but outside of that he has been, essentially, his dominant self. The strikeouts, while a smidge lower, are still there and the walks are down. Opponents are really having a tough time stringing hits together against him with regularity, it's just that when they do, they tend to be capped off by a big fly into the bleachers.

Just like everyone else, I was upset to see Beckett lose in another crucial game, especially when it meant that the Yankees moved into first place. I just can't say that he's a terrible pitcher. My eyes tell me he's a risk on the hill, but the numbers convince me that he's about as good as one can expect for the first year in a new, hitter-friendly league.

All I can say is, let's try and cut him some slack, and hope he can rack up a few more of those insignificant W's.

Is This Where The Panic Sets In?

Mike Lowell bruses his right ankle in Tuesday night's game by fouling a pitch off of it during an AB; Jason Varitek moves to the 15 day DL, likely to miss 4 to 6 weeks with surgery on his left knee; Trot Nixon also goes to the 15 day DL with a grade 2 bicep tear; Tim Wakefield, eligible to return from his DL stint, is still not close to throwing; Keith Foulke, scheduled to pitch earlier this week in Pawtucket, was unable due to back stiffness; Matt Clement is, apparently, able to throw without pain, but is now dead to the Red Sox front office; Lenny DiNardo declared dead, search parties unsuccessful after phantom injury (that's a joke in case you think I'm serious).

David Wells, back from his knee injury, allowed 8 runs in 5.6 innings in his debut.

And the Yankees acquired Bobby Abreu.

Et tu, Brute?

I'm going to stick by my guns and maintain my position that the front office was justified in sitting on their hands during what proved to be a Playstation-esque trade weekend. The pitching talent available was not worthy of the asking price, and despite my displeasure with the Yankees' acquisition, I'm not sure I would've wanted to see Abreu in the Fens.

Still, what to do?

The worst part off all this is that the Varitek, Nixon, and Lowell injuries all fell after the deadline had already passed. That simply means that, instead of going out to try and trade for some spare parts to buy time while the regulars work their way back, Theo has to go out and play the waiver wire, and if you're doing fairly well in your fantasy league, you know what that's like as a winning team. Ken Huckaby was called up for this evening's game, but he's a far cry from what we'd hope for in a replacement. It's now, when Josh Bard is tearing up the National League, that we see why it was so nice to have a young catcher in the fold in the first place.

Logical moves from this point out go like this, followed by their results:

1. Any time Lowell misses because of his bruise should be filled by Alex Cora. Offensively, this is a downgrade considering the way Lowell has swung the bat this year, but defensively this is pretty close to a wash. Cora is known for his smarts and his glove. Though he's not a 3B by trade, that combo will help him fill in for the time being.

2. With Trotman out, Wily Mo is going to get the playing time he deserves, and we saw last night the kind of production he's capable of. His defense isn't going to be as good, as his reads on balls isn't as clean. His arm, however, is a cannon, and his offense has a little more spark to it than Trot, particularly as of late. We'll miss the defense, but hopefully the bat will make up for it. Also, expect Gabe Kapler to get some time here as well, given his favor with Tito.

3. It's really difficult to judge just how big of a loss Varitek is. Offensively, he's been miserable, and defensively, he's been limited to his ability to call games. Both he and Mirabelli have a tough time with base stealers, so don't expect much change there. Mirabelli is even more of an offensive hole than 'Tek, but all we really need him to do is keep the staff together. I suppose Huckaby will have to see some time, but I hope we'll witness a waiver pickup of a young catcher somewhere.

4. Pitching is where we will continue to struggle. Schilling and Beckett need to remain healthy, and I'd like to see Lester be a little more efficient with his pitch count. (Sidenote: Beckett and Mirabelli worked really well against Oakland, we might see an improvement of some sorts). Wells needs to get the rust out, and Wake needs to begin throwing as soon as he's able in order for them to help the rotation. Kyle Snyder was so effective as a long man that I think he'd be best used in that role from here on out, particularly since that's something we've been lacking since Bronson left. Jason "Three Run" Johnson, while not stellar, was not godawful tonight and probably earned himself another start. Unfortunately, he's going to have to be replaced at some point, and the options in the minors aren't making me salivate.

5. The bullpen is doing ok, but at any point we could see them start to slide, especially given Delcarmen's soreness.

The fact of the matter is this: the Red Sox need to tread water (minimum) for the month of August if they want to even consider the playoffs. There's still a chance that we'll see some sort of deal made soon on the waiver wire, but we're likely already carrying what we'll use in the meantime. It's here that the Sox really get to prove what they're made of. Hopefully it's sterner stuff than the talking heads believe.

And As The Clock Struck 4, Silence.

So, the Red Sox took my advice and stood pat. They didn't send Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen, Crisp, and a box of brand new baseballs to the Orioles for Jon Lieber, and it's a good thing. The Yankees got their man, too be sure, and in doing so they undoubtedly pushed the needle in the right direction as far as making the postseason and winning the AL East. Add to that tidbit the fact that Varitek is likely out of a few days (minimum) with a knee injury, and it all amounts to good reason for concern for Sox fans. But regardless, they made the right decision.

The WEEI phone lines are full of fans clamoring about how "we couldah had Roy Oswahlt oah Miguel Tejadar," but in reality, we know no such thing. The baseball media, both local and national, turns the trade deadline into Christmas in July. What gifts will we find waiting for us under the tree at 4 pm? The Hype would have you believe that World Series glory is simply a few middling prospects away, just around the corner, where you superstar and saviour is waiting to bring home the gold. Unfortunately, that's rarely the case. 2004 was an exception, a situation where people managed to gel as a team in a very rare way, to the point where it allowed them postseason swagger. Otherwise, the deadline is just another day and another chance to tweak the team.

Will Lester be the next Santana? Probably not, and he probably won't ever win a Cy Young. He will, however, keep the Sox out of the free agent market by being a young, talented arm under Sox control.

The point of the matter is, as I struggle not to fall asleep on my keyboard, that the Sox refused to mortgage the future. When Bobby Abreu collects his first base hit tonight, try not to have an anheurism. Sit back, relax, and go watch some highlights of Lester working out of a jam or Papelbon striking out the side. That'll remind you why we did what we did.

"With All Apologies to Clark Kent...

...David Ortiz is Superman, and the Indians had no kryptonite tonight."

Fishing For Contention: A Seattle Mariners Post

The last two years, the Seattle Mariners have been out of the race by about 8pm on Opening Day. The nice weather of June hits just in time for Safeco Field to act as a cheap tanning area, with music playing occasionally in the background and the occasional loudspeaker voice saying odd things like, "Now batting, Quinten McCracken..." By the 4th of July the only fireworks enjoyed at Safeco were the home runs hit off Gil Meche by the Red Sox or the Yankees. After the last two seasons, when someone asked how many games back the Mariners were in the AL West, they would not have been surprised to hear the answer, "All of them."

Being from the good side of Connecticut, and growing up a Red Sox fan, I could understand the woe the team was feeling, and was impressed by the number of fans that DID still go to the park, even if it was to see Roy Halladay pitch a one hitter. But I couldn't get into it. The Mariners of the last three years just didn't do it for me-- they didn't act like they loved baseball. They weren't exciting to watch as a whole, and there was no real energy that might have been converted into a winning streak. And then Felix Hernandez arrived.

At the end of last season, when Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre were hitting about 1 percentage point per million of their contracts, 19 year old Felix Hernandez stepped in and electrified baseball. His stellar debut didn't help the Mariners back into contention, but it did ignite a feeling of possibility and excitement that Seattle didn't seem to have had in a long time. Which made this year possible.

Baseball goes in cycles, we know this. Look at the Tigers and what they've done, the Rangers and what they've done, or the Marlins and what they've done. And then there's the Royals...well, I can only assume that the Royals' cycle of failure and success is like the orbit of Pluto, so while it will happen, it's still a long way coming. This season, however, the Seattle Mariners are an exciting, young team that is fighting in the AL West. Felix Hernandez hasn't pitched as everyone had hoped, but at 20, that's alright. Young players have stepped up in the tradition of Felix. Willie Bloomquist, Jeremy Reed, Yuniesky Betancourt, Kenji Johjima, and second string All-Star Jose Lopez (J-Lo) have all sizzled on the field this year. Jose Lopez is 22 years old and leads the team in Runs and RBI's. Yuniesky Betancourt is going to be one heluva ballplayer, and has played stellar defense to accompany his hitting-- oh, and he's 18 for his last 40 as of today. Johjima has stepped up filled the catcher void which has plagued the Mariners since Dan Wilson stopped playing everyday. People have blamed him for Felix's problems, saying he can't call a major league game, but the same problems have plagued Felix when Renee Rivera is behind the plate-- not to mention other pitchers such as Gil Meche and the entire Mariner bullpen have been fantastic this year with Johjima catching them. The Mariners are playing exciting baseball-- they're playing like they love to play, and that's fun baseball to watch.

So what does this mean for the Mariners? For baseball? It means that it's July 28th and the Mariners are 3.5 games behind Oakland in the division and that's without Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, or Jarrod Washburn doing much of anything. Sure, they're in last place, and sure the AL West of this year has become the NL West of last year (first place is .520) but it's light-years ahead of where that decimal point was in the past. It means that there's another contender in the mix, that with a few new ingredients (say, Ben Broussard, Eduardo Perez, and the release of Carl-a-saurus Rex aka Carl Everett) and a few key hits or pitches, the Mariners could take down Oakland, the Angels, and the Rangers and give us a race worth watching in the west.

-Witz-

A Player's Manager

There has been a lot of discussiong this morning about the way it appeared Tito "mailed it in" yesterday against the A's. Resting Varitek, sitting Gonzalez, and calling in Van Buren all appeared (in the minds of some fans) to indicate no real desire to grab this, the last game of the road trip, by the throat. As a result, we lost a game in the standings to the Yankees, and now come home to face the warming Angels tomorrow night.

Here's the fact of the matter: you can't accuse Francona of throwing in the towel. Sure, they have a day off today, but it's hard to argue that consecutive rest days for Varitek's knees aren't going to pay dividends in September. Van Buren pitcher reasonably well, and Cora just did his thing. We lost a game, yea, but remember:

We're still in first place.

Gonzalez A-Go-Go

Lugo. Julio Lugo. He's the new buzzword for trade rumors involving the Red Sox, and there's a contingent of fans salivating at picking up his Devil Ray. The response from the larger group of fans is: "Why?", and it's a good question. In my opinion, there is no reason that the Red Sox should pursue a trade to land them Lugo, and here's why.

The biggest argument in favor of Lugo coming to Boston is his offense. At the moment, Gonzalez is hitting well above his career AVG (.276 to .244) and is currently riding a career-high OBP (.320 to .294). Compare these numbers to Lugo, who's currently hitting .310/.374 (.279/.343 career), and to boot has four more home runs, four fewer strikeouts, and six more walks on the season.

We all knew coming into the season that Gonzo was going to be an offensive liability, but his defensive upside was seen as more than enough to counter this dead weight on the lineup. He started the season struggling, showing everyone that he was really good at striking out or flying out with runners on base when it was time for the bottom part of the lineup to produce. Funny thing is, though, that he's been able to turn it around dramatically over the last month or so. Instead of batting around .2000, he's pulled his AVG closer to .300. There are a number of possible reasons that help explain this upswing. First, there's the fact that he's finally hitting in a lineup with some punch to it, a lineup with so many above-average offensive players that there is little to no pressure on him at the plate (individual situations excluded). Second, there's Papa Jack, a hitting coach who has a proven track record off fixing the swings of numerous players, and the poster boy for his successes as a coach is none other than David Ortiz, who no longer gets tied up inside the same way he did in Minnesota, and just happens to be leading the majors in home runs and RBI. Whatever the reason, Alex is producing more than we had reason to expect. Yes, Lugo is an offensive upgrade, but not a huge one.

Defensively there have been numerous discussions concerning the fact that Gonzalez doesn't live up to the hype when under the scrutinizing eye of the ever-evolving defensive metrics: his range isn't great, and he's not the best turner of double-plays. His only plus skill? Soft hands. Lugo's defensive skills are considered to be at least on par or slightly better (especially where range is concerned).

Well, I don't buy it.

Somehow, soft hands has become a marginal tool for rating a defender. How quickly we can forget that Edgar Renteria, just one season ago, got to balls that he had no right to reach, but still miffed 30 times on the season. We all remember Nomar's fantastic off-balance tosses from the hole after his lunging stabs, but what about all the routine balls he kicked around? Gonzo's hands must not be underrated. Alone, his range may be surpassed by other shortstops, but alongside Mike Lowell, the holes on his sides become smaller. His arm is good, and his footwork and acrobatics are nothing short of dance on the infield dirt.

Don't forget that Gonzalez is also a commanding leader on the infield, taking charge when he needs to but knowing how to support his teammates when they're better positioned to make the play. He and Mike Lowell don't talk because they don't need to: they're telepathically linked. Close to seven years side by side in Miami have created and strengthened the type of on-field bond that is almost unheard of in the game today. Were Lugo to come over and displace Gonzalez, there would be unquestionably an adjustment period, and no matter how small that period might be it would still hamstring the best defense in the majors when it's patchwork pitching staff doesn't have that luxury.

This relationship and leadership between Gonzalez and Lowell comes into play not only this year, but next year as well. It is likely that Mark Loretta will not be retained for the 2007 campaign, and that 2004 draftee and current PawSox Dustin Pedroia will be up with the Big Club. Who better to teach the new kid the ropes than, in my mind, the best defensive left side in baseball?

Sure, Lugo could hit a few more dongs and work a few more walks, but Gonzalez's value to the 2006 Red Sox goes beyond his bat, and even manages to go beyond his glove. Breaking up that left side would be like DePodesta breaking up the best defensive middle infield (Izturis/Cora) and inserting Lumberjack Jeff Kent at second because of his bat. How did that work?

But of course, you didn't need me to tell you any of these things, did you? You've watched the games, you've seen the plays. The numbers can't cover your eyes completely, and they can't represent the significance of turning the double play with the bases loaded, one out and a one run lead in the bottom of the sixth inning and with the four-hole hitter at the plate.

I love the numbers when they're appropriate, but do me a favor.

Trust your eyes on this one.

Center Fielder Falling Down, Falling Down...

As if it weren't bad enough that he's only 5 for his last 45 at-bats, now the newest - sorry, fastest - member of Red Sox Nation has decided to practice for his USA Soccer tryout while in the middle of Sox games. Ok, ok. I'm definitely being a little too harsh. I really do feel sorry for the guy, so sorry, in fact, that I traded away Brad Wilkerson for him in my fantasy league... a Wilkerson who, even while slumping, is worth more than our local commercial darling. The Soxblogosphere is filled with two people: the optimists who think he'll turn it around eventually (find me there), and the naysayers who think this is just karma teaching the front office a lesson for failing to go the extra mile for Johnny Damon. Neither side is really right, in my opinion because, as usual, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle.

First of all, let's look at his track record. Anyone can look up his lines at Baseball Reference, so lets just talk about them instead of simply staring. He has upward-trending categories are AVG, HR, Ks, BB OBP, SLG, and ISO, so his dropoffs this year seem to be uncharacteristic of a very young, above-average outfielder, leading one to, at the very minimum, infer that something just isn't right. It is very unlikely that his extended slump is indication of a downward trend in his career, but rather that it's the result of some other factor. So what could it be?

After a relatively hot start (8 for 22, .333 AVG, 2 SB, 6 RBI), he broke his hand sliding headfirst into third in the final game at Baltimore of the opening road trip. After that, he didn't resurface until May 28, and he's been anything but hot since. A broken finger is nothing to laugh at when you make your living swinging a giant piece of wood at a ball, but by all accounts Crisp took his rehab very cautiously, returning only when he felt the most ready. For a while, it was feasible that he was simply going through his April later than everyone else, but now that we're into the end of July, that argument won't hold water. And now we're seeing more than just a lack of success at the plate, but a lack of concentration or confidence in the field as well.

The way Crisp has been dancing in center field leads me to believe that there's something else there. My guess? The pressure. Crisp has yet to be demonized by the Knights of the Keyboard, and he's still a likeable-enough character to avoid the worst kind of booing from the peanut gallery during home games, but everyone knows he's pressing. When Damon was traded and we acquired Crisp, the majority of journalists snapped him up as the Next Big Thing for the Sox OF. All of his stats pointed in the right direction, and he had yet to hit his prime, being only 26. He was exactly the sort of player the Sox wanted to build around. All the attention showered on him catapulted him out of the gate, but his injury brought his momentum to a screeching halt. Thing is, his media attention didn't decrease with his injury. In fact, it increased. He signed a 3 year extension and featured in several commercials for the Sox.

That's the worst possible combination for a Sox player when he's not producing. In my opinion, it's all this media pressure to perform to such a high level that's causing Coco to press on the field. The slump hasn't broken, and no amount of clichés has helped him string the hits together. We're now seeing what looks like a slow deterioration in Crisp's focus, something he's going to need to regain with (maybe) some time off. The game against Texas on the scheduled off-day didn't help, but we're not too far removed from the All-Star Break, so it shouldn't matter that much.

Then again, this could simply be a case of freak occurrences. Either way, let's hope Crisp recovers.

Sox Extend Themselves

Coming off a disappointing home series against Oakland, the Sox managed to sweep the Royals despite nonexistant offense for two of the three games. On Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, the Sox won back to back 1-0 games in the Fens for the first time since 1916. Josh Beckett, with Doug Mirabelli as his battery mate, pitched a masterful game against a poor Kansas City offense. Still, he earned the win without allowing a home run, and managed to keep the batters off-balance by mixing in his curveball and changeup with his fastball.

Immediately after the game, Francona mentioned that he pitched so well that Theo gave him a three-year contract extension. Nobody took him serious... except, he was. Beckett will be with the Sox through 2009 for roughly $10 million per year, and there is a club option that automatically kicks in for 2010 should Beckett start a specific number of games in '08 or '09.

Without a doubt, this extension caught everyone in New England off guard, something that has been happening more and more in this, The Second Reign of Theo. We've all heard about the trouble that was created by all the leaks to the media, and as he promised, Theo has zipped the mouths of most organization officials. It's created an atmosphere of control in what used to be a three-ring circus. The professionalism of the public faces of the Red Sox has increased exponentially over the shenanigans of 2003-2005, and given recent revelations in Seth Mnookin's new book, this is the road management wanted to take (and by management, I mean Theo).

Ortiz, Crisp, and Beckett all signed extensions, and in my opinion they were all good deals for both the player and the team. Never more than 3 years and an option or so, the deals reflect intent on both sides to exist on common ground. All of these in-season signings have been handled very well, almost as if the front office learned it's lesson, acknowledging that players can perceive hesitation to even discuss contract status during the season.

While Beckett has been nowhere near the lights-out ace we hoped for upon his acquisition, he has pitched well. Most of the frustration directed at him seems to be more directed at the fact that he has not pitched efficiently, and indeed, sometimes not pitched at all, just thrown. His 27 HR allowed leads the majors, and his fastball has become a crutch during clutch situations. Still, Beckett is averaging close to 8 K's per game, and his WHIP is 1.29 (and a BABIP of .263), meaning he's doing a decent job (and being helped by the best Sox defense in years). Despite visible struggles adapting to the American League, Beckett is only 26 years old and screams "upside". Signing him makes complete sense, as it locks him up for the first 2 years of free agency at a price likely to be significantly below what he would command on the open market.

This is a signing RSN should be excited about.

A Revoltin' Development

One out of four ain't bad, right? Wrong. There's really nothing like losing 3 games (two of which were blowouts) to the worst offense in the American League. A tough extra-inning loss, the implosion of our young ace in waiting, and an inning-long brain fart from the stopgap starter all helped hack and slash the Sox' lead in the AL East to a mere 1/2 game. So, who's up next? The Kansas City Royals.

Normally, I feel like most of us would clap our hands and rub them together excitedly about the prospect of welcoming Baseball's Joke Franchise into the Fens for the 3 game series, but with the way the Sox have been playing it's difficult to maintain that optimism unabated.
The bats seem to have finally his the skids in this last series, which really is an unfortunate development.

So what are our silver linings? Well, there are two. First, David Wells may be able to begin minor league rehab starts sometime within the next two weeks, and second, Wily Mo Peña will likely be rejoining the club tomorrow. And me with a softball doubleheader. Sheesh.

On The Hill

The Red Sox are riding a three game losing streak, and they manner in which they have coughed up the L's speaks volumes about the trouble with the Boston pitching: it's inconsistent. The only starter that has been truly dominant has been Curt Schilling, returning to the form we saw in 2004, and for relievers, Jonathan Papelbon has been absolutely lights-out all season, though lately we've seen some balls start to get hit a litte harder. For the sake of, (ahem) brevity, I'll be short on pitchers on the DL. So if you're looking for something interesting about Clement, Wells, or Foulke, you'll have to look elsewhere.

As before, I'll be using the statistics available at RedSoxStats.com and MLB.com to complete this review. Great sites, very helpful, check them out.

STARTERS

1. Curt Schilling: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Ideally, we hoped to get our ace back, something that was lacking from the 2005 team. Realistically, we just hoped to get an effective pitcher who can eat innings and provide guidance to the rest of the staff. WHAT WE GOT: Our wildest dreams. Almost. He's posted a 11-3 win-loss record, but in all fairness, it should be better. Unfortunately, Schilling has fallen victim to the Curse of the Quiet Bats and the Hex of the Ancient Bullpen, which will be discussed a bit more later. He's also had trouble with home runs on the road, having served up 19 long balls for opposing hitters. Still, he's been able to control the pace of the majority of his starts and command the respect his presence should demand. His strikeout numbers are still pretty solid (124) and his walks are very low (16), but his OBA is pushing .300. as is his BABIP, meaning that when they're hitting him, they're really hitting him hard. His fly ball (FB) ratio has started to climb, which is certainly something to be worried about considering he lives off the fastball, but all in all, Schilling has been everything we could have hoped for.

2. Tim Wakefield: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: An innnings-eating, knuckleball-tossing veteran who eats innings and picks up his share of wins without much fanfare. WHAT WE GOT: Exactly what we wanted... but no run support. Wakefield's still under .500 with his record, but that's mostly because the sox were averaging just under 3 runs/game for most of his starts. Add to that the fact that Josh Bard was just terrible during his first four starts, and we see Wake as probably one of the biggest victim of circumstance on the staff.

3. Josh Beckett: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: The ace of the 2003 World Series. WHAT WE GOT: A batting-cage pitching machine with an 11-5 record. Beckett has given up 27, 27 home runs in his 19 starts, and somehow still hasn't caught on to the fact that AL hitters can really turn around a fastball. His solution to his inconsistency has, for some bizarre reason, been to throw even more fastballs. His ERA has swollen to a disappointing 5.13, and his whip is somehwere around 1.3. Beckett needs to learn the breaking ball and he needs to put his pride aside. We all know he would give his right arm for the team, but will he give the fastball?

4. Jon Lester: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: That's an interesting question. I guess we really just wanted a starter who wasn't Jason Johnson, and we seem to have gotten him. We also wanted to see the crown jewel of the Sox farm system come up for his debut. WHAT WE GOT: A pitcher with amazing poise, average stuff, and a lot of confidence. He's pulled 4 wins out of a hat that includes a 1.61 WHIP. Somehow, Lester has been able to load the bases on countless occasions against both the best and worst lineups in the majors, and still manage to get out of jams. His cutter is apparently his pitch of choice, and he throws it with regularity. His presence is refreshing, and although he will certainly need to develop his talents, he's got a great head on his shoulders and a major-league demeanor.

5. Matt Clement (DL) // David Wells (DL) // Jason Johnson (Oblivion) // Kyle Snyder // Lenny DiNardo (DL): WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Anything. WHAT WE GOT: A little of this, a little of that. The struggles of Matt Clement are well documented on this site, David Wells has barely pitched during the 2006 campaign, and both are on the disabled list, so they're not doing a whole lot are they? When Clement was healthy, he was little better than Johnson, despite a much higher salary and long-term deal. DiNardo wasn't very good, but he didn't make me want to slit my wrists either, though maybe that had more to do with the fact that I had zero expectations for him. The brightest spot in all of this is Kyle Snyder, who pitcher once against the Nationals for a win and was then promptly shipped to Pawtucket for some more seasoning. He will, in fact, be coming up for today's game against the A's, facing a lineup more intimidating than Washington.

RELIEVERS:

The largest problem with the bullpen thus far had been overreliance on the older relievers Tavarez and Seanez. However, at some point in the middle of June Terry Francona came out and said publicly that he was finally going to do what the citizens of the blogosphere so yearned for: he was going to start leaning more heavily on his younger arms, and that's exactly what he did. And that was how the Hex of the Ancient Bullpen was (mostly) cast aside.

1. Julian Tavarez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: The reliever who posted a 2.38 ERA in St. Louis during 2004. WHAT WE GOT: More streaks than my car window. Tavarez has shown that he's absolutely capable of shutting down offenses for several innings at a time (he was a starting pitcher for the Dominican Republic during the Carribbean Series), but he's also shown that he'll suddenly lose the ability to stay out of the middle of the strike zone, evidenced by his 1.51 WHIP. Only thing is, he lacks Lester's ability to get out of the jams he gets into. As of late, his usefulness has been as the mopup guy, as he came out of the 'pen two nights ago to save his compadres from burnout.

2. Rudy Seanez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: I guess everyone else was hoping for the pitcher that was dominant with the Padres last year, but I was honestly not hoping for much. WHAT WE GOT: I won. Seanez has been terrible. His ERA is close to 5 and his WHIP is over 1.6. His fastball doesn't use enough gas to embarass opposing batters and his breaking ball hasn't been consistent enough to throw late in counts. He's coughed up a lot of runs in crucial situations, and he's so far in Francona's doghouse that he didn't take the hill until the 19th, that's right, the 19th, inning in the South Side Marathon. All he really has going for him is that he seems like a nice guy who feels bad about sucking it up. That really isn't much, though.

3. Mike Timlin: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: The same guy who anchored the pen in 2004 and 2005. WHAT WE GOT: Reliability, but the need for other pitches. I would use Timlin as the posterboy for what the World Baseball Classic can do to a player who isn't prepared correctly to throw in pressure situations. I think he pushed too hard too early, and the result was a DL stint and the necessity of other, more rarely used off-speed pitches. Regardless, I don't get too worried when he takes the hill late.

4. Manny Delcarmen: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Our hometown hero. WHAT WE GOT: What we wanted. Delcarmen was originally being used so infrequently he could've been referred to as the Human Irregular Stream, but when Tito made his announcement, Delcarmen found himself getting the call. And the funny thing is, he's responded. He's had to make up for early outings where he coughed up runs, but he's learning how to throw his curveball for strikes and how, when it comes off of his mid-90's fastball, it makes hitters look silly. He could be good for several years.

5. Craig Hansen: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: A flamethrowing rookie with "Future Elite Closer" on his back over his number. WHAT WE GOT: A flamethrower learning the ropes. Hansen looks to, and probably will, be very good for some time, but he's still only one year out of St. John's. It's inappropriate to expect that he would be lights-out with less than one full year of service in the minors. As he spends more time here, I believe we'll see him improve significantly.

6. Javier Lopez: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: A younger Mike Myers. WHAT WE GOT: A younger Mike Myers. Sit and stew on that for a while. You'll find you won't get too far.

7. Jonathan Papelbon: WHAT WE HOPED FOR: An above-average rookie starting pitch with the potential to lead the rotation into the next several seasons. WHAT WE GOT: A closer best summed up in the following statement: "Through his first 29 outings, he had posted a ridiculous ERA of 0.30. That's not an ERA; that's a blood-alcohol level at spring break. What's next? World peace?" He's been absolutely filthy all year long, exhibiting not only the stuff but the mental makeup to be an elite closer for at least this season. (I'm pretty sure he's batshit crazy... This guy talks about his Scrabble skillz as if he were the leading dunk king on the AND1 Tour.) His long term projection looks to be as a starter, but I know I for one am certainly glad he's as good as he is. (Doesn't hurt that he only cost me $6 in my Roto Auction.)

8. Keith Foukle (DL): WHAT WE HOPED FOR: Better than 2005, close to 2004. WHAT WE GOT: A pitcher on the mend, but one who is definitely on his way to recovery. A changeup that looked flat in the first part of the season began to really dip in the zone as he racked up the appearances. He's still trying to make his way back to the bullpen, and it will be interesting to see how he fits in with the general success of the younger relievers. (I could see Seanez getting stashed in a trash can somewhere...)

Following the leads of Schilling and Papelbon, the Sox' pitching in 2006 has been better than bad but not quite as good as it could (and should) be. I'm still holding out hope that Beckett wil learn to make the necessary adjustments to succeed in this league, but even if he doesn't, I expect him to be great should we make the postseason.

First Half Awards

With the three-day distraction also known as the All-Star Break almost over, it's time to get back into the full-swing baseball schedule. But before we do that, there is plenty of baseball from the first half to look back on.

A.J.'s First Half Awards

AL MVP
David Ortiz, DH, Boston RedSox- Nobody means more to his team than Big Papi. There are plenty of websites proclaiming Jermaine Dye or Jim Thome as MVP--but it rarely if ever works if your team has two legitimate MVP canidates. The writers may not be able to decide who is more valuable (Dye or Thome), and split fairly evenly...giving Big Papi enough space to finally lock up his MVP.

NL MVP
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, L.A. Dodgers- The popular, if not unanimous choice, is Albert Pujols. It is, however, my opinion that the Cardinals are on the verge of putting it all together (or the Reds are about to fall apart...), meaning that there are not likely to be very many meaningful games in St. Louis in September. This is also the case with David Wright. The media attention will all be focused on the major races...and the NL West should be a race. I may be wrong, and I may just love to root for the underdog, but could Nomar's bat be the difference in the NL West in September? If it is, and the Dodgers win, look out. Vladimir Guerrero got hot at the right time in 2004 and captured his AL MVP that way.

AL Cy Young
Johan Santana, LHP, Minnesota Twins- Alright, I'll admit it. My gut, heart, head, EVERYTHING says Francsico Liriano should win. So why pick Johan? I just can't believe that Liriano is going to be preforming at this level the rest of the way. Something HAS to happen...second time around the league, maybe he has some trouble? Maybe he runs out of gas at the end of a long year (even though they kept him in the bullpen to start the year to keep this from being an issue)? I can't just hand it to the rookie. By now, it should be known that the media is in love with Johan Santana and if he preforms the way he has been (leading the league in strikeouts with a 2.95 ERA) he has to be the favorite.

NL Cy Young
Jason Schmidt, RHP, San Francisco Giants- The popular choice is Brandon Webb. Both Webb (2.65) and Schmidt (2.78) are preforming at high levels right now--but who is more likely to "give?" I say Webb. Webb's heavy groundball style is more prone to being exposed than Schmidt's power. Granted, Jason is no longer the K-artist he once was...he still stands a better chance of avoiding a big slump that would damage his numbers. Bronson Arroyo, a personal favorite, is left out of this conversation beacuse it appears that he is beginning to slow (his last few starts have been rough--seeing his ERA ride from 2.31 to 3.12) perhaps because of the league catching on to his style and pitches.

AL Rookie of the Year
Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota Twins- He has been simply dominant. Even with him having a few rough starts down the stretch, it's not hard to imagine him finishing as one of the top five starting pitchers in the American League. While I feel that Johan will still capture the Cy, Francisco can not be denied of the Rookie of the Year.

NL Rookie of the Year
Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida Marlins- Everybody in America loves the underdog. For a Rule V guy to go from going to camp unsure of having a spot on a major league roster to the All-Star game is impressive. He ranks second in the majors only to Chase Utley in OPS as a second baseman.

AL Comeback Player of the Year
Jim Thome, DH, Chicago WhiteSox- Is there any question? The guy went from having an injury plagued year in which he hit .207-7-30 in 59 games to having 30 home runs (along with a .298 average, and 77 RBI) by the All-Star break. He could win this award without going yard one more time this year.

NL Comeback Player of the Year
Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, L.A. Dodgers- I don't think I need to go over the Nomar Garciaparra story. The guys battled back from all sorts of doubt and injuries and issues to being one of the top offensive players in Major League Baseball. He has logged a .358 average to date...just like the Nomar of old!

AL Manager of the Year
Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers- Sure, the Tigers have some outstanding young talent--including some of the best young arms in the game--but Leyland's attitude and personality has helped blend this primarily veteran club with the young talents that they have and create the best team in baseball. Sure, I thought the Tigers would be solid...but who saw this coming?

NL Manager of the Year
Joe Girardi, Florida Marlins- It appears that the Marlins are actually going to AVOID 100 losses this year. If you had told me that they would avoid 100 losses at the beginning of the year, I'd have called you crazy. Good job by Joe not only in winning some games but it appears that his influence on these young guys has made a majorly positive impact.

In The Field, At The Plate

As teams across the major leagues walk out under the lights for what is the first game of the 2006 baseball season, let's take a look at what the Sox have actually done on the field and at the plate during the first 81. In case you didn't know, the Sox are 3 games in front of the second place Yankees in the American League East, an indicator of no small amount of success, but by no means an indication of stability. With the exception of the 16-2 run against the National League in Interleague competition, the Sox have been hit or miss all year. But let's go and look at the Olde Towne Team on a player by player basis, and see if we can't determine just what they're all about. Special thanks to RedSoxStats.com, Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com for the use of their stats.

Numbers waiting to be crunched: Check out RedSoxStats.com for where I got my numbers, specifically.


o. David Ortiz: I'm going to skip the formalities here. This guy is, as Trup so eloquently said, Superman. He's already had 3 game-winning hits at home, and despite the troubles the Maddon Shift has given him, the power numbers are still there. A contract extension assured that Papi will be in the Fens for some time to come.